阅读说明：本技术 一种新能源发电目标的分配方法及系统 (New energy power generation target distribution method and system ) 是由 刘冬 鉴庆之 郑志杰 冯亮 孙东磊 汪湲 葛杨 孙毅 刘蕊 王宪 杨思 曹相阳 于 2021-07-13 设计创作，主要内容包括：本发明提供了一种新能源发电目标的分配方法及系统,方法包括基于新能源发电的影响因素,确定若干测算维度；计算分区下各测算维度的量化值；对所述测算维度的量化值进行加权计算,得到分区得分,根据所述分区得分,将新能源发展目标进行分解。本发明综合考虑影响新能源发展的因素,基于分区本身自然资源、电力系统强度等差异化,确定测算维度,对所述测算维度进行量化,并基于加权计算,得到分区得分,基于所述分区得分为各个分区划定发展目标。分解全省风电、光伏规划规模,为基层行政区域科学制定风电、光伏发展规划提供参考。(The invention provides a new energy power generation target distribution method and system, wherein the method comprises the steps of determining a plurality of measurement and calculation dimensions based on influence factors of new energy power generation; calculating the quantized value of each measurement and calculation dimension under the partition; and carrying out weighted calculation on the quantitative value of the measurement and calculation dimensionality to obtain a partition score, and decomposing the new energy development target according to the partition score. The method comprehensively considers factors influencing the development of new energy, determines measurement and calculation dimensions based on the differentiation of the natural resources of the partitions, the strength of the power system and the like, quantifies the measurement and calculation dimensions, obtains partition scores based on weighted calculation, and defines development targets for all the partitions based on the partition scores. And the wind power and photovoltaic planning scale of the whole province is decomposed, and a reference is provided for scientifically formulating the wind power and photovoltaic development plan in the basic administrative region.)

1. A new energy power generation target distribution method is characterized by comprising the following steps:

determining a plurality of measurement and calculation dimensions based on the influence factors of new energy power generation;

calculating the quantized value of each measurement and calculation dimension under the partition;

and carrying out weighted calculation on the quantitative value of the measurement and calculation dimensionality to obtain a partition score, and decomposing the new energy development target according to the partition score.

2. The method for distributing the new energy power generation target according to claim 1, wherein the measurement and calculation dimensions comprise installed status, natural resource endowment, developable projects, grid supply load, load fluctuation and grid asset scale.

3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the quantized value M of the installed status of the division a is the quantized value M of the installed status_AComprises the following steps:

n represents the total number of partitions.

4. The method according to claim 2, wherein the natural resource innate endowment quantization value R of the partition A is a value obtained by dividing the natural resource innate endowment_ASaid R is_AThe method comprises the steps of partitioning the exploitable wind resource scale and the product of the exploitable photovoltaic power generation area and the illumination intensity.

5. The method according to claim 2, wherein the quantitative value of the developable item in the partition a includes a developable item size P_AAnd land area S for developing new energy projects_A。

6. The method for assigning a new energy generation target according to claim 2, wherein the quantized value L of the grid supply load in the partition a is set to_AThe predicted annual network is provided with a load maximum.

7. The method according to claim 2, wherein the section A is a section where the quantized value W of the load fluctuation is_ASatisfies the following conditions:

wherein W_i(i 1,2,3 … … 8760) to supply load to the network at a certain time in the total area,and providing load for the annual average network of the general district.

8. The method according to claim 2, wherein the quantified value of the grid asset size in the partition a comprises a transformation capacity N_1AAnd line length N_2A。

9. The method for assigning a new energy generation goal according to claim 2, wherein the division score is calculated by:

in the formula, F_L、F_M、F_P、F_R、F_NAnd F_WAnd respectively representing the weights of the network supply load, the installed current situation, the developable project, the natural resource endowment, the power grid asset scale and the load fluctuation dimension.

10. The distribution system of the new energy power generation target is characterized by comprising

The influence factor analysis unit determines a plurality of measurement and calculation dimensions based on the influence factors of the new energy power generation;

the information processing unit is used for calculating the quantized value of each measurement and calculation dimension under the partition;

and the target decomposition unit is used for carrying out weighted calculation on the quantitative values of the measurement and calculation dimensions to obtain partition scores, and decomposing the new energy development target according to the partition scores.

Technical Field

The invention relates to the technical field of new energy power generation, in particular to a new energy power generation target distribution method and system.

Background

According to the development situation and the target of wind power and photovoltaic in China, each province successively develops provincial-level middle-long-term new energy development plans, and the annual wind power and photovoltaic development scale is determined. On one hand, the peak regulation of the power system is mainly executed by a coal-regulating and electric generating set, a pumped storage, an inter-provincial interconnection line and the like under the command of a provincial regulation and control department, so the absorption capacity is a concept of a provincial region or a larger region, and specific measurement and calculation are difficult to develop in the county region and even the urban region; on the other hand, the conditions of development of electric power systems and natural resource endowments in various regions in provinces are different, and it is obviously not suitable to simply distribute the development scale of the whole province evenly or decompose the development scale of the whole province to lower administrative regions according to a certain simple index.

In the published literature, no county-area development scale decomposition method based on the wind power photovoltaic development target of the whole province exists.

Disclosure of Invention

The invention provides a method and a system for distributing new energy power generation targets, which are used for solving the problem that reasonable distribution of new energy development targets is lacked in county areas at present.

In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:

the invention provides a method for distributing new energy power generation targets in a first aspect, which comprises the following steps:

determining a plurality of measurement and calculation dimensions based on the influence factors of new energy power generation;

calculating the quantized value of each measurement and calculation dimension under the partition;

and carrying out weighted calculation on the quantitative value of the measurement and calculation dimensionality to obtain a partition score, and decomposing the new energy development target according to the partition score.

Furthermore, the measurement and calculation dimensions comprise the current installation situation, natural resource endowments, developable projects, network supply load, load fluctuation and power grid asset scale.

Further, the partition A is used for dividing the quantized value M of the current installation situation_AComprises the following steps:

n represents the total number of partitions.

Further, the quantized value R of natural resource endowment of the partition A_ASaid R is_AThe method comprises the steps of partitioning the exploitable wind resource scale and the product of the exploitable photovoltaic power generation area and the illumination intensity.

Further, the quantized value of the developable item of partition A includes the developable item size P_AAnd land area S for developing new energy projects_A。

Further, partition A is the quantized value L of the network load_AThe predicted annual network is provided with a load maximum.

Further, the partition A is a quantized value W of the load fluctuation_ASatisfies the following conditions:

wherein W_i(i 1,2,3 … … 8760) to supply load to the network at a certain time in the total area,and providing load for the annual average network of the general district.

Further, the quantized value of the power grid asset scale of the partition A comprises the transformation capacity N_1AAnd line length N_2A。

Further, the partition score is calculated as:

in the formula, F_L、F_M、F_P、F_R、F_NAnd F_WAnd respectively representing the weights of the network supply load, the installed current situation, the developable project, the natural resource endowment, the power grid asset scale and the load fluctuation dimension.

The invention provides a distribution system of new energy power generation targets in a second aspect, which comprises

The influence factor analysis unit determines a plurality of measurement and calculation dimensions based on the influence factors of the new energy power generation;

the information processing unit is used for calculating the quantized value of each measurement and calculation dimension under the partition;

and the target decomposition unit is used for carrying out weighted calculation on the quantitative values of the measurement and calculation dimensions to obtain partition scores, and decomposing the new energy development target according to the partition scores.

The system for distributing a new energy generation target according to the second aspect of the present invention can achieve the methods according to the first aspect and the respective implementation manners of the first aspect, and achieve the same effects.

The effect provided in the summary of the invention is only the effect of the embodiment, not all the effects of the invention, and one of the above technical solutions has the following advantages or beneficial effects:

the method comprehensively considers factors influencing the development of new energy, determines measurement and calculation dimensions based on the differentiation of the natural resources of the partitions, the strength of the power system and the like, quantifies the measurement and calculation dimensions, obtains partition scores based on weighted calculation, and defines development targets for all the partitions based on the partition scores. And the wind power and photovoltaic planning scale of the whole province is decomposed, and a reference is provided for scientifically formulating the wind power and photovoltaic development plan in the basic administrative region.

Drawings

In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments or technical solutions in the prior art of the present invention, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art that other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative efforts.

FIG. 1 is a schematic flow diagram of the process of the present invention;

fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of the system of the present invention.

Detailed Description

In order to clearly explain the technical features of the present invention, the following detailed description of the present invention is provided with reference to the accompanying drawings. The following disclosure provides many different embodiments, or examples, for implementing different features of the invention. To simplify the disclosure of the present invention, the components and arrangements of specific examples are described below. Furthermore, the present invention may repeat reference numerals and/or letters in the various examples. This repetition is for the purpose of simplicity and clarity and does not in itself dictate a relationship between the various embodiments and/or configurations discussed. It should be noted that the components illustrated in the figures are not necessarily drawn to scale. Descriptions of well-known components and processing techniques and procedures are omitted so as to not unnecessarily limit the invention.

As shown in fig. 1, the present invention provides a method for allocating a new energy generation target, the method comprising the steps of:

s1, determining a plurality of measurement and calculation dimensions based on the influence factors of the new energy power generation;

s2, calculating the quantized value of each measurement and calculation dimension under the partition;

and S3, carrying out weighted calculation on the quantitative values of the measurement and calculation dimensions to obtain partition scores, and decomposing the new energy development target according to the partition scores.

In the following description of the embodiments, the subareas are illustrated as county areas, and the general areas are illustrated as cities.

In step S1, the measurement and calculation dimensions include installed status, natural resource endowments, exploitable projects, grid supply load, load fluctuation, and grid asset size.

Dimension one: the current installation state recommends a weight of 15%. The dimension defines that the future new potential of the area with larger installed scale is relatively small.

Dimension two: natural resources are assigned, and the weight is recommended to be 10%. The newly added potential of areas with better intrinsic resources (good wind power resources, good illumination resources, large utilization area for wind power photovoltaic development and the like) defined by the dimension is relatively large in the future.

Dimension three: items may be developed with a recommended weight of 35%. The dimension defines that the future newly adding capability of areas with larger project size can be relatively larger.

Dimension four: the net load is recommended to be 10%. The dimension defines that areas with larger load sizes have relatively larger future new potential.

Dimension five: load volatility, weight 10% is recommended. The dimension defines that areas with larger fluctuation degree have relatively smaller future new potential.

Dimension six: and (4) the power grid asset scale recommends a weight of 20%. The dimension defines that the future new potential of the area with larger power grid scale is relatively larger.

In step S2, n is defined as the total number of provinces and counties (districts), and F represents a weighting factor. Take A county (district) as an example.

Dimension one: the current situation of installation. And (4) counting the scale of the new energy project in the stages of grid connection, construction, approval or wholesale and the like in each county and area.

With M representing the dimension of the existing installation scale, F_MFor the dimension weight value, M_AFor the score value corresponding to the existing wind power (photovoltaic) installed capacity of A county (district), the calculation method comprises the following steps:

dimension two: natural resources are endowed with natural resources. Researching natural resource conditions of each county and district, including altitude, wind speed, illumination intensity, developable land area and the like, measuring and calculating the scale of the developable wind power and photovoltaic installed machine corresponding to the natural conditions of the county and district, namely quantifying the natural resource endowment conditions. R represents natural resource intrinsic dimension, F_RFor the dimension weight value, R_AThe method is the total development potential of wind power (photovoltaic) in A county (district). Wind power is measured by taking the scale of wind resources which can be developed by the theory of each county and district as a measurement condition, and the unit is ten thousand kilowatts; the photovoltaic is measured by taking the product (in MJ) of the photovoltaic power generation area (in square meters) and the illumination intensity (in MJ/square meter) of each county and region as a measurement condition.

Dimension three: an item may be developed. And (4) calculating the scale of the exploitable projects of each region by combining the investment intention of the new energy owner mastered by the energy competent departments of each region and the preliminary result of communication with related units such as the power company.

P represents the dimension of the exploitable project (the owner has communicated with the local electric power company and the energy management department in advance or has the development intention), F_PFor the dimension weight value, P_AProject scale (unit is ten thousand kilowatts) can be developed for A county (district), S_AThe area of land (in square meters) available for developing new energy projects for prefecture a (district).

Dimension four: the network supplies the load. And (5) counting the maximum value of the annual network supply load of each county and district.

With L representing the net load dimension, F_LIs the weight value of the dimension, L_APredicting the maximum value of the annual network supply load for A county (district);

dimension five: load fluctuation. And (3) calculating the fluctuation degree of each curve according to the load characteristic curve of each city within 8760 hours, and if the fluctuation degree is large, determining that the peak shaving capacity of the power grid in the region is weak.

With W representing the load fluctuation dimension, F_WFor the dimension weight value, W_AThe load fluctuation index of the local city in A county (district) is calculated byWherein W_i(i is 1,2,3 … … 8760) supplies load to the time network in the city,and providing load for the annual average network in the city.

Dimension six: and (5) power grid asset scale. And (4) counting the power grid scales such as the capacity of each regional transformer substation, the length of a power distribution network and a main grid frame line, and the scale of the power transmission and transformation project and the line project serving the new energy, and taking the power transmission and transformation project and the line project scale as one of reference indexes of the new energy access capacity.

Representing the dimension of the power grid asset scale by N, and dividing the power transformation capacity N₁And line length N₂Two classes, F_NFor the dimension weight value, N_1AThe method for calculating the transformation capacity (including 10 kV, 35 kV, 110 kV, 220 kV, 500 kV, and 1000 kV) of A county (region) is to calculate the value of each voltage class (such as 10 kV voltage)The level is 10) multiplied by the sum of the voltage level transformation capacities; n is a radical of_2AFor line length (voltage grade classification) of A county (district) as same as N_1A) The calculation method is that the numerical value of each voltage grade is multiplied by the sum of the line lengths of the voltage grades.

In step S3, a weighted score is calculated for each county and district, and the development scale of the whole province is decomposed into the county and district according to the weighted score.

If the whole province has n counties (districts), taking A county (district) as an example, defining the suitability SCORE of the newly added development scale of the county (district) as SCORE_A(wind power and photovoltaic need to be calculated independently), the calculation formula is as follows:

this is the suitability score of the newly added development scale in prefecture a (district) after considering 6 dimensions. In the above formula, the first network load supply dimension (L represents this dimension) is taken as an example, and the maximum value of the network load supply of county (district) in a is divided by the sum of the maximum values of the network load supply of counties (districts) in the whole province, and then multiplied by the weight (for example, 10% of the recommended weight) given to the network load supply dimension is the suitability score of the newly added development scale obtainable in the dimension in county (district).

Accordingly, if the whole province has the newly increased wind power (photovoltaic) scale E within a certain period_AllThen, the wind power (photovoltaic) development scale of county a (district) in the time interval is suggested as: e_A＝E_All*SCORE_A

The second aspect of the present invention provides a distribution system of new energy power generation targets, which includes an influence factor analysis unit 1, an information processing unit 2, and a target decomposition unit 3.

The influence factor analysis unit 1 determines a plurality of measurement and calculation dimensions based on the influence factors of the new energy power generation; the information processing unit 2 is used for calculating the quantized value of each measurement and calculation dimension under the partition; the target decomposition unit 3 is used for performing weighted calculation on the quantitative values of the measurement and calculation dimensions to obtain partition scores, and decomposing the new energy development targets according to the partition scores.

The embodiment is provided for solving the problem that the decomposition of the development scale of wind power and photovoltaic of the whole province to the basic administrative region lacks theoretical basis. The wind power and photovoltaic planning scales of the whole province can be decomposed based on the difference of natural resources of the county and the county, the power system strength and the like, and a reference is provided for scientific formulation of wind power and photovoltaic development plans of the administrative regions of the base level.

Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described with reference to the accompanying drawings, it is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and it should be understood by those skilled in the art that various modifications and variations can be made without inventive efforts by those skilled in the art based on the technical solution of the present invention.