阅读说明：本技术 一种基于风险评估的电力设备检修策略优化方法和系统 (Power equipment maintenance strategy optimization method and system based on risk assessment ) 是由 莫文雄 栾乐 许中 罗思敏 崔屹平 徐硕 周凯 刘田 刘俊翔 于 2021-07-23 设计创作，主要内容包括：本发明提供一种基于风险评估的电力设备检修策略优化方法和系统,包括,S1.对当前电力系统进行功能划分和建模并确定待监测的子系统；S2.获取待监测的子系统的历史负荷数据并分析当前各类故障的发生概率；S3.根据当前故障的发生概率和所造成的损失计算风险值。通过上述方式,首先对电力系统进行功能划分和建模并确定待监测的子系统,然后根据各个子系统的故障发生概率和故障所造成的损失计算对应的风险值；最后根据得到的风险值确定相应的检修策略,可以减少不必要的检修、维护等,使检修部门把注意力和资源集中到最有意义的检修活动上,使检修活动得到有力的保证。(The invention provides a method and a system for optimizing a power equipment maintenance strategy based on risk assessment, which comprises the following steps of S1, carrying out function division and modeling on a current power system and determining a subsystem to be monitored; s2, acquiring historical load data of a subsystem to be monitored and analyzing the occurrence probability of various faults at present; and S3, calculating a risk value according to the occurrence probability of the current fault and the caused loss. According to the mode, firstly, the power system is subjected to function division and modeling, the subsystems to be monitored are determined, and then corresponding risk values are calculated according to the fault occurrence probability of each subsystem and the loss caused by the fault; and finally, determining a corresponding maintenance strategy according to the obtained risk value, thereby reducing unnecessary maintenance, maintenance and the like, enabling a maintenance department to concentrate attention and resources on the most meaningful maintenance activities, and enabling the maintenance activities to be powerfully guaranteed.)

1. A power equipment maintenance strategy optimization method based on risk assessment is characterized by comprising the following steps:

s1, performing function division and modeling on a current power system and determining a subsystem to be monitored;

s2, acquiring historical load data of a subsystem to be monitored and analyzing the occurrence probability of various faults at present;

and S3, calculating a risk value according to the occurrence probability of the current fault and the caused loss, performing risk evaluation, and generating a corresponding maintenance strategy according to an evaluation result.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the sub-systems to be monitored in S1 are determined by a comprehensive ranking of the impact on the power system after failure, historical failure probability, failure repair costs, and preventive maintenance investment costs.

3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the current power system is functionally divided and modeled in S1 according to basic functions of each subsystem and auxiliary functions of the power system; the basic functions are the basic functions of all subsystems in all corresponding subsystems of the power system; the auxiliary functions are auxiliary functions for each subsystem, including but not limited to support and attachment.

4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the risk value in S3 is calculated by:

R(t)＝L(t)*P(t)＝(L_A(t)*Q_A+L_N(t)*Q_N)*P(t)

wherein R (t) represents a risk assessment value; t represents the current time; l (t) represents a loss caused by a failure at the present time; p (t) represents the probability of occurrence of a fault at the present time; la (t) represents asset loss due to failure; ln (t) represents grid operating losses due to faults; q_ARepresents the weight that the asset lost; q_NRepresenting the weight occupied by the grid operating losses.

5. The method according to claim 1, wherein when performing the risk assessment in S3, a risk level of the current fault is classified according to the risk value, and a corresponding maintenance strategy is output according to the risk level.

6. The method according to claim 1, further comprising predicting the failure risk of each subsystem according to the current risk value and the historical risk value and continuing to visually display the prediction result.

7. A power equipment overhaul strategy optimization system based on risk assessment is characterized by comprising:

the function division and modeling module is used for carrying out function division and modeling on the current power system and determining a subsystem to be monitored;

the fault probability analysis module is used for acquiring historical load data of the subsystem to be monitored and analyzing the occurrence probability of various faults at present;

and the maintenance strategy analysis module is used for calculating a risk value according to the occurrence probability of the current fault and the caused loss, performing risk evaluation and generating a corresponding maintenance strategy according to an evaluation result.

8. The power equipment overhaul strategy optimization system of claim 7, further comprising: and the risk prediction module is used for predicting the fault risk of each subsystem according to the current risk value and the historical risk value and continuously displaying the prediction result in a visualized manner.

Technical Field

The invention relates to the technical field of electric power equipment maintenance, in particular to a method and a system for optimizing an electric power equipment maintenance strategy based on risk assessment.

Background

At present, for a power grid, the operation cost needs to be controlled as much as possible on the premise of ensuring the operation reliability; the optimization of the maintenance mode is an important means for controlling the operation cost and is a technical management work with strong strategy. In recent years, domestic and foreign power grids are developed to mainly carry out regular maintenance, and a maintenance mode for prolonging or shortening the period is determined by combining experience. However, with the expansion of the power grid and the increase of the equipment, potential problems in a mode mainly based on the periodic maintenance are gradually exposed, and even hazards may begin to be formed, for example, the manpower and material resources required by the periodic maintenance are too large, the normal operation of the equipment is affected, and the possibility of misoperation is increased. Because the mode mainly based on the regular maintenance has obvious problems, an optimization method for the maintenance strategy and the maintenance mode is urgently needed to be provided, so that the maintenance cost of equipment is reduced while the high reliability of the operation of a power grid is kept.

Disclosure of Invention

The invention aims to provide a method and a system for optimizing a power equipment maintenance strategy based on risk assessment, which are used for realizing the technical effect of reducing the equipment maintenance cost while keeping high reliability of power grid operation.

In a first aspect, the invention provides a power equipment overhaul strategy optimization method based on risk assessment, which comprises the following steps:

s1, performing function division and modeling on a current power system and determining a subsystem to be monitored;

s2, acquiring historical load data of a subsystem to be monitored and analyzing the occurrence probability of various faults at present;

and S3, calculating a risk value according to the occurrence probability of the current fault and the caused loss, performing risk evaluation, and generating a corresponding maintenance strategy according to an evaluation result.

Further, the sub-system to be monitored in S1 is determined by a comprehensive ranking of the impact on the power system after the fault, the historical fault probability, the fault maintenance cost, and the preventive maintenance investment cost.

Further, in the step S1, when the current power system is functionally divided and modeled, modeling is performed according to the basic functions of the subsystems and the auxiliary functions of the power system; the basic functions are the basic functions of all subsystems in all corresponding subsystems of the power system; the auxiliary functions are auxiliary functions for each subsystem, including but not limited to support and attachment.

Further, the calculation manner of the risk value in S3 is as follows:

R(t)＝L(t)*P(t)＝(LA(t)*QA+LN(t)*QN)*P(t)

wherein R (t) represents a risk assessment value; t represents the current time; l (t) represents a loss caused by a failure at the present time; p (t) represents the probability of occurrence of a fault at the present time; la (t) represents asset loss due to failure; ln (t) represents grid operating losses due to faults; q_ARepresents the weight that the asset lost; q_NRepresenting the weight occupied by the grid operating losses.

Further, when performing risk assessment in S3, the risk level of the current fault is divided according to the risk value, and a corresponding overhaul strategy is output according to the risk level.

Furthermore, the method also comprises the steps of predicting the fault risk of each subsystem according to the current risk value and the historical risk value and continuing to visually display the prediction result.

In a second aspect, the present invention provides a power equipment overhaul strategy optimization system based on risk assessment, including: the function division and modeling module is used for carrying out function division and modeling on the current power system and determining a subsystem to be monitored;

the fault probability analysis module is used for acquiring historical load data of the subsystem to be monitored and analyzing the occurrence probability of various faults at present;

and the maintenance strategy analysis module is used for calculating a risk value according to the occurrence probability of the current fault and the caused loss, performing risk evaluation and generating a corresponding maintenance strategy according to an evaluation result.

Further, the power equipment overhaul strategy optimization system further comprises: and the risk prediction module is used for predicting the fault risk of each subsystem according to the current risk value and the historical risk value and continuously displaying the prediction result in a visualized manner.

The beneficial effects that the invention can realize are as follows: the method for optimizing the maintenance strategy of the power equipment comprises the steps of firstly, carrying out function division and modeling on a power system, determining subsystems to be monitored, and then calculating corresponding risk values according to the fault occurrence probability of each subsystem and the loss caused by the fault; and finally, determining a corresponding maintenance strategy according to the obtained risk value, thereby reducing unnecessary maintenance, maintenance and the like, enabling a maintenance department to concentrate attention and resources on the most meaningful maintenance activities, and enabling the maintenance activities to be powerfully guaranteed.

Drawings

In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments of the present invention will be briefly described below, it should be understood that the following drawings only illustrate some embodiments of the present invention and therefore should not be considered as limiting the scope, and for those skilled in the art, other related drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without inventive efforts.

Fig. 1 is a schematic flowchart of a power equipment overhaul strategy optimization method based on risk assessment according to an embodiment of the present invention;

fig. 2 is a schematic view of a topological structure of a power equipment overhaul strategy optimization system based on risk assessment according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Icon: 10-a power equipment maintenance strategy optimization system; 100-functional partitioning and modeling module; 200-failure probability analysis module; 300-maintenance strategy analysis module; 400-risk prediction module.

Detailed Description

The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention.

It should be noted that: like reference numbers and letters refer to like items in the following figures, and thus, once an item is defined in one figure, it need not be further defined and explained in subsequent figures. Meanwhile, in the description of the present invention, the terms "first", "second", and the like are used only for distinguishing the description, and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance.

Referring to fig. 1, fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a power equipment overhaul strategy optimization method based on risk assessment according to an embodiment of the present invention.

In an implementation manner, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for optimizing a power equipment overhaul policy based on risk assessment, which is specifically described below.

S1, performing function division and modeling on a current power system and determining a subsystem to be monitored.

Specifically, for an electric power system, the electric power system may be generally divided into a plurality of subsystems, such as a power generation system, a power transmission system, and a power distribution system, and each subsystem may be further divided into a plurality of subsystems; for example, the power generation system may be subdivided into subsystems such as generators and transformers. Among the subsystems, the effect of a failure problem of each subsystem on the entire power system varies. Thus, in one embodiment, the subsystem to be monitored may be determined by a comprehensive ranking of the impact on the power system after a fault, the historical probability of the fault, the cost of the troubleshooting and the cost of the preventative maintenance investment. The basic principles include the following four:

1. a subsystem which can cause serious influence on the operation of the power system after a fault;

2. subsystems with higher failure rates in the last year;

3. subsystems with higher fault maintenance cost in recent years;

4. the current preventive maintenance invests in costly subsystems.

According to the above principle, each subsystem can be ranked according to the number related to the above principle, and the monitoring priority is established according to the ranking order. If the subsystem only relates to one of the four principles, the monitoring priority is established according to the sequence of the four principles 1-4.

When the current power system is functionally divided and modeled, modeling can be performed according to the basic functions of each subsystem and the auxiliary functions of the power system; the basic functions are the basic functions of all subsystems in all corresponding subsystems of the power system; the auxiliary functions are auxiliary functions for each subsystem, including but not limited to support and attachment.

And S2, acquiring historical load data of the subsystem to be monitored and analyzing the occurrence probability of various faults at present.

Specifically, after the historical load data of the subsystem to be monitored is acquired, the probability of the failure of the subsystem under each environmental condition can be analyzed according to the historical load data.

And S3, calculating a risk value according to the occurrence probability of the current fault and the caused loss, performing risk evaluation, and generating a corresponding maintenance strategy according to an evaluation result.

In one embodiment, the risk value is calculated by:

R(t)＝L(t)*P(t)＝(LA(t)*QA+LN(t)*QN)*P(t)

wherein R (t) represents a risk assessment value; t represents the current time; l (t) represents a loss caused by a failure at the present time; p (t) meterShowing the fault occurrence probability at the current moment; la (t) represents asset loss due to failure; ln (t) represents grid operating losses due to faults; q_ARepresents the weight that the asset lost; q_NRepresenting the weight occupied by the grid operating losses.

For example, when performing risk assessment, the risk level of the current fault may be divided according to the risk value, and a corresponding overhaul policy may be output according to the risk level. In one embodiment, a corresponding service strategy may be formulated in the manner of table 1.

TABLE 1

By dividing the risk value grades, the visual assessment of the risk is realized, corresponding measures can be correspondingly taken, and the maintenance activities are directly or quantitatively arranged according to the sequence, so that the reasonable judgment is carried out in the logic decision of the system reliability and the cost. The quantitative and visual result enables the overhaul decision process to be easier to operate, and meanwhile, the interference of human factors is avoided to a greater extent. In order to more clearly understand the content of the present application, the embodiment of the present invention also develops a study on a power transmission system in a certain area, divides 4 double-circuit lines as subsystems, and calculates the risk values as shown in table 2, where the current risk values are given for an iron tower, a ground wire, and a double-circuit line.

TABLE 2

As can be seen from table 2, the risk values of the iron towers on the line B, C, D all exceed 0.2, and are in a medium risk level, appropriate measures should be taken to enhance the monitoring of the iron towers and estimate possible faults in time, while the risk values of other subsystems are all lower than 0.2, so that the risk is low and the system can operate normally.

On the basis of the above implementation, the method provided by the present invention further includes: and predicting the fault risk of each subsystem according to the current risk value and the historical risk value, and continuously and visually displaying the prediction result. And a maintenance plan can be better formulated according to the prediction result.

Referring to fig. 2, fig. 2 is a schematic view of a topology structure of a power equipment overhaul strategy optimization system based on risk assessment according to an embodiment of the present invention.

In an implementation manner, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a power equipment overhaul policy optimization system 10 based on risk assessment, where the power equipment overhaul policy optimization system 10 includes:

the functional partitioning and modeling module 100 is used for functionally partitioning and modeling the current power system and determining a subsystem to be monitored;

a fault probability analysis module 200, configured to obtain historical load data of a subsystem to be monitored and analyze occurrence probabilities of various current faults;

and the overhaul strategy analysis module 300 is configured to calculate a risk value according to the occurrence probability of the current fault and the caused loss, perform risk assessment, and generate a corresponding overhaul strategy according to an assessment result.

Further, the above system further comprises: and a risk prediction module 400, wherein the risk prediction module 400 is used for predicting the failure risk of each subsystem according to the current risk value and the historical risk value and continuing to display the prediction result in a visualized manner.

By the mode, the equipment maintenance cost can be reduced while the high reliability of the operation of the power grid is kept.

In summary, embodiments of the present invention provide a method and a system for optimizing a power equipment overhaul policy based on risk assessment, including: s1, performing function division and modeling on a current power system and determining a subsystem to be monitored; s2, acquiring historical load data of a subsystem to be monitored and analyzing the occurrence probability of various faults at present; and S3, calculating a risk value according to the occurrence probability of the current fault and the caused loss, performing risk evaluation, and generating a corresponding maintenance strategy according to an evaluation result. The maintenance cost of the equipment is reduced while the high reliability of the operation of the power grid is maintained.

The above description is only for the specific embodiments of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art can easily conceive of the changes or substitutions within the technical scope of the present invention, and all the changes or substitutions should be covered within the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.