阅读说明：本技术 一种山洪灾害预警方法、装置、服务器及存储介质 (Mountain torrent disaster early warning method, device, server and storage medium ) 是由 李淑祎 杨承奂 胡辉 宋杰 于 2020-06-30 设计创作，主要内容包括：本发明实施例提供了一种山洪灾害预警方法、装置、服务器及存储介质。通过获取监测数据,根据监测数据中的标准水流量对初始水文预报模型进行率定,将率定后的模型作为目标水文预报模型,根据目标水文预报模型对监测数据进行洪水预报计算,以及根据演进漫溢模型对预报计算结果进行演进漫溢计算,得到当前监测区域的漫溢淹没分析结果,进一步根据漫溢淹没分析结果确定是否生成预警信息以用于对当前监测区域进行报警。并且,通过结合目标水文预报模型和演进漫溢模型对监测数据进行分析,达到一体化采集数据、分析数据以及报警的目的,实现提高山洪灾害预警并减少人力成本的效果,同时提高预警精度以及预警效率,满足精确且高效预警山洪灾害的需求。(The embodiment of the invention provides a mountain torrent disaster early warning method, a mountain torrent disaster early warning device, a server and a storage medium. The method comprises the steps of obtaining monitoring data, calibrating an initial hydrologic prediction model according to standard water flow in the monitoring data, taking the calibrated model as a target hydrologic prediction model, carrying out flood prediction calculation on the monitoring data according to the target hydrologic prediction model, carrying out evolution overflow calculation on a prediction calculation result according to an evolution overflow model to obtain an overflow analysis result of a current monitoring area, and further determining whether to generate early warning information for warning the current monitoring area according to the overflow analysis result. And the monitoring data are analyzed by combining the target hydrologic forecast model and the evolution overflow model, so that the purposes of integrally acquiring data, analyzing data and alarming are achieved, the effects of improving the mountain torrent disaster early warning and reducing the labor cost are achieved, the early warning precision and the early warning efficiency are improved, and the requirements of accurately and efficiently early warning the mountain torrent disaster are met.)

1. A mountain torrent disaster early warning method is characterized by comprising the following steps:

acquiring monitoring data of a current monitoring area, wherein the monitoring data comprises water level data, rainfall data, soil moisture content data, evapotranspiration data and water flow data;

carrying out parameter calibration on the initial hydrologic prediction model of the current monitoring area according to the standard water flow of the current monitoring area to obtain a target hydrologic prediction model;

performing flood forecasting calculation on the monitoring data based on the target hydrologic forecasting model, and performing evolution overflow calculation on a forecasting calculation result based on an evolution overflow model to obtain an overflow and submergence analysis result of the current monitoring area;

and if the overflow flooding analysis result is determined to exceed a set early warning threshold value, generating alarm information, wherein the alarm information is used for alarming the current monitoring area.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the parameter calibration of the initial hydrographic forecasting model of the current monitoring area according to the standard water flow of the current monitoring area to obtain a target hydrographic forecasting model comprises:

inputting the rainfall data, the soil moisture content data and the evapotranspiration data into the initial hydrological forecasting model to obtain predicted water flow;

calculating a minimum absolute error between the standard water flow and the predicted water flow by using a global optimization algorithm;

iteratively adjusting the model parameters of the initial hydrologic prediction model according to the minimum absolute error until the minimum absolute error reaches a set threshold or the iteration times reaches set times, and obtaining the target hydrologic prediction model.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the target hydrologic forecast model is a New Anguillar hydrologic forecast model, and wherein performing flood forecast calculations on the monitoring data based on the target hydrologic forecast model comprises:

inputting the rainfall data, the soil moisture content data and the evapotranspiration data into the target hydrologic prediction model, and sequentially performing evaporation calculation, runoff production calculation, water source division calculation and confluence calculation according to relevant parameters of the target hydrologic prediction model to obtain first water flow of an upper outlet section of each unit basin of the current monitoring area;

performing river confluence calculation on each first water flow to obtain second water flows of lower outlet sections of each unit basin in the current monitoring area;

and linearly superposing the second water flow of each unit watershed of the current monitoring area, and taking the superposed result of the second water flow as the forecast calculation result of the current monitoring area.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the target hydrologic forecast model is a terrain-based hydrologic model, and wherein performing flood forecast calculations on the monitoring data based on the target hydrologic forecast model comprises:

acquiring topographic data of the current monitoring area, constructing a digital elevation model of the current monitoring area according to the topographic data, and dividing the digital elevation model into a plurality of hydrological units, wherein at least one hydrological unit is used for forming a unit basin;

extracting the terrain indexes of the hydrological units from the digital elevation model, and calculating the area distribution function of the hydrological units included in each type of terrain index in a statistical manner;

calculating the output flow of all hydrological units of each type of terrain index according to the area proportion corresponding to each type of terrain index and the area distribution function, and accumulating the output flow of all hydrological units of each type of terrain index to obtain a third water flow of the upper outlet section of each unit basin of the current monitoring area;

performing river confluence calculation on each third water flow by adopting an equal current time line method to obtain fourth water flow of a lower outlet section of each unit basin in the current monitoring area;

and linearly superposing the fourth water flow of each unit basin of the current monitoring area, and taking the superposition result of the fourth water flow as the forecast calculation result of the current monitoring area.

5. The method of claim 3, wherein the evolutionary flooding model comprises a flood evolutionary model and a flood inundation model, and performing evolutionary flooding calculation on the forecast calculation result based on the evolutionary flooding model to obtain a flooding inundation analysis result of the current monitoring area comprises:

performing flood routing calculation on each second water flow rate included in the forecast calculation result based on the flood routing model to obtain a first flood routing result of a lower outlet section of each unit basin, wherein the flood routing model is an St-Venn equation set, and the first flood routing result includes average flow rates and average water levels of each section of each unit basin in the current monitoring area;

and performing flood overflow and submerging analysis on the first flood evolution result based on the flood submerging model, and calculating a first overflow and submerging analysis result of the current monitoring area by adopting a finite volume method of a non-structural grid, wherein the first overflow and submerging analysis result at least comprises the submerging water depth of each unit basin of the current monitoring area.

6. The method of claim 3, wherein the evolutionary flooding model comprises a hydrology model and a flood flooding model, and performing evolutionary flooding calculation on the forecast calculation result based on the evolutionary flooding model to obtain a flooding analysis result of the current monitoring area comprises:

performing flood routing calculation on each second water flow included in the target water flow based on a Mass Jing root tank storage equation and a water quantity balance equation in the hydrological model to obtain a second flood routing result of a lower outlet section of each unit basin, wherein the second flood routing result includes an upper section inflow, a lower section outflow, an upper section water level and a lower section water level of each unit basin in the current monitoring area;

and performing flood overflow and submerging analysis on the second flood evolution result based on the flood submerging model, and calculating a second overflow and submerging analysis result of the current monitoring area by adopting a finite volume method of a non-structural grid, wherein the second overflow and submerging analysis result at least comprises the submerging water depth of each unit basin of the current monitoring area.

7. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

and correcting the target hydrologic forecast model in real time according to the monitoring data and the historical data, and performing flood forecast calculation on the monitoring data according to the corrected target hydrologic forecast model.

8. The utility model provides a mountain torrent calamity early warning device which characterized in that includes:

the monitoring data acquisition module is used for acquiring monitoring data of a current monitoring area, wherein the monitoring data comprises water level data, rainfall data, soil moisture content data, evapotranspiration data and water flow data;

the parameter calibration module is used for carrying out parameter calibration on the initial hydrologic prediction model of the current monitoring area according to the standard water flow of the current monitoring area to obtain a target hydrologic prediction model;

the overflow and submergence analysis result generation module is used for carrying out flood forecast calculation on the monitoring data based on the target hydrological forecast model and carrying out evolution overflow and submergence calculation on the forecast calculation result based on the evolution overflow and submergence model to obtain the overflow and submergence analysis result of the current monitoring area;

and the early warning module is used for generating alarm information if the overflow submerging analysis result is determined to exceed a set early warning threshold, wherein the alarm information is used for alarming the current monitoring area.

9. A server comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the method of torrential flood disaster warning according to any one of claims 1 to 7 when executing the computer program.

10. A storage medium containing computer-executable instructions, which when executed by a computer processor implement the torrential flood disaster warning method of any one of claims 1-7.

Technical Field

The embodiment of the invention relates to a mountain torrent disaster early warning technology, in particular to a mountain torrent disaster early warning method, a mountain torrent disaster early warning device, a server and a storage medium.

Background

The mountain torrent disasters are strong in burst property, strong in regional property, strong in seasonality, high in occurrence rate and large in harmfulness, most of the mountain torrent disasters occur at the junction of mountain areas and cities and countryside, the mountainous area and the countryside are mainly concentrated in rainy seasons and typhoon seasons, prediction and prevention difficulty is large, the mountain torrent is swelled and fallen down, the disasters are fast to happen, the disasters are difficult to avoid, the damage to residential areas in low-lying areas is particularly serious, and life and property losses such as casualties, house collapse, traffic interruption, cultivated land damage and the like are easily caused.

At present, the construction of a monitoring, early warning and forecasting system for the mountain torrent disasters is not perfect, most areas with frequent mountain torrent disasters do not have the mountain torrent early warning and forecasting system, or the system has more defects, such as low precision, no simulation forecasting function and the like. Therefore, the early warning method for the mountain torrent disaster in the prior art is imperfect in early warning mode, and cannot meet the requirement of accurately and efficiently early warning and forecasting the mountain torrent.

Disclosure of Invention

The embodiment of the invention provides a mountain torrent disaster early warning method, a mountain torrent disaster early warning device, a server and a storage medium, and aims to achieve the effect of improving the mountain torrent disaster early warning precision and early warning efficiency.

In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for early warning of a mountain torrent disaster, including:

acquiring monitoring data of a current monitoring area, wherein the monitoring data comprises water level data, rainfall data, soil moisture content data, evapotranspiration data and water flow data;

carrying out parameter calibration on the initial hydrologic prediction model of the current monitoring area according to the standard water flow of the current monitoring area to obtain a target hydrologic prediction model;

performing flood forecasting calculation on the monitoring data based on the target hydrologic forecasting model, and performing evolution overflow calculation on a forecasting calculation result based on an evolution overflow model to obtain an overflow and submergence analysis result of the current monitoring area;

and if the overflow flooding analysis result is determined to exceed a set early warning threshold value, generating alarm information, wherein the alarm information is used for alarming the current monitoring area.

In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a mountain torrent disaster early warning device, including:

the monitoring data acquisition module is used for acquiring monitoring data of a current monitoring area, wherein the monitoring data comprises water level data, rainfall data, soil moisture content data, evapotranspiration data and water flow data;

the parameter calibration module is used for carrying out parameter calibration on the initial hydrologic prediction model of the current monitoring area according to the standard water flow of the current monitoring area to obtain a target hydrologic prediction model;

the overflow and submergence analysis result generation module is used for carrying out flood forecast calculation on the monitoring data based on the target hydrological forecast model and carrying out evolution overflow and submergence calculation on the forecast calculation result based on the evolution overflow and submergence model to obtain the overflow and submergence analysis result of the current monitoring area;

and the early warning module is used for generating alarm information if the overflow submerging analysis result is determined to exceed a set early warning threshold, wherein the alarm information is used for alarming the current monitoring area.

In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a server, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, where the processor implements the torrential flood disaster warning method according to any one of the first aspect when executing the computer program.

In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a storage medium containing computer-executable instructions, which when executed by a computer processor, implement the torrential flood disaster warning method according to any one of the first aspect.

According to the technical scheme provided by the embodiment, the initial hydrologic prediction model is calibrated according to the standard water flow in the monitoring data by acquiring the monitoring data, the calibrated model is used as a target hydrologic prediction model, flood prediction calculation is carried out on the monitoring data according to the target hydrologic prediction model, and evolution overflow calculation is carried out on the prediction calculation result according to the evolution overflow model, so that the overflow and submergence analysis result of the current monitoring area is obtained, and whether early warning information is generated or not for warning the current monitoring area is further determined according to the overflow and submergence analysis result. The problem of many dependence manual work of mountain torrent calamity early warning mode among the prior art is solved. And the monitoring data are analyzed by combining the target hydrologic forecast model and the evolution overflow model, so that the purposes of integrally acquiring data, analyzing data and alarming are achieved, the effects of improving the mountain torrent disaster early warning and reducing the labor cost are achieved, the early warning precision and the early warning efficiency are improved, and the requirements of accurately and efficiently early warning the mountain torrent disaster are met.

Drawings

Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for early warning of a mountain torrent disaster according to an embodiment of the present invention;

FIG. 2 is a logic diagram for determining overflow flood analysis results according to an embodiment of the present invention;

fig. 3 is a schematic flow chart illustrating a method for warning a mountain torrent disaster according to a second embodiment of the present invention;

fig. 4 is a schematic flow chart of a method for early warning of a mountain torrent disaster according to a third embodiment of the present invention;

fig. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of a mountain torrent disaster warning device according to a fourth embodiment of the present invention;

fig. 6 is a schematic structural diagram of a server according to a fifth embodiment of the present invention.

Detailed Description

The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples. It is to be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not limiting of the invention. It should be further noted that, for the convenience of description, only some of the structures related to the present invention are shown in the drawings, not all of the structures.