阅读说明：本技术 一种高温灾害评估预测方法 (High-temperature disaster assessment and prediction method ) 是由 林忠 凌超 钱胜利 邱珩 于 2020-12-28 设计创作，主要内容包括：本发明属于气象灾害评估技术领域,具体的说是一种高温灾害评估预测方法,温度测定装置包括百叶箱,所述百叶箱包括箱体、箱盖、箱门、固定支架、通风叶片和气象仪器,所述箱盖安装在所述箱体顶部,且所述箱盖为向下弯曲的弧形；本发明通过在百叶箱的箱盖上方设置一号罐,通过下雨时一号罐内部积累大量雨水,使得一号罐压动一号杆并作用于通风叶片,使得通风叶片转动,并使得通风叶片之间的间隙减少,因此外界的雨水和灰尘难以通过通风叶片的缝隙进入箱体内部,从而保证了箱体内部的温度测定装置得出的结果的准确性。(The invention belongs to the technical field of meteorological disaster assessment, and particularly relates to a high-temperature disaster assessment and prediction method.A temperature measuring device comprises a louver box, wherein the louver box comprises a box body, a box cover, a box door, a fixed bracket, a ventilation blade and a meteorological instrument, the box cover is arranged at the top of the box body, and the box cover is in an arc shape which is bent downwards; according to the invention, the first tank is arranged above the box cover of the louver box, and a large amount of rainwater is accumulated in the first tank during raining, so that the first tank presses the first rod and acts on the ventilation blades, the ventilation blades rotate, and gaps among the ventilation blades are reduced, therefore, external rainwater and dust are difficult to enter the box body through the gaps of the ventilation blades, and the accuracy of a result obtained by a temperature measuring device in the box body is ensured.)

1. A high-temperature disaster assessment and prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps: the prediction method comprises the following steps:

s1, firstly, looking up meteorological data in historical data to establish a historical high-temperature risk assessment model, and carrying out high-temperature risk assessment on the area to be assessed by using the historical high-temperature risk assessment model so as to obtain a historical high-temperature risk index of the area to be assessed in high-temperature weather;

s2: recording real-time meteorological data of the area to be evaluated through temperature measuring devices in meteorological stations widely distributed on the area to be evaluated, establishing a real-time high-temperature risk evaluation model, and performing high-temperature risk evaluation on the area to be evaluated by using the real-time high-temperature risk evaluation model so as to obtain a real-time high-temperature risk index of the area to be evaluated in high-temperature weather;

s3: establishing a high-temperature risk prediction model by using weather prediction data of a weather satellite, performing high-temperature risk assessment on the area to be assessed by using the high-temperature risk prediction model, and obtaining a predicted high-temperature risk index of the area to be assessed in high-temperature weather;

s4: comprehensively considering the historical high-temperature risk index, the real-time high-temperature risk index and the forecast high-temperature risk index to judge the probability of drought disasters in the area to be evaluated; then, evaluating the yield reduction rate of the area to be evaluated when drought occurs in high-temperature weather by using the drought index and the occurrence probability of local crops in each development stage of the area to be evaluated under the limited irrigation condition, so as to carry out graded quantitative evaluation on the drought risk and the agricultural property loss caused by the high-temperature weather disaster in the area to be evaluated;

the temperature measuring device adopted in the S2 comprises a louver box, wherein the louver box comprises a box body (1), a box cover (2), a box door (3), a fixing support (4), a ventilating vane (5) and a meteorological instrument, the box cover (2) is installed at the top of the box body (1), and the box cover (2) is in an arc shape which is bent downwards; the fixed support (4) is installed at the bottom of the box body (1), the box door (3) is installed on the side wall of the box body (1), ventilation grooves (11) are formed in the side wall of the box body (1) and the box door (3), fixing rods (111) are uniformly arranged on the ventilation grooves (11), the ventilation blades (5) are installed on the fixing rods (111), the ventilation blades (5) comprise a first blade (51) and a second blade (52), the first blade (51) and the second blade (52) are completely identical, the first blade (51) and the second blade (52) are inclined to the horizontal plane, and the first blade (51) and the second blade (52) are inclined to the horizontal plane at an included angle of 40-45 degrees; the fixing rod (111) penetrates through the joint of the first blade (51) and the second blade (52) and is rotatably connected with the first blade (51) and the second blade (52), the first blade (51) is close to the outer side of the box body (1), and the first blade (51) is close to the inner side of the box body (1); a first rod (12) is uniformly arranged at a position, close to the first blade (51), in the box body (1), a pressure lever (121) is uniformly arranged at a position, corresponding to the first blade (51), on the outer surface of the first rod (12), and the end part of the pressure lever (121) is contacted with the upper surface of the close first blade (51); the first rod (12) penetrates through a fixing ring (122) arranged at a position, close to the top, of the side wall of the box body (1), the upper surface of the fixing ring (122) is connected with a fixing block (123) arranged on the outer surface of the first rod (12) through a spring, and the first rod (12) is connected with the fixing ring (122) in a sliding mode; the top of the first rod (12) penetrates through the box cover (2), a first tank (124) is arranged at the top of the first rod (12), a liquid discharge pipe (125) is arranged on the side wall of the first tank (124), the end part of the liquid discharge pipe (125) points to the direction far away from the box cover (2), and the first rod (12) is connected with the box cover (2) in a sliding mode; the meteorological instrument comprises a thermometer and a hygrometer, and the thermometer and the hygrometer are both installed in the middle of the interior of the box body (1).

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises: the outer surface of the side wall of the first tank (124) is uniformly provided with arc-shaped plates (126) around the central part of the first tank (124), and the end parts of the arc-shaped plates (126) are connected with the upper surface of the box cover (2) through elastic ropes (127); the arc-shaped plate (126) swings under the action of wind blowing, so that the arc-shaped plate (126) drives the first rod (12) to act on the ventilating vane (5) and swing the ventilating vane (5), and rain drops attached to the ventilating vane (5) are shaken off.

3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the method comprises: a limiting block (511) is arranged on the side face, close to the edge, of the first blade (51), a limiting rod (512) is arranged in the ventilating groove (11), the top and the bottom of the limiting rod (512) are respectively connected with the upper bottom face and the lower bottom face of the ventilating groove (11), the side face of the limiting rod (512) is in contact with the part, close to the limiting block (511), of the side face of the first blade (51), and the side face, close to the limiting block (511), of the limiting rod (512) is subjected to sanding treatment; through the action of the limiting rod (512) and the limiting block (511), the situation that the swinging ventilating vanes (5) enter raindrops and shake down into the box body (1) is avoided.

4. The method according to claim 3, wherein the method comprises: the width of a blade (51) is greater than adjacent interval between the dead lever (111), through the restriction to the width of a blade (51), avoids the clearance between an adjacent blade (51) too big for outside rainwater or dust invade box (1) inside in a large number, thereby has influenced the normal work of box (1) inside meteorological instrument.

5. The method according to claim 4, wherein the method comprises: the upper surface of the second vane (52) is uniformly provided with a first groove (521), and the outlet end part of the first groove (521) is obliquely directed downwards; through the action of the first groove (521), external dust and foreign matters are blocked by the first groove (521) through the second blade (52) and are collected in the first groove (521), and the external dust and foreign matters are prevented from invading into the box body (1).

6. The method according to claim 5, wherein the method comprises: a first channel (128) is arranged inside each first rod (12), the top of each first channel (128) is communicated with the inside of the first tank (124), and a filter screen (129) is arranged at the position, close to the first channel (128), inside the first tank (124); a first elastic tube (522) is arranged on the outer surface of the first rod (12) corresponding to the second blade (52), one end of the first elastic tube (522) is communicated with the interior of the first channel (128), the other end of the first elastic tube passes through the joint of the first blade (51) and the second blade (52) to be communicated with a second groove (523) arranged in the second blade (52), and the second groove (523) is communicated with the bottom of the first groove (521) respectively; a first channel (128) and a first elastic tube (522) are not arranged inside a first rod (12) close to the box door (3); filtered rainwater is injected into the second groove (523) through the first elastic pipe (522) by the action of the first channel (128), so that dust and impurities in the first groove (521) are removed.

Technical Field

The invention belongs to the technical field of meteorological disaster assessment, and particularly relates to a high-temperature disaster assessment and prediction method.

Background

High-temperature disastrous weather is one of causes of secondary meteorological disasters such as drought and fire. The low latitude in Guangxi places, and the high-temperature weather process with large range, continuity and daily maximum temperature of more than or equal to 35 ℃ can occur in 5-9 months every year. With the increase of the total social and economic quantity, the continuous, large-range and high-strength high-temperature weather process has great influence on various industries and household life, and particularly has great harm to departments such as electric power, fire fighting, transportation and the like and field operation industries, and the economic loss is increased day by day. Therefore, high-temperature disaster assessment becomes an important content for deciding weather service, and particularly, a 5-50 a major disastrous high-temperature weather event can cause certain harm to social stability, so that governments and related departments pay great attention to emergency decision, and every time when the disastrous high-temperature weather occurs, all levels of governments hope that the weather departments can assess disasters caused by the high-temperature weather in service materials.

However, in the present stage, the high temperature risk assessment still needs to measure the real-time meteorological data, and the measurement of the meteorological data needs to be distributed in the real-time data of a large number of meteorological stations of the area to be assessed, the temperature measuring device which is common in the meteorological stations during the temperature of the louver box, and when the existing louver box meets wind and rain, external rain, dust and other sundries easily enter the louver box through the blade gap of the louver box, the measurement result of the temperature measuring device in the louver box to the external environment temperature is influenced, so that the final collected meteorological data is not accurate enough, and the error of the final obtained high temperature disaster assessment result is increased.

In view of the above, the first tank is arranged above the box cover of the louver box, and a large amount of rainwater is accumulated in the first tank during raining, so that the first tank presses the first rod and acts on the ventilation blades, the ventilation blades rotate, and gaps among the ventilation blades are reduced, so that external rainwater and dust are difficult to enter the box body through gaps of the ventilation blades, and the accuracy of a result obtained by a temperature measuring device in the box body is ensured.

Disclosure of Invention

In order to make up for the defects of the prior art and solve the problem of the existing high-temperature disaster assessment and prediction method, when the applied louver box is subjected to heavy wind and rain, external rain, dust and other sundries easily enter the inside of the louver box through the blade gap of the louver box, and the measurement result of the temperature measurement device in the louver box on the external environment temperature is influenced; the invention provides a high-temperature disaster assessment and prediction method.

The technical scheme adopted by the invention for solving the technical problems is as follows: the invention discloses a high-temperature disaster assessment and prediction method, which comprises the following steps:

s1, firstly, looking up meteorological data in historical data to establish a historical high-temperature risk assessment model, and carrying out high-temperature risk assessment on the area to be assessed by using the historical high-temperature risk assessment model so as to obtain a historical high-temperature risk index of the area to be assessed in high-temperature weather;

s2: recording real-time meteorological data of the area to be evaluated through temperature measuring devices in meteorological stations widely distributed on the area to be evaluated, establishing a real-time high-temperature risk evaluation model, and performing high-temperature risk evaluation on the area to be evaluated by using the real-time high-temperature risk evaluation model so as to obtain a real-time high-temperature risk index of the area to be evaluated in high-temperature weather;

s3: establishing a high-temperature risk prediction model by using weather prediction data of a weather satellite, performing high-temperature risk assessment on the area to be assessed by using the high-temperature risk prediction model, and obtaining a predicted high-temperature risk index of the area to be assessed in high-temperature weather;

s4: comprehensively considering the historical high-temperature risk index, the real-time high-temperature risk index and the forecast high-temperature risk index to judge the probability of drought disasters in the area to be evaluated; then, evaluating the yield reduction rate of the area to be evaluated when drought occurs in high-temperature weather by using the drought index and the occurrence probability of local crops in each development stage of the area to be evaluated under the limited irrigation condition, so as to carry out graded quantitative evaluation on the drought risk and the agricultural property loss caused by the high-temperature weather disaster in the area to be evaluated;

the temperature measuring device adopted in the S2 comprises a louver box, wherein the louver box comprises a box body, a box cover, a box door, a fixing support, a ventilating vane and a meteorological instrument, the box cover is arranged at the top of the box body, and the box cover is in an arc shape which is bent downwards; the fixed support is installed at the bottom of the box body, the box door is installed on the side wall of the box body, ventilation grooves are formed in the side wall of the box body and the box door, fixing rods are uniformly arranged on the ventilation grooves, the ventilation blades are installed on the fixing rods and comprise a first blade and a second blade, the first blade and the second blade are identical, the first blade and the second blade are inclined to the horizontal plane, and the first blade and the second blade are inclined to the horizontal plane at an included angle of 40-45 degrees; the fixing rod penetrates through the joint part of the first blade and the second blade and is rotatably connected with the first blade and the second blade, the first blade is close to the outer side of the box body, and the first blade is close to the inner side of the box body; a first rod is uniformly arranged at a position, close to the first blade, in the box body, a pressure rod is uniformly arranged at a position, corresponding to the first blade, of the outer surface of the first rod, and the end part of the pressure rod is contacted with the upper surface of the first blade close to the end part of the pressure rod; the first rod penetrates through a fixing ring arranged at the position, close to the top, of the side wall of the box body, the upper surface of the fixing ring is connected with a fixing block arranged on the outer surface of the first rod through a spring, and the first rod is connected with the fixing ring in a sliding mode; the top of the first rod penetrates through the box cover, a first tank is arranged at the top of the first rod, a liquid discharge pipe is arranged on the side wall of the first tank, the end part of the liquid discharge pipe points to the direction far away from the box cover, and the first rod is connected with the box cover in a sliding mode; the meteorological instrument includes thermometer and hygrometer, thermometer and hygrometer all install the inside middle part of box.

When the louver box works, the louver box is usually installed in an open area and no obstacles are arranged around the louver box, so when wind and rain appear outside, dust sundries blown by wind cannot be blocked by the obstacles and directly contact with the louver box in the floating process, and the external dust sundries can influence the normal work of meteorological instruments inside the louver box after entering the louver box; the ventilation blades uniformly arranged on the ventilation grooves of the louver box are inclined to the horizontal plane, so that external dust and sundries are blocked by the ventilation blades and are difficult to enter the box body; when the ventilating vane is blown by wind, the first vane of the ventilating vane is contacted with the pressure rod and is limited by the pressure rod, so that the ventilating vane can only rotate towards the direction close to the outside when being blown by the wind, thereby preventing dust impurities attached to the ventilating vane from being brought into the box body when the ventilating vane rotates towards the inside of the box body, and further preventing the dust in the box body from increasing and influencing the normal work of a meteorological instrument; external rainwater is rapidly accumulated in the first tank at the top of the first rod, more rainwater enters the first tank, and a drainage pipe of the first tank is difficult to timely drain the rainwater accumulated in the first tank, so that the water level in the first tank rises, and the pressure of the first tank on the rainwater accumulated in the first tank is increased; the first rod below the first tank is connected with the tank cover in a sliding mode, so that when the first tank is pressed, the first rod is pressed and slides downwards along the inner surface of the fixing ring, the first rod on the outer surface of the first rod extrudes the first blade, the first blade drives the second blade to rotate downwards, and the first blade and the second blade are inclined to the horizontal plane, so that when the first blade rotates downwards, the distance between the adjacent first blades is reduced, raindrops drifting towards the inside of the louver box are hindered by the first blade, rainwater invading into the box body from the ventilation groove is reduced, the rainwater invading into the box body is prevented from increasing the humidity in the box body, and the accuracy of a meteorological instrument on an external environment detection result is influenced; when the first blade rotates, the end part of the second blade is driven to rotate, so that the end part of the second blade rotates towards the direction far away from the interior of the box body, raindrops blown by wind slide along the surface of the second blade towards the direction far away from the interior of the box body after being hindered by the second blade, rainwater is further prevented from invading the interior of the box body, and normal work of a meteorological instrument is guaranteed; after the rainwater stopped, the rainwater that accumulates in a jar flowed out from the fluid-discharge tube, and a jar no longer pressurized and reset to make a pole reset, and make ventilation blade no longer pressurized and reset, make the inside temperature measurement device of box can normally play a role.

Preferably, the outer surface of the side wall of the first tank is uniformly provided with arc-shaped plates around the central part of the first tank, and the end parts of the arc-shaped plates are connected with the upper surface of the tank cover through elastic ropes; the arc plate swings under the action of wind blowing, so that the arc plate drives the first rod to act on the ventilating vanes and swing the ventilating vanes, and rain drops attached to the ventilating vanes are shaken off; when the tank cover is in operation, gust wind occurs outside, and gust wind power is increased to blow the arc plate on the first tank to rotate, the arc plate is pressed and drives the first tank to rotate, and the elastic rope arranged at the end part of the arc plate enables the rotating arc plate to be limited, so that the elastic rope drives the first tank to rotate and restore the original position when the gust wind power is reduced, and the first tank swings above the tank cover in a reciprocating manner; drive a pole pendulum when jar wobbling, make the depression bar that a pole evenly set up rotate and act on a blade along with a pole, make a blade receive the striking effect of depression bar in succession, thereby make a blade drive No. two blade vibrations acutely, make the rainwater that No. two blade surfaces dripped when No. two blade vibrations acutely shaken off under the vibration, thereby it falls into inside the box to avoid on No. two blades adnexed rainwater too much to lead to on No. two blades adnexed rainwater to blow the effect of wind, thereby influence the normal work of the inside meteorological instrument of box.

Preferably, a limiting block is arranged on the side surface of the first blade close to the edge, a limiting rod is arranged in the ventilation groove, the top and the bottom of the limiting rod are respectively connected with the upper bottom surface and the lower bottom surface of the ventilation groove, the side surface of the limiting rod is contacted with the part, close to the limiting block, of the side surface of the first blade, and the side surface, close to the limiting block, of the limiting rod is subjected to grinding treatment; the rain drops entering the swinging ventilating vanes are prevented from shaking off the inside of the box body under the action of the limiting rods and the limiting blocks; when the rain-proof ventilating vane works, the ventilating vane is separated from the limiting rod under the action of the pressure rod and rotates towards the direction close to the outside, so that raindrops attached to the ventilating vane are shaken off to the outside along with the rotating ventilating vane; when the ventilating blade is reset, the side surface of the ventilating blade, which is close to the limiting rod, is in contact with the limiting rod, and the surface of the ventilating blade, which is in contact with the ventilating blade, is subjected to sanding treatment, so that the ventilating blade is subjected to larger friction force after being in contact with the limiting rod, the rotating speed of the ventilating blade is gradually reduced until the limiting rod on the ventilating blade is in contact with the limiting rod, and the ventilating blade stops rotating; in the process, the ventilation blades are gradually decelerated to stop, so that the ventilation blades are prevented from directly colliding with the limiting rods and stopping to enable raindrops attached to the ventilation blades to fall into the box body under the inertia effect; and, through the limiting action of gag lever post, avoid the ventilation vane to rotate and spill into the box with self adnexed raindrop to the direction that is close to the box inboard inside, guaranteed the normal work of the meteorological instrument of box inside.

Preferably, the width of the first blade is larger than the distance between the adjacent fixing rods, and the limitation on the width of the first blade prevents the overlarge gap between the adjacent first blades, so that external rainwater or dust can intrude into the box body in a large amount, and the normal work of a meteorological instrument in the box body is influenced; the during operation, because the width of a blade is greater than the interval between the adjacent dead lever, consequently when a blade pressurized and pivoted range is great, the contact each other between the adjacent blade for ventilation blade on the shutter box is in the closed condition, has further avoided outside rainwater to get into inside the box, has guaranteed that the meteorological instrument of box inside obtains guard action effectively in heavy rain weather.

Preferably, the upper surface of the second blade is uniformly provided with a first groove, and the outlet end part of the first groove is obliquely directed downwards; through the action of the first groove, external dust and sundries are blocked by the first groove through the second blade and are concentrated into the first groove, so that the external dust and sundries are prevented from invading into the box body; when the wind-rain-proof box body works, when wind and rain appear outside the box body, dust and sundries blown by wind move towards the direction close to the interior of the box body and are firstly contacted with the upper surfaces of the second blades; the dust impurities are under the action of wind and are blocked by the first grooves uniformly arranged on the second blades when the upper surfaces of the second blades slide, so that the dust impurities fall into the first grooves, the dust impurities entering the box are reduced, and the normal work of a meteorological instrument in the box is further ensured; moreover, because the outlet end of the first groove is obliquely directed downwards, when the wind direction changes to make the second blade swing towards the outside, the dust in the first groove is separated from the second blade under the vibration action of the second blade and is shaken off to the outside environment.

Preferably, a first channel is arranged inside each first rod, the top of each first channel is communicated with the inside of the first tank, and a filter screen is arranged at a position, close to the first channel, inside the first tank; a first elastic pipe is arranged on the outer surface of the first rod corresponding to the second blade, one end of the first elastic pipe is communicated with the interior of the first channel, the other end of the first elastic pipe penetrates through the combination part of the first blade and the second blade to be communicated with a second groove arranged in the second blade, and the second groove is communicated with the bottom of the first groove respectively; a first channel and a first elastic tube are not arranged in the first rod close to the box door; the filtered rainwater is injected into the second groove through the first elastic pipe under the action of the first channel, so that dust and impurities in the first groove are removed; when the rainwater collecting tank works, a part of rainwater in the first tank flows downwards along the first channel in the first rod, and the rainwater flowing along the first channel flows out of the first elastic pipe and flows into the second groove along the first elastic pipe; the second groove is communicated with the bottom of each first groove, so that rainwater flowing into the second groove from the first elastic pipe flows to the outside through the first groove, and dust and impurities accumulated in the first groove are impacted and removed in the process of flowing along the first groove, so that the first groove on the second blade can normally play a role; the filtering net is arranged at the position, close to the first channel, in the first tank, so that rainwater flowing into the first channel is filtered by the filtering net, and the blockage of impurities mixed in the rainwater on the first elastic pipe is effectively avoided; in addition, because the chamber door need be opened, consequently a pole that is close to ventilation blade on the chamber door does not set up a passageway and an elastic tube, avoids opening of chamber door to cause the hindrance No. one elastic tube on the passageway No. one to guaranteed that the observer can open the chamber door smoothly and take notes the data in the inside meteorological instrument.

The invention has the following beneficial effects:

1. according to the high-temperature disaster assessment and prediction method, the first tank is arranged above the box cover of the louver box, and a large amount of rainwater is accumulated in the first tank during raining, so that the first tank presses the first rod and acts on the ventilation blades, the ventilation blades rotate, gaps among the ventilation blades are reduced, external rainwater and dust are difficult to enter the box body through the gaps of the ventilation blades, and the accuracy of a result obtained by a temperature measuring device in the box body is guaranteed.

2. According to the high-temperature disaster assessment and prediction method, the arc-shaped plates are uniformly arranged on the outer surface of the side wall of the first tank around the center of the first tank, when wind blows the arc-shaped plates on the first tank, the arc-shaped plates are pressed and drive the first tank to rotate, the first tank swings and simultaneously drives the first rod to swing, so that the first blade drives the second blade to vibrate violently, rainwater dripped on the surface of the second blade is shaken off under the vibration effect while the second blade vibrates violently, and rainwater attached to the second blade is prevented from falling into the box under the blowing effect of the wind and further affecting the normal work of a meteorological instrument in the box.

Drawings

The invention will be further explained with reference to the drawings.

FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method of the present invention;

FIG. 2 is a perspective view of a temperature measuring device used in the present invention;

FIG. 3 is an enlarged view of a portion of FIG. 2 at A;

FIG. 4 is an enlarged view of a portion of FIG. 2 at B;

FIG. 5 is an enlarged view of a portion of FIG. 2 at C;

FIG. 6 is a side view of a temperature measurement device used in the present invention;

FIG. 7 is an enlarged view of a portion of FIG. 6 at D;

in the figure: the box body 1, the ventilation groove 11, the fixing rod 111, the first rod 12, the pressure lever 121, the fixing ring 122, the fixing block 123, the first tank 124, the liquid discharge pipe 125, the arc-shaped plate 126, the elastic rope 127, the first channel 128, the filter screen 129, the box cover 2, the box door 3, the fixing support 4, the ventilation blade 5, the first blade 51, the limiting block 511, the limiting rod 512, the second blade 52, the first elastic pipe 522, the first groove 521 and the second groove 523.

Detailed Description

In order to make the technical means, the creation characteristics, the achievement purposes and the effects of the invention easy to understand, the invention is further described with the specific embodiments.

As shown in fig. 1 to 7, the method for evaluating and predicting a high-temperature disaster according to the present invention includes the following steps:

s1, firstly, looking up meteorological data in historical data to establish a historical high-temperature risk assessment model, and carrying out high-temperature risk assessment on the area to be assessed by using the historical high-temperature risk assessment model so as to obtain a historical high-temperature risk index of the area to be assessed in high-temperature weather;

s2: recording real-time meteorological data of the area to be evaluated through temperature measuring devices in meteorological stations widely distributed on the area to be evaluated, establishing a real-time high-temperature risk evaluation model, and performing high-temperature risk evaluation on the area to be evaluated by using the real-time high-temperature risk evaluation model so as to obtain a real-time high-temperature risk index of the area to be evaluated in high-temperature weather;

s3: establishing a high-temperature risk prediction model by using weather prediction data of a weather satellite, performing high-temperature risk assessment on the area to be assessed by using the high-temperature risk prediction model, and obtaining a predicted high-temperature risk index of the area to be assessed in high-temperature weather;

s4: comprehensively considering the historical high-temperature risk index, the real-time high-temperature risk index and the forecast high-temperature risk index to judge the probability of drought disasters in the area to be evaluated; then, evaluating the yield reduction rate of the area to be evaluated when drought occurs in high-temperature weather by using the drought index and the occurrence probability of local crops in each development stage of the area to be evaluated under the limited irrigation condition, so as to carry out graded quantitative evaluation on the drought risk and the agricultural property loss caused by the high-temperature weather disaster in the area to be evaluated;

the temperature measuring device adopted in the S2 comprises a louver box, wherein the louver box comprises a box body 1, a box cover 2, a box door 3, a fixing support 4, a ventilating vane 5 and a weather instrument, the box cover 2 is installed at the top of the box body 1, and the box cover 2 is in an arc shape which is bent downwards; the fixed support 4 is installed at the bottom of the box body 1, the box door 3 is installed on the side wall of the box body 1, the side wall of the box body 1 and the box door 3 are respectively provided with a ventilation groove 11, fixing rods 111 are uniformly arranged on the ventilation grooves 11, the ventilation blades 5 are installed on the fixing rods 111, the ventilation blades 5 comprise a first blade 51 and a second blade 52, the first blade 51 and the second blade 52 are completely identical, the first blade 51 and the second blade 52 are both inclined to the horizontal plane, and the first blade 51 and the second blade 52 are both inclined to the horizontal plane at an included angle of 40-45 degrees; the fixing rod 111 penetrates through the joint of the first blade 51 and the second blade 52 and is rotatably connected with the first blade 51 and the second blade 52, the first blade 51 is close to the outer side of the box body 1, and the first blade 51 is close to the inner side of the box body 1; a first rod 12 is uniformly arranged at a position, close to the first blade 51, in the box body 1, a pressure lever 121 is uniformly arranged at a position, corresponding to the first blade 51, on the outer surface of the first rod 12, and the end part of the pressure lever 121 is contacted with the upper surface of the first blade 51 which is close to the pressure lever 121; the first rod 12 penetrates through a fixing ring 122 arranged at a position, close to the top, of the side wall of the box body 1, the upper surface of the fixing ring 122 is connected with a fixing block 123 arranged on the outer surface of the first rod 12 through a spring, and the first rod 12 is connected with the fixing ring 122 in a sliding mode; the top of the first rod 12 penetrates through the box cover 2, a first tank 124 is arranged at the top of the first rod 12, a liquid discharge pipe 125 is arranged on the side wall of the first tank 124, the end part of the liquid discharge pipe 125 points to the direction far away from the box cover 2, and the first rod 12 is connected with the box cover 2 in a sliding mode; the meteorological instrument includes thermometer and hygrometer, thermometer and hygrometer all install the inside middle part of box 1.

When the louver box works, the louver box is usually installed in an open area and no obstacles are arranged around the louver box, so when wind and rain appear outside, dust sundries blown by wind cannot be blocked by the obstacles and directly contact with the louver box in the floating process, and the external dust sundries can influence the normal work of meteorological instruments inside the louver box after entering the louver box; the ventilation blades 5 uniformly arranged on the ventilation grooves 11 of the louver box are inclined to the horizontal plane, so that external dust and sundries are blocked by the ventilation blades 5 and are difficult to enter the box body 1; when the ventilating vane 5 is blown by wind, the first vane 51 of the ventilating vane 5 is contacted with the pressure rod 121 and is limited by the pressure rod 121, so that the ventilating vane 5 can only rotate towards the direction close to the outside when being blown by wind, thereby preventing dust impurities attached to the ventilating vane 5 from being brought into the box body 1 when the ventilating vane 5 rotates towards the box body 1, and further preventing the dust in the box body 1 from being increased and influencing the normal work of a meteorological instrument; external rainwater is rapidly accumulated in the first tank 124 at the top of the first rod 12, and more rainwater enters the first tank 124, so that the rainwater accumulated in the first tank 124 is difficult to be drained in time through the drainage pipe 125 of the first tank 124, the water level in the first tank 124 rises, and the pressure of the rainwater accumulated in the first tank 124 is increased; the first rod 12 below the first tank 124 is slidably connected with the tank cover 2, so that when the first tank 124 is pressed, the first rod 12 is pressed and slides downwards along the inner surface of the fixing ring 122, the first rod 12 on the outer surface of the first rod 12 presses the first blade 51, the first blade 51 drives the second blade 52 to rotate downwards, and because the first blade 51 and the second blade 52 are inclined to the horizontal plane, when the first blade 51 rotates downwards, the distance between adjacent first blades 51 is reduced, raindrops falling towards the inside of the louver box are blocked by the first blade 51, rainwater entering the box body 1 from the ventilation groove 11 is reduced, the rainwater entering the box body 1 is prevented from increasing the humidity inside the box body 1, and the accuracy of a detection result of a meteorological instrument on the external environment is influenced; the first blade 51 drives the end of the second blade 52 to rotate when rotating, so that the end of the second blade 52 rotates towards the direction far away from the interior of the box body 1, raindrops blown by wind slide along the surface of the second blade 52 towards the direction far away from the interior of the box body 1 after being hindered by the second blade 52, rainwater is further prevented from invading the interior of the box body 1, and normal work of a meteorological instrument is ensured; when the rainwater stops, the rainwater accumulated in the first tank 124 flows out from the drain pipe 125, and the first tank 124 is not pressed and reset, so that the first rod 12 is reset, the ventilation blade 5 is not pressed and reset, and the temperature measuring device in the box body 1 can normally function.

As an embodiment of the present invention, the outer surface of the side wall of the first tank 124 is uniformly provided with arc-shaped plates 126 around the central portion of the first tank 124, and the end portions of the arc-shaped plates 126 are connected with the upper surface of the case cover 2 through elastic ropes 127; the arc-shaped plate 126 swings under the action of wind blowing, so that the arc-shaped plate 126 drives the first rod 12 to act on the ventilating vane 5 and swing the ventilating vane 5, and raindrops attached to the ventilating vane 5 are shaken off; when the tank cover 2 works, when gust occurs outside and the gust wind power is increased, the arc-shaped plate 126 on the first tank 124 is blown to rotate, the arc-shaped plate 126 is pressed and drives the first tank 124 to rotate, and the elastic rope 127 arranged at the end part of the arc-shaped plate 126 enables the rotating arc-shaped plate 126 to be limited, so that the elastic rope 127 drives the first tank 124 to rotate and restore the original position when the gust wind power is reduced, and therefore the first tank 124 swings above the tank cover 2 in a reciprocating mode; drive a pole 12 swing when jar 124 is wobbling, make depression bar 121 that a pole 12 evenly set up rotate and act on a blade 51 along with a pole 12, make a blade 51 receive depression bar 121's striking effect in succession, thereby make a blade 51 drive No. two blade 52 violent vibrations, make the rainwater that No. two blade 52 surfaces dropped when No. two blade 52 violent vibrations is shaken off under the vibration effect, thereby avoid on No. two blade 52 that adnexed rainwater is too much and lead to on No. two blade 52 adnexed rainwater to fall into inside box 1 under the blowing effect of wind, thereby influence the normal work of the inside meteorological instrument of box 1.

As an embodiment of the invention, a limiting block 511 is arranged on the side surface of the first blade 51 close to the edge, a limiting rod 512 is arranged in the ventilation groove 11, the top and the bottom of the limiting rod 512 are respectively connected with the upper bottom surface and the lower bottom surface of the ventilation groove 11, the side surface of the limiting rod 512 is in contact with the part of the side surface of the first blade 51 close to the limiting block 511, and the side surface of the limiting rod 512 close to the limiting block 511 is subjected to sanding treatment; the rain drops entering the swinging ventilating vanes 5 are prevented from shaking down into the box body 1 through the action of the limiting rods 512 and the limiting blocks 511; when the ventilating vane works, the ventilating vane 5 is separated from the limiting rod 512 under the action of the pressure rod 121 and rotates towards the direction close to the outside, so that raindrops attached to the ventilating vane 5 are shaken off to the outside along with the rotating ventilating vane 5; when the ventilating vane 5 is reset, the side surface of the ventilating vane 5 close to the limiting rod 512 is contacted with the limiting rod 512, and because the surface of the limiting rod 512 contacted with the ventilating vane 5 is subjected to sanding treatment, the ventilating vane 5 is subjected to larger friction force after being contacted with the limiting rod 512, so that the rotating speed of the ventilating vane 5 is gradually reduced until the limiting block 511 on the ventilating vane 5 is contacted with the limiting rod 512, and the ventilating vane 5 stops rotating; in the process, the ventilation blades 5 are gradually decelerated to stop, so that the ventilation blades 5 are prevented from directly colliding with the limiting rod 512 and stopping, and raindrops attached to the ventilation blades 5 fall into the box body 1 under the inertia effect; moreover, through the limiting action of the limiting rod 512, the ventilation vanes 5 are prevented from rotating towards the direction close to the inner side of the box body 1 and spraying raindrops attached to the ventilation vanes into the box body 1, and the normal work of the meteorological instrument in the box body 1 is ensured.

As an embodiment of the present invention, the width of the first blade 51 is greater than the distance between the adjacent fixing rods 111, and the limitation on the width of the first blade 51 prevents the gap between the adjacent first blades 51 from being too large, so that a large amount of external rainwater or dust invades into the interior of the box 1, thereby affecting the normal operation of the meteorological instrument inside the box 1; during operation, because the width of a blade 51 is greater than the interval between the adjacent dead lever 111, consequently when a blade 51 pressurized and pivoted range is great, contact each other between the adjacent blade 51 for ventilation blade 5 on the shutter box is in the closed condition, has further avoided outside rainwater to get into inside box 1, has guaranteed that the meteorological instrument of box 1 inside obtains guard action effectively in heavy rain weather.

As an embodiment of the invention, the first groove 521 is uniformly arranged on the upper surface of the second vane 52, and the outlet end of the first groove 521 is obliquely directed downwards; through the action of the first groove 521, external dust and impurities are blocked by the first groove 521 through the second blade 52 and are collected into the first groove 521, so that the external dust and impurities are prevented from entering the box body 1; when the dust and impurity collecting box works, when dust and impurity blown by wind outside the box body 1 moves towards the direction close to the inside of the box body 1, the dust and impurity firstly contacts with the upper surface of the second blade 52; the dust impurities are under the action of wind and are blocked by the first grooves 521 uniformly arranged on the second blades 52 when sliding on the upper surfaces of the second blades 52, so that the dust impurities fall into the first grooves 521, the dust impurities entering the box body 1 are reduced, and the normal work of a meteorological instrument inside the box body 1 is further ensured; also, since the outlet end of the first slot 521 is directed obliquely downward, when the wind direction changes so that the second blade 52 swings toward the outside, the dust in the first slot 521 escapes from the second blade 52 by the vibration of the second blade 52 and is shaken off to the outside environment.

As an embodiment of the present invention, a first channel 128 is provided inside each first rod 12, the top of the first channel 128 communicates with the inside of the first tank 124, and a filter screen 129 is provided inside the first tank 124 at a position close to the first channel 128; a first elastic tube 522 is arranged on the outer surface of the first rod 12 corresponding to the second blade 52, one end of the first elastic tube 522 is communicated with the interior of the first channel 128, the other end of the first elastic tube 522 passes through the joint of the first blade 51 and the second blade 52 to be communicated with a second groove 523 arranged in the second blade 52, and the second groove 523 is respectively communicated with the bottom of the first groove 521; the first channel 128 and the first elastic tube 522 are not arranged inside the first rod 12 close to the box door 3; the filtered rainwater is injected into the second groove 523 through the first elastic pipe 522 by the action of the first channel 128, so that dust impurities in the first groove 521 are removed; in operation, a part of rainwater in the first tank 124 flows downwards along the first channel 128 in the first rod 12, rainwater flowing along the first channel 128 flows out of the first elastic tube 522 and flows into the second groove 523 along the first elastic tube 522; since the second groove 523 is communicated with the bottom of each first groove 521, rainwater flowing into the second groove 523 from the first elastic pipe 522 flows to the outside through the first groove 521, and dust and impurities accumulated in the first groove 521 are impacted and removed in the process that the rainwater flows along the first groove 521, so that the first groove 521 on the second blade 52 can normally function; moreover, because the filter screen 129 is arranged at the part, close to the first channel 128, in the first tank 124, rainwater flowing into the first channel 128 is filtered by the filter screen 129, and thus, the blockage of impurities mixed in the rainwater on the first elastic pipe 522 is effectively avoided; in addition, because the door 3 needs to be opened, the first rod 12 close to the ventilation blade 5 on the door 3 is not provided with the first channel 128 and the first elastic tube 522, so that the situation that the first elastic tube 522 on the first channel 128 obstructs the opening of the door 3 is avoided, and therefore the door 3 can be smoothly opened by an observer and data in an internal meteorological instrument can be recorded.

When the louver box works, the louver box is usually installed in an open area and no obstacles are arranged around the louver box, so when wind and rain appear outside, dust sundries blown by wind cannot be blocked by the obstacles and directly contact with the louver box in the floating process, and the external dust sundries can influence the normal work of meteorological instruments inside the louver box after entering the louver box; the ventilation blades 5 uniformly arranged on the ventilation grooves 11 of the louver box are inclined to the horizontal plane, so that external dust and sundries are blocked by the ventilation blades 5 and are difficult to enter the box body 1; when the ventilating vane 5 is blown by wind, the first vane 51 of the ventilating vane 5 is contacted with the pressure rod 121 and is limited by the pressure rod 121, so that the ventilating vane 5 can only rotate towards the direction close to the outside when being blown by wind, thereby preventing dust impurities attached to the ventilating vane 5 from being brought into the box body 1 when the ventilating vane 5 rotates towards the box body 1, and further preventing the dust in the box body 1 from being increased and influencing the normal work of a meteorological instrument; external rainwater is rapidly accumulated in the first tank 124 at the top of the first rod 12, and more rainwater enters the first tank 124, so that the rainwater accumulated in the first tank 124 is difficult to be drained in time through the drainage pipe 125 of the first tank 124, the water level in the first tank 124 rises, and the pressure of the rainwater accumulated in the first tank 124 is increased; the first rod 12 below the first tank 124 is slidably connected with the tank cover 2, so that when the first tank 124 is pressed, the first rod 12 is pressed and slides downwards along the inner surface of the fixing ring 122, the first rod 12 on the outer surface of the first rod 12 presses the first blade 51, the first blade 51 drives the second blade 52 to rotate downwards, and because the first blade 51 and the second blade 52 are inclined to the horizontal plane, when the first blade 51 rotates downwards, the distance between adjacent first blades 51 is reduced, raindrops falling towards the inside of the louver box are blocked by the first blade 51, rainwater entering the box body 1 from the ventilation groove 11 is reduced, the rainwater entering the box body 1 is prevented from increasing the humidity inside the box body 1, and the accuracy of a detection result of a meteorological instrument on the external environment is influenced; the first blade 51 drives the end of the second blade 52 to rotate when rotating, so that the end of the second blade 52 rotates towards the direction far away from the interior of the box body 1, raindrops blown by wind slide along the surface of the second blade 52 towards the direction far away from the interior of the box body 1 after being hindered by the second blade 52, rainwater is further prevented from invading the interior of the box body 1, and normal work of a meteorological instrument is ensured; when the rainwater stops, the rainwater accumulated in the first tank 124 flows out of the drain pipe 125, and the first tank 124 is not pressed and reset, so that the first rod 12 is reset, the ventilation blades 5 are not pressed and reset, and the temperature measuring device in the box body 1 can normally function; when gust occurs outside and the gust wind power is increased, the arc plate 126 on the first tank 124 is blown to rotate, the arc plate 126 is pressed and drives the first tank 124 to rotate, and the elastic rope 127 arranged at the end part of the arc plate 126 enables the rotating arc plate 126 to be limited, so that the elastic rope 127 drives the first tank 124 to rotate and restore the original position when the gust wind power is reduced, and the first tank 124 swings back and forth above the tank cover 2; the first tank 124 swings and simultaneously drives the first rod 12 to swing, so that the pressure rod 121 uniformly arranged on the first rod 12 rotates along with the first rod 12 and acts on the first blade 51, the first blade 51 is continuously impacted by the pressure rod 121, the first blade 51 drives the second blade 52 to vibrate violently, rainwater dropping on the surface of the second blade 52 is shaken off under the vibration effect while the second blade 52 vibrates violently, and the phenomenon that the rainwater attached to the second blade 52 falls into the box body 1 under the blowing effect of wind due to excessive rainwater attached to the second blade 52 is avoided, and the normal work of a meteorological instrument in the box body 1 is influenced; when the ventilation blade 5 is separated from the limiting rod 512 under the action of the pressure rod 121 and rotates towards the direction close to the outside, raindrops attached to the ventilation blade 5 are shaken off to the outside along with the rotating ventilation blade 5; when the ventilating vane 5 is reset, the side surface of the ventilating vane 5 close to the limiting rod 512 is contacted with the limiting rod 512, and because the surface of the limiting rod 512 contacted with the ventilating vane 5 is subjected to sanding treatment, the ventilating vane 5 is subjected to larger friction force after being contacted with the limiting rod 512, so that the rotating speed of the ventilating vane 5 is gradually reduced until the limiting block 511 on the ventilating vane 5 is contacted with the limiting rod 512, and the ventilating vane 5 stops rotating; in the process, the ventilation blades 5 are gradually decelerated to stop, so that the ventilation blades 5 are prevented from directly colliding with the limiting rod 512 and stopping, and raindrops attached to the ventilation blades 5 fall into the box body 1 under the inertia effect; moreover, by the limiting action of the limiting rod 512, the ventilating vanes 5 are prevented from rotating towards the direction close to the inner side of the box body 1 and spraying raindrops attached to the ventilating vanes into the box body 1, so that the normal work of a meteorological instrument in the box body 1 is ensured; when the dust and impurities blown by wind outside the box body 1 move towards the direction close to the inside of the box body 1, the dust and impurities firstly contact with the upper surfaces of the second blades 52; the dust impurities are under the action of wind and are blocked by the first grooves 521 uniformly arranged on the second blades 52 when sliding on the upper surfaces of the second blades 52, so that the dust impurities fall into the first grooves 521, the dust impurities entering the box body 1 are reduced, and the normal work of a meteorological instrument inside the box body 1 is further ensured; moreover, since the outlet end of the first slot 521 is directed downward in an inclined manner, when the wind direction changes to make the second blade 52 swing in a direction close to the outside, the dust in the first slot 521 is separated from the second blade 52 by the vibration of the second blade 52 and is shaken off to the outside environment; a part of rainwater in the first tank 124 flows down along the first channel 128 in the first rod 12, and rainwater flowing along the first channel 128 flows out of the first elastic tube 522 and flows into the second groove 523 along the first elastic tube 522; since the second groove 523 is communicated with the bottom of each first groove 521, rainwater flowing into the second groove 523 from the first elastic pipe 522 flows to the outside through the first groove 521, and dust and impurities accumulated in the first groove 521 are impacted and removed in the process that the rainwater flows along the first groove 521, so that the first groove 521 on the second blade 52 can normally function; moreover, because the filter screen 129 is arranged at the part, close to the first channel 128, in the first tank 124, rainwater flowing into the first channel 128 is filtered by the filter screen 129, and thus, the blockage of impurities mixed in the rainwater on the first elastic pipe 522 is effectively avoided; in addition, because the door 3 needs to be opened, the first rod 12 close to the ventilation blade 5 on the door 3 is not provided with the first channel 128 and the first elastic tube 522, so that the situation that the first elastic tube 522 on the first channel 128 obstructs the opening of the door 3 is avoided, and therefore the door 3 can be smoothly opened by an observer and data in an internal meteorological instrument can be recorded.

The front, the back, the left, the right, the upper and the lower are all based on the figure 2 in the attached drawings of the specification, according to the standard of the observation angle of a person, the side of the device facing an observer is defined as the front, the left side of the observer is defined as the left, and the like.

In the description of the present invention, it is to be understood that the terms "center", "longitudinal", "lateral", "front", "rear", "left", "right", "vertical", "horizontal", "top", "bottom", "inner", "outer", etc., indicate orientations or positional relationships based on those shown in the drawings, and are used merely for convenience in describing the present invention and for simplifying the description, but do not indicate or imply that the device or element being referred to must have a particular orientation, be constructed and operated in a particular orientation, and thus, should not be construed as limiting the scope of the present invention.

The foregoing illustrates and describes the principles, general features, and advantages of the present invention. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above, which are described in the specification and illustrated only to illustrate the principle of the present invention, but that various changes and modifications may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, which fall within the scope of the invention as claimed. The scope of the invention is defined by the appended claims and equivalents thereof.