阅读说明：本技术 水上交通风险动态测试方法、介质及系统 (Dynamic testing method, medium and system for water traffic risk ) 是由 姜丹 张丹 鲍学欣 于 2021-06-09 设计创作，主要内容包括：本发明公开了一种水上交通风险动态测试方法、介质及系统,所述水上交通风险动态测试方法包括：通过船舶设备导出、海事部门收集和船长咨询调研提取信息,建立水上交通系统内部信息集,所述信息集包括通航环境信息、人机交互信息、船岸通信信息；结合信息流理论,对水上交通系统内部信息传递的不均匀特性进行提取和度量,利用小波变换和频谱分析,实现水上交通风险动态特性提取与解析建模；接着利用数据驱动法,构建水上交通风险动态测试模型；最后,将测试水域的水上交通系统信息异常特征值输入风险动态测试模型,得出该水域的风险计算值。本发明可以快速实现水上交通风险的动态测试,提高水上交通安全监管的效率和针对性。(The invention discloses a method, a medium and a system for dynamically testing water traffic risks, wherein the method for dynamically testing the water traffic risks comprises the following steps: establishing an internal information set of the water traffic system through ship equipment export, maritime department collection and captain consultation and investigation to extract information, wherein the information set comprises navigation environment information, human-computer interaction information and ship-shore communication information; extracting and measuring the uneven characteristics of the internal information transmission of the water traffic system by combining an information flow theory, and realizing the extraction and analysis modeling of the dynamic characteristics of the water traffic risk by utilizing wavelet transformation and spectral analysis; then, constructing a dynamic test model of the water traffic risk by using a data driving method; and finally, inputting the abnormal characteristic value of the information of the water traffic system in the tested water area into the risk dynamic test model to obtain a risk calculation value of the water area. The invention can quickly realize the dynamic test of the water traffic risk and improve the efficiency and pertinence of the water traffic safety supervision.)

1. A dynamic test method for water traffic risks is characterized by comprising the following steps:

step one, establishing an internal information set of the water traffic system through ship equipment export, maritime department collection and captain consultation and investigation and information extraction;

step two, extracting and measuring structural features in the internal information set of the water traffic system by combining an information flow theory;

thirdly, extracting and analyzing dynamic characteristics of the water traffic risk by utilizing wavelet transformation and spectral analysis;

fourthly, constructing a dynamic test model of the water traffic risk by using a data driving method;

and step five, inputting the information abnormal characteristic value of the water traffic system in the tested water area into the water traffic risk dynamic test model to obtain a risk calculation value of the water area.

2. The method for dynamically testing water traffic risk according to claim 1, wherein in the first step, the set of water traffic system internal information comprises:

navigation environment information, man-machine interaction information and ship-shore communication information.

3. The dynamic water traffic risk testing method according to claim 1, wherein in the second step, the extracting and measuring the structural features of the internal information of the water traffic system comprises measuring the non-uniformity of information interaction of the water traffic system based on an asymmetric theory:

1) the internal information interaction relationship of the water traffic system comprises four types of human-human interaction, human-ship interaction, human-environment interaction and ship-environment interaction, and the interaction relationship is used for analyzing and describing the non-uniformity of the information distribution of the traffic system;

2) the method comprises the steps of utilizing a classification method to carry out statistical analysis on interactive relations of different forms, combining consultation and investigation of shipborne equipment, file data, maritime experts and captain, analyzing influence of factors of navigation environment, navigation rules, crew quality and management system on information interaction in the water traffic system, and exploring generation, conversion and dissipation processes, evolution mechanisms and external triggering conditions of uneven information distribution;

3) the method comprises the steps of measuring asymmetric sources of the water traffic system by adopting a direct measurement method and an indirect measurement method, analyzing the physical significance of the heterogeneity distribution characteristics and the index characteristic values, and constructing a typical water traffic system information heterogeneity evaluation system by combining field knowledge.

4. The method for dynamically testing the water traffic risk according to claim 1, wherein in the third step, the extraction and the analytical modeling of the dynamic characteristics of the water traffic risk specifically include:

(1) extracting risk dynamic characteristics based on an internal structure model of a traffic system: establishing an internal interactive information set of the traffic system based on the internal structure of the traffic system, analyzing a boundary value algorithm of a risk node according to the flow feedback characteristics of interactive information, and providing a specific quantitative index and measure method suitable for the dynamic risk characteristics of the traffic system on water by combining the volatility of the time change of the risk, the difference of spatial distribution and the imbalance of time and space change, so as to perform dimension-increasing expansion on the traditional static risk definition (R ═ f · m);

(2) constructing a dynamic risk analysis model of a regional water traffic system: and analyzing information node dispersion characteristics including discreteness, heterogeneity and nonlinearity on the basis of providing risk dynamic characteristic operation indexes by combining an information interaction mode, exploring the relation between internal information interaction abnormity and traffic safety of the traffic system, constructing a regional traffic system risk multi-parameter model by using single-structure and multi-structure modeling, and providing a parameter calibration method.

5. The method for dynamically testing the water traffic risk according to claim 4, wherein the extracting of the risk dynamic characteristics based on the internal structure model of the water traffic system further comprises:

1) researching the volatility characteristics of the system risk by utilizing wavelet transformation and spectral analysis, and determining the volatility threshold value of the system risk;

2) researching the difference characteristics of spatial distribution aiming at different water areas respectively, and determining a risk space boundary;

3) and determining unbalanced characteristics such as system information distribution skewness and the like by using a data distribution theory and combining with a system safety mode research result, and providing a system risk state characterization method.

6. The dynamic water traffic risk testing method according to claim 4, wherein the regional water traffic system dynamic risk analysis model is constructed by the method comprising the following steps:

1) determining risk generating conditions by combining information transfer knowledge on the basis of obtaining information interaction sets of water traffic systems in different empty areas in different areas;

2) analyzing the relation between the transmission quantity and the transmission speed of the regional traffic information and the relation between the flow rate and the density of the regional traffic information, observing the dispersion, the heterogeneity, the nonlinearity and other characteristics of data point dispersion by comprehensively using statistical discrimination, empirical judgment and theoretical derivation means, and searching a reasonable relation model type from a macroscopic data level; deducing system comprehensive risk evolution characteristics from a microscopic individual risk source evolution level based on an external risk evolution rule, and guiding the construction of a risk analysis model;

3) based on the macroscopic analysis of the type of the relational model, by means of single-structure modeling, multi-structure modeling and the like, and by taking the characteristic values of the maximum fluctuation amplitude, the imbalance rate, the information abnormal threshold value and the like of the regional traffic risk as basic parameters, a multi-parameter and multi-dimensional regional traffic risk analysis model is formed;

4) aiming at the ubiquitous fuzziness in traffic risk modeling, accurate and efficient model parameter calibration is realized by using a computer simulation and numerical calculation method, and the influence of the fuzziness on an analysis result is overcome.

7. The dynamic water traffic risk testing method according to claim 4, wherein the dynamic water traffic risk testing model is constructed by the steps of:

(1) selecting a research water area on the basis of the risk analysis model of the water traffic system, and extracting information elements of the water traffic system;

(2) analyzing the information transfer abnormal characteristics of the water area traffic system by using an information transfer model, calculating abnormal threshold values of information delay, error, deficiency and overload of the water area traffic system, and establishing a risk dynamic calculation model based on a risk function;

(3) on the basis of a water area traffic system risk dynamic calculation model, a measurement standard and semantic expression of the risk are determined by combining a computer simulation and numerical reasoning method.

8. A computer readable storage medium storing instructions which, when executed on a computer, cause the computer to perform the method of dynamic water traffic risk testing according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

9. A dynamic water traffic risk testing system for implementing the dynamic water traffic risk testing method according to any one of claims 1 to 7, wherein the dynamic water traffic risk testing system comprises:

the information input module is used for establishing an internal information set of the water traffic system;

the characteristic extraction and analysis module is used for extracting, analyzing and modeling the dynamic characteristics of the water traffic risk;

and the risk dynamic testing module is used for dynamically testing the water traffic risk.

Technical Field

The invention belongs to the technical field of water traffic risk evaluation, and particularly relates to a water traffic risk dynamic testing method, medium and system.

Background

With the increasing traffic volume of the Yangtze river trunk lines and the complexity and changeability of navigation environments, the water transportation faces unprecedented development opportunities and risk challenges, and higher requirements are put forward for the supervision level of maritime safety.

The water traffic safety risk Evaluation methods such as the traditional Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) can be well applied to the sea, but the application of the AHP and the FCE in the water traffic safety risk identification and Evaluation of the complex water area has great limitation, so that the water traffic safety risk early warning pre-control of the Evaluation results of the AHP and the FCE in the marine supervision Process has great deviation and lag, the marine supervision decision-making department cannot effectively identify the traffic safety risk of the supervised water area, and the energy efficiency of the marine supervision department in the traffic safety risk early warning is reduced.

In recent years, with the widespread use of Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) for ships and the development of computer information technology, some researchers have started to conduct research on navigation risk assessment, ship fields, traffic flows, and the like, by means of a large amount of ship traffic data accumulated by AIS. The ship AIS technology provides a better data base for marine safety analysis, and the credibility and the practicability of marine safety analysis results are improved. Liu Zheng Jiang combines the concrete characteristics of AIS data, has proposed the space-time clustering algorithm of on-board AIS data. Shore philosophy and the like establish a dynamic field model of a ship in a limited water area based on AIS data. Zhengzhongyi and the like propose a method for extracting ship encounter information from AIS data, and draw specific ship encounter distribution based on massive AIS data. Although the AIS data-based research is not carried out aiming at traffic risk evaluation, the research result provides important theory and technology accumulation for regional sexual intercourse and ventilation risk evaluation.

Domestic and foreign researches show that the traditional traffic risk evaluation model can effectively extract and represent static risks in a human-ship-environment system, and the relation model can also reveal the risk action rule of the traffic system in a macroscopic level to a certain extent. However, by definition, the conventional methods and models cannot directly and effectively describe and evaluate the traffic risk dynamic characteristics at the area or time sequence level.

Through the above analysis, the problems and defects of the prior art are as follows:

(1) the traditional method for evaluating the water traffic safety risk mostly represents the static risk of a human-ship-environment system, so that the water traffic safety risk early warning and pre-control according to the evaluation result in the marine supervision process has larger deviation and hysteresis, the marine supervision decision-making department cannot effectively identify the traffic safety risk of the supervised water area, and the energy efficiency of the marine supervision department in the traffic safety risk early warning is reduced.

(2) The existing traffic risk evaluation method carries out risk evaluation analysis and modeling by means of static historical data, but an analytical modeling method for the dynamic characteristics of the water traffic risk is not mature, the dynamic characteristics of the water traffic risk are not clear, and the method is lacked for the analysis and dynamic evaluation method for the water traffic risk situation.

Disclosure of Invention

Aiming at the problems in the prior art, the invention provides a method, medium and system for dynamically testing water traffic risk.

The invention is realized in this way, a dynamic test method for water traffic risk, which comprises the following steps:

step one, establishing an internal information set of the water traffic system through ship equipment export, maritime department collection and captain consultation and investigation and information extraction;

secondly, extracting and measuring the structural characteristics of the internal information of the water traffic system;

thirdly, extracting and analyzing dynamic characteristics of the water traffic risk by utilizing wavelet transformation and spectral analysis;

fourthly, constructing a dynamic test model of the water traffic risk by using a data driving method;

and fifthly, inputting the abnormal characteristic value of the information of the water traffic system of the tested water area into the risk dynamic test model to obtain a risk calculation value of the water area.

Further, in the first step, the internal information set of the water transportation system includes: navigation environment information, man-machine interaction information and ship-shore communication information.

Further, in the second step, the extracting and measuring the structural features of the internal information of the water transportation system specifically includes:

(1) measuring the uneven characteristic of information interaction of the water traffic system based on an asymmetric theory: analyzing information interaction and distribution forms of a man-ship-environment space under the same regional environment, determining circulation, conversion, retardation and external triggering conditions of the man-ship-environment space information, respectively researching information non-uniformity characteristics among four associations of man-man, man-ship, man-environment and ship-environment by applying an asymmetry theory, and constructing an information set and non-uniformity grading evaluation system of the water traffic system;

(2) measuring the time lag of the water traffic system based on man-machine conflict: according to the information transfer model, an information operation mechanism between the subject and the object is established and recognized, the reaction time, the data delay and the information transfer retardation of a person are comprehensively considered, a regional water traffic system time lag measuring and calculating method is provided, and the time lag of the water traffic system is subjected to three-dimensional representation and quantification by using a system time varying theory.

Further, in the step (1), the measuring the uneven characteristic of the information interaction of the water traffic system based on the asymmetric theory specifically includes:

1) the internal information interaction relationship of the water traffic system comprises four types of human-human interaction, human-ship interaction, human-environment interaction and ship-environment interaction, and the interaction relationship is used for analyzing and describing the non-uniformity of the information distribution of the traffic system;

2) the method comprises the steps of utilizing a classification method to carry out statistical analysis on interactive relations of different forms, combining consultation and investigation of shipborne equipment, file data, maritime experts and captain, analyzing influence of factors of navigation environment, navigation rules, crew quality and management system on information interaction in the water traffic system, and determining generation, conversion and dissipation processes of uneven information distribution, evolution mechanisms and external trigger conditions of the information distribution;

3) the measurement problem of the uneven characteristics of the traffic system information is characterized as the problem of traffic safety information asymmetry, a direct measurement method and an indirect measurement method are adopted to measure the sources of the various asymmetry problems of the overwater traffic system, and a typical water area traffic system information uneven characteristic evaluation system is constructed.

Further, the step (2) further comprises: based on historical ship accident data, a man-machine conflict scene under different navigation environments and decision conditions is constructed by applying a man-machine conflict theory, and a man-machine conflict time lag security domain is determined by combining a risk dynamic evolution rule.

Further, in the third step, the extracting risk dynamics based on the internal structure model of the traffic system includes:

1) researching the volatility characteristics of the system risk by utilizing wavelet transformation and spectral analysis, and determining the volatility threshold value of the system risk;

2) researching the difference characteristics of spatial distribution aiming at different water areas respectively, and determining a risk space boundary;

3) and determining the unbalanced characteristic of system information distribution by using a data distribution theory and combining with a system security mode research result, and providing a system risk state characterization method.

Further, in the third step, the construction of the regional marine traffic system dynamic risk analysis model includes:

1) determining risk generating conditions by combining information transfer knowledge on the basis of obtaining information interaction of the regional water traffic system;

2) analyzing the relation between the transmission quantity and the transmission speed of the regional traffic information and the relation between the flow rate and the density of the regional traffic information, observing the dispersion, the heterogeneity and the nonlinear characteristics of data point distribution by comprehensively using statistical discrimination, empirical judgment and theoretical derivation means, and determining a reasonable relation model type from a macroscopic data level; deducing system comprehensive risk evolution characteristics from a microscopic individual risk source evolution level based on an external risk evolution rule;

3) based on the macroscopic analysis of the type of the relational model, a single-structure and multi-structure modeling means is applied, and the maximum fluctuation amplitude, the imbalance rate and the information abnormal threshold value characteristic value of the regional traffic risk are used as basic parameters to form a multi-parameter and multi-dimensional regional traffic risk analysis model;

4) aiming at the ubiquitous fuzziness in the traffic risk modeling, accurate and efficient model parameter calibration is realized by using a computer simulation and numerical calculation method, and the influence of the fuzziness on an analysis result is overcome.

Further, in the fourth step, the construction of the dynamic test model of the water traffic risk includes:

(1) selecting a research water area on the basis of the risk analysis model of the water traffic system, and extracting information elements of the water traffic system;

(2) analyzing the information transfer abnormal characteristics of the water area traffic system by using an information transfer model, calculating abnormal threshold values of information delay, error, deficiency and overload of the water area traffic system, and establishing a risk dynamic calculation model based on a risk function;

(3) and determining the measurement standard and semantic expression of the risk by combining a computer simulation and numerical reasoning method on the basis of the dynamic risk calculation model.

Another object of the present invention is to provide a computer-readable storage medium storing instructions which, when executed on a computer, cause the computer to execute the method for dynamically testing water traffic risk.

Another object of the present invention is to provide a dynamic water traffic risk testing system for implementing the dynamic water traffic risk testing method, the dynamic water traffic risk testing system comprising:

the system structure feature extraction and measurement module is used for extracting and measuring the internal structure features of the water traffic system;

the risk dynamic characteristic extraction and analysis modeling module is used for extracting and analyzing and modeling the dynamic characteristics of the water traffic risk;

and the risk dynamic test model building module is used for building a water traffic risk dynamic test model.

The invention mainly embodies the following theories and technical innovations:

(1) on the basis of a mutation theory and a Bayesian network, the method is initiated to carry out cutting-in from the angle of internal information interaction of a human-ship-environment system, deeply excavate the internal association between the abnormal information interaction of the water traffic system and the water traffic risk, extract and analyze modeling from the internal structural characteristics and measurement of the water traffic system, and the dynamic characteristic of the regional water traffic risk, and deeply excavate the three aspects of the regional water traffic risk dynamic characteristic to form a systematic theory and a method for dynamically testing the water traffic risk, thereby providing theoretical and technical support for early warning and pre-controlling the traffic safety risk of water areas such as a curved channel, a continuous bridge area water area, a junction water area, a reservoir area water area and the like.

(2) The invention explores the dynamic characteristics of the water traffic risk in multidimensional space-time to develop original research, and the system forms a regional water traffic risk situation analysis theory and method, thereby providing a theory and method support for the microcosmic level research and supervision means innovation of the water traffic system in the complex water area.

(3) The method is creatively switched into an angle of abnormal information interaction in the water traffic system to analyze the internal cause of traffic risk, provides a regional water traffic information nonuniformity and system time lag measurement method facing a complex water area, and realizes quantitative description of the internal structural characteristics of the regional water traffic system.

(4) The method comprises the steps of exploring the relation between the internal information interaction abnormity of the water traffic system and the water traffic safety, and providing a water traffic system risk dynamic characteristic index and a model based on information asymmetry, wherein the model can describe the action relation between the regional water traffic risk operation index and the traffic safety state.

Drawings

In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments of the present invention will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art that other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without creative efforts.

Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a dynamic water traffic risk testing method provided by an embodiment of the invention.

Fig. 2 is a schematic logic relationship diagram of a dynamic water traffic risk testing method provided by an embodiment of the invention.

Fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of an information transfer anomaly measure of a regional water transportation system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 4 is a regional marine traffic risk analytic modeling process provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 5 is a schematic diagram of an establishing process of a dynamic evaluation model of water traffic risk provided by an embodiment of the invention.

Detailed Description

In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is further described in detail with reference to the following embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not intended to limit the invention.

The embodiment of the invention aims to realize the research on the dynamic test method of the water traffic risk, solve the risk evaluation problem in the water traffic risk research, and assist the maritime supervision department to realize the early warning and pre-control of the water traffic safety risk, thereby reducing the occurrence of water traffic accidents and improving the water traffic safety.

According to the embodiment of the invention, the water traffic risk analysis model and the dynamic test model are established by collecting and researching water traffic information of a water area, so that the evaluation and the test of the water traffic risk are realized. As shown in fig. 1, the method for dynamically testing the water traffic risk provided by the embodiment of the invention comprises the following steps:

and S101, establishing an internal information set of the water traffic system through ship equipment export, maritime department collection and captain consultation and investigation to extract information. The information collected in this embodiment mainly includes:

navigation environment information: channel width, channel bend radius, channel depth, current flow rate, wind power, wind speed, visibility.

Human-computer interaction information: the system comprises a driving platform operation instruction, radar collision avoidance information, AIS interaction information and VHF communication information.

Ship bank communication information: ship motion information, voyage number information, voyage warning information and safety supervision information.

S102, classifying and defining the uneven characteristic of information transmission in the water traffic system by combining an information flow theory; the method comprises four characteristics of internal information delay of the water traffic system, internal information error of the water traffic system, internal information loss of the water traffic system and internal information overload of the water traffic system. The specific information set internal transfer heterogeneity classification is shown in table 1.

TABLE 1 internal information set transmission heterogeneity classification chart for water traffic system

S103, extracting and analyzing dynamic characteristics of the water traffic risk by utilizing wavelet transformation and spectral analysis; researching the volatility characteristics of the system risk through wavelet transformation and spectrum analysis, and determining the volatility threshold value of the system risk;

the Morlet wavelet is a complex exponential function under a Gaussian envelope with the real part:

the fourier transform can be expressed as:

in the formula: f. of_cIs the center frequency, a is the transformation scale, f_bAre parameters that control the shape of the wavelet. Center frequency f_cDetermines the oscillation frequency and shape parameter f of wavelet waveform_bDetermines how fast the waveform oscillation decays.

And establishing an internal interactive information set of the traffic system based on the internal structure of the traffic system, calculating a boundary value of a risk node according to the flow feedback characteristic of interactive information, and acquiring waveform parameters of the risk of the water traffic system by combining the characteristics of risk time change volatility, space distribution difference, space-time change imbalance and the like.

S104, constructing a dynamic test model of the water traffic risk by using a data driving method; the dynamic test model of the water traffic risk is based on the monitoring value of the change of the risk index along with the time, and is combined with the risk evaluation index to establish a risk function and dynamically test the water traffic risk. The calculation method of the water traffic risk function comprises the following steps:

the monitored values of the risk indicator are represented as a time series:

X_i＝{x_i(t_i1),x_i(t_i2),x_i(t_i3),x_i(t_i4),...,x_i(t_ia)

wherein, X_iSequence of risk monitoring values, x, as index i_i(t_ia) Is that the index i is at t_iaThe monitoring value at the time, a, is the total number of monitoring times of the index i.

The risk indicator monitoring values can be expressed as the following time series after being standardized:

R_i＝{R_i(t_i1),R_i(t_i2),R_i(t_i3),R_i(t_i4),...,R_i(t_ia)

the risk function calculation method reflecting the dynamic characteristics of the water traffic risk comprises the following steps:

wherein m is the number of risk assessment indices, w_iThe risk factor of the ith risk indicator. The risk factors correspond to 5 grades, respectively [ very low, 0.1; low, 0.3; medium, 0.5; high, 0.7; very high, 0.9]。

S105: and finally, inputting the abnormal characteristic value of the information of the water traffic system in the tested water area into the risk dynamic test model to obtain a risk calculation value of the water area.

And inputting the acquired risk monitoring index time sequence value into a risk function calculation model, and finally obtaining a risk dynamic time sequence curve of the water area.

Persons skilled in the art can also use other steps to implement the dynamic water traffic risk testing method provided by the present invention, and the dynamic water traffic risk testing method provided by the present invention in fig. 1 is only one specific example.

In the above embodiments, the implementation may be wholly or partially realized by software, hardware, firmware, or any combination thereof. When used in whole or in part, can be implemented in a computer program product that includes one or more computer instructions. When loaded or executed on a computer, cause the flow or functions according to embodiments of the invention to occur, in whole or in part. The computer may be a general purpose computer, a special purpose computer, a network of computers, or other programmable device. The computer instructions may be stored in a computer readable storage medium or transmitted from one computer readable storage medium to another, for example, the computer instructions may be transmitted from one website site, computer, server, or data center to another website site, computer, server, or data center via wire (e.g., coaxial cable, fiber optic, Digital Subscriber Line (DSL), or wireless (e.g., infrared, wireless, microwave, etc.)). The computer-readable storage medium can be any available medium that can be accessed by a computer or a data storage device, such as a server, a data center, etc., that includes one or more of the available media. The usable medium may be a magnetic medium (e.g., floppy Disk, hard Disk, magnetic tape), an optical medium (e.g., DVD), or a semiconductor medium (e.g., Solid State Disk (SSD)), among others.

The above description is only for the purpose of illustrating the present invention and the appended claims are not to be construed as limiting the scope of the invention, which is intended to cover all modifications, equivalents and improvements that are within the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.