阅读说明：本技术 一种台风移动的预测方法和装置 (Typhoon movement prediction method and device ) 是由 郑丽娜 张子涵 于 2020-12-25 设计创作，主要内容包括：本发明实施例提供了一种台风移动的预测方法和装置,所述台风移动的预测方法,包括：步骤1,获取台风的路径数据；步骤2,根据所述台风的路径数据,生成台风数据；步骤3,获取与所述台风的时间序列一致的环境场格点数据；步骤4,根据所述环境场格点数据,生成距离所述台风中心的不同纬距、整个对流层的不同层次的环境风数据；步骤5,对所述台风数据和所述环境风数据进行相关性计算,生成所述台风数据和所述环境风数据之间的相关系数；步骤6,根据所述相关系数,选择影响所述台风移动的环境风；步骤7,根据选择的所述环境风,预测台风的移动趋势。(The embodiment of the invention provides a method and a device for predicting typhoon movement, wherein the method for predicting typhoon movement comprises the following steps: step 1, obtaining path data of typhoon; step 2, generating typhoon data according to the path data of the typhoon; step 3, obtaining environmental field lattice point data consistent with the typhoon time sequence; step 4, generating environmental wind data of different weft distances from the center of the typhoon and different levels of the whole troposphere according to the environmental field lattice point data; step 5, carrying out correlation calculation on the typhoon data and the environmental wind data to generate a correlation coefficient between the typhoon data and the environmental wind data; step 6, selecting environmental wind influencing the movement of the typhoon according to the correlation coefficient; and 7, predicting the moving trend of the typhoon according to the selected environmental wind.)

1. A method for predicting typhoon movement, comprising:

step 1, obtaining path data of typhoon;

step 2, generating typhoon data according to the path data of the typhoon;

step 3, obtaining environmental field lattice point data consistent with the typhoon time sequence;

step 4, generating environmental wind data of different weft distances from the center of the typhoon and different levels of the whole troposphere according to the environmental field lattice point data;

step 5, carrying out correlation calculation on the typhoon data and the environmental wind data to generate a correlation coefficient between the typhoon data and the environmental wind data;

step 6, selecting environmental wind influencing the movement of the typhoon according to the correlation coefficient;

and 7, predicting the moving trend of the typhoon according to the selected environmental wind.

2. The method of claim 1,

the typhoon data includes: the speed of movement (dx, dy) and the direction of movement (dr) of the typhoon;

the ambient wind data includes: the wind direction control method comprises the following steps of (1) obtaining ambient wind full wind speed (U, V), ambient wind full wind direction (rad), ambient wind high-pass wind speed (Uh, Vh) of different time periods, ambient wind high-pass wind speed (radh) of different time periods, ambient wind low-pass wind speed (Ul, Vl) of different time periods and ambient wind low-pass wind speed (radl) of different time periods;

wherein, U is the component of the total wind speed of the environmental wind in the east-west direction, and V is the component of the total wind speed of the environmental wind in the north-south direction;

uh is the high-pass wind speed component of the environmental wind in the east-west direction, and Vh is the high-pass wind speed component of the environmental wind in the north-south direction;

ul is an environmental wind low-pass wind speed component in the east-west direction, and Vl is an environmental wind low-pass wind speed component in the north-south direction.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the step 2 comprises:

assuming that the position of the typhoon at the time T { ti, i ═ 1,2,3, ·, n } is L { (loni, lati), i ═ 1,2,3, ·, n }, the velocity vector of the typhoon at the time tx is Dx (Dx)_x,dy_x)；

Namely, the moving speed of the typhoon is D { (dxi, dyi), i { (1, 2,3, ·, n-1 };

the direction of the typhoon is described by a direction angle:

dx_i>when the content is equal to 0, the content,

dx_i<at the time of 0, the number of the first,

4. the method of claim 1, wherein the step 4 comprises:

taking points with equal radian on a circle with 0-10 latitude distance away from the center of the typhoon;

let the typhoon center coordinate be (X, Y), radiusAnd r is the coordinate of n points with equal radian on the circle, namely D { (xi, yi), i ═ 1,2,3, ·, n }, and the coordinate of the x-th point is Qx (x)_x,y_x) Wherein x is_x＝X+r sin(x*360/n)，y_x＝Y+r cos(x*360/n)；

If the point is overlapped with the environmental field lattice point data, taking the environmental field lattice point data as the environmental wind full-wind-speed data of the point; if the point is not overlapped with the grid point data of the environment field, determining the full wind speed of the environment wind of the point by a three-dimensional bilinear interpolation method (U, V);

calculating the ambient wind full wind speed wind direction (rad) from the ambient wind full wind speed (U, V);

filtering the grid point data of the environmental wind field to obtain environmental wind low-pass wind speed (Ul, Vl), environmental wind high-pass wind speed (Uh, Vh), environmental wind low-pass wind direction (radl) and environmental wind high-pass wind direction (radh) of the environmental wind field in different time periods; the different time periods are periods corresponding to different frequencies during filtering.

5. The method according to claim 4, wherein the step of calculating the ambient wind full wind direction data (rad) from the ambient wind full wind speed data (U, V) comprises:

U>when the content is equal to 0, the content,

U<at the time of 0, the number of the first,

6. the method of claim 2, wherein the step 5 comprises:

respectively calculating correlation coefficients of the dx and the U, Uh and Ul with different weft distances and different levels in the same time sequence to generate a first correlation coefficient so as to represent the influence degree of the Ul and the Uh with different weft distances, different levels and different time periods on the movement of the typhoon in the east-west direction;

respectively calculating correlation coefficients of the dy and the V, the Vh and the Vl with different weft distances and different levels in the same time sequence to generate a second correlation number so as to generate the influence of the V with different weft distances and different levels, the Vl and the Vh with different weft distances and different levels and different time periods on the movement of the typhoon in the north-south direction;

and respectively carrying out correlation coefficient calculation on the dr with the same time sequence and the rad, the radh and the radl with different latitude and different levels to generate a third phase relation number so as to represent the influence degree of the environmental wind full wind direction, the environmental wind high wind direction and the environmental wind low wind direction on the overall movement of the typhoon at different latitude and different levels.

7. The method according to claim 6, wherein step 6 is specifically:

and determining the height in the convection layer influencing the movement of the typhoon, the latitude from the center of the typhoon and whether the type is the full wind speed or the low-pass component or the high-pass component according to the values of the first correlation coefficient, the second correlation coefficient and the third correlation coefficient.

8. An apparatus for predicting typhoon movement, comprising:

a first acquisition unit that acquires path data of a typhoon;

a first generation unit which generates typhoon data according to the path data of the typhoon;

the second acquisition unit is used for acquiring environmental site data consistent with the typhoon time sequence;

the second generation unit is used for generating environment wind data with different weft distances from the center of the typhoon and different levels of the whole troposphere according to the environment field lattice point data;

a third generation unit, configured to perform correlation calculation on the typhoon data and the environmental wind data, and generate a correlation coefficient between the typhoon data and the environmental wind data;

the selection unit is used for selecting the environmental wind influencing the movement of the typhoon according to the correlation coefficient;

and the prediction unit predicts the movement trend of the typhoon according to the selected environmental wind.

Technical Field

The invention relates to the field of typhoon prediction, in particular to a prediction method and a prediction device for typhoon movement.

Background

At present, typhoon prediction has an important influence on production and life, and therefore, how to improve the accuracy of typhoon prediction becomes a subject of attention.

Disclosure of Invention

The embodiment of the invention provides a typhoon movement prediction method and device, which can improve the accuracy of typhoon prediction.

A method of predicting typhoon movement, comprising:

step 1, obtaining path data of typhoon;

step 2, generating typhoon data according to the path data of the typhoon;

step 3, obtaining environmental field lattice point data consistent with the typhoon time sequence;

step 4, generating environmental wind data of different weft distances from the center of the typhoon and different levels of the whole troposphere according to the environmental field lattice point data;

step 5, carrying out correlation calculation on the typhoon data and the environmental wind data to generate a correlation coefficient between the typhoon data and the environmental wind data;

step 6, selecting environmental wind influencing the movement of the typhoon according to the correlation coefficient;

and 7, predicting the moving trend of the typhoon according to the selected environmental wind.

The typhoon data includes: the speed of movement (dx, dy) and the direction of movement (dr) of the typhoon;

the ambient wind data includes: the wind direction control method comprises the following steps of (1) obtaining ambient wind full wind speed (U, V), ambient wind full wind direction (rad), ambient wind high-pass wind speed (Uh, Vh) of different time periods, ambient wind high-pass wind speed (radh) of different time periods, ambient wind low-pass wind speed (Ul, Vl) of different time periods and ambient wind low-pass wind speed (radl) of different time periods;

wherein, U is the component of the total wind speed of the environmental wind in the east-west direction, and V is the component of the total wind speed of the environmental wind in the north-south direction;

uh is the high-pass wind speed component of the environmental wind in the east-west direction, and Vh is the high-pass wind speed component of the environmental wind in the north-south direction;

ul is an environmental wind low-pass wind speed component in the east-west direction, and Vl is an environmental wind low-pass wind speed component in the north-south direction.

The step 2 comprises the following steps:

assuming that the position of the typhoon at the time T { ti, i ═ 1,2,3, ·, n } is L { (loni, lati), i ═ 1,2,3, ·, n }, the velocity vector of the typhoon at the time tx is Dx (Dx)_x,dy_x)；

Namely, the moving speed of the typhoon is D { (dxi, dyi), i { (1, 2,3, ·, n-1 };

the direction of the typhoon is described by a direction angle:

dx_i>when the content is equal to 0, the content,

dx_i<at the time of 0, the number of the first,

the step 4 comprises the following steps:

taking points with equal radian on a circle with 0-10 latitude distance away from the center of the typhoon;

assuming that the central coordinate of the typhoon is (X, Y) and the radius is r, the coordinates of n points with equal radian on the circle are D { (xi, yi), i ═ 1,2,3, ·, n }, and the coordinate of the X-th point is Qx (X) (X, Y)_x,y_x) Wherein x is_x＝X+rsin(x*360/n)，y_x＝Y+rcos(x*360/n)；

If the point is overlapped with the environmental field lattice point data, taking the environmental field lattice point data as the environmental wind full-wind-speed data of the point; if the point is not overlapped with the grid point data of the environment field, determining the full wind speed of the environment wind of the point by a three-dimensional bilinear interpolation method (U, V);

calculating the ambient wind full wind speed wind direction (rad) from the ambient wind full wind speed (U, V);

filtering the grid point data of the environmental wind field to obtain environmental wind low-pass wind speed (Ul, Vl), environmental wind high-pass wind speed (Uh, Vh), environmental wind low-pass wind direction (radl) and environmental wind high-pass wind direction (radh) of the environmental wind field in different time periods; the different time periods are periods corresponding to different frequencies during filtering.

Said step of calculating said ambient wind full wind direction data (rad) from said ambient wind full wind speed data (U, V) comprises:

U>when the content is equal to 0, the content,

U<at the time of 0, the number of the first,

the step 5 comprises the following steps:

respectively calculating correlation coefficients of the dx and the U, Uh and Ul with different weft distances and different levels in the same time sequence to generate a first correlation coefficient so as to represent the influence degree of the Ul and the Uh with different weft distances, different levels and different time periods on the movement of the typhoon in the east-west direction;

respectively calculating correlation coefficients of the dy and the V, the Vh and the Vl with different weft distances and different levels in the same time sequence to generate a second correlation number so as to generate the influence of the V with different weft distances and different levels, the Vl and the Vh with different weft distances and different levels and different time periods on the movement of the typhoon in the north-south direction;

and respectively carrying out correlation coefficient calculation on the dr with the same time sequence and the rad, the radh and the radl with different latitude and different levels to generate a third phase relation number so as to represent the influence degree of the environmental wind full wind direction, the environmental wind high wind direction and the environmental wind low wind direction on the overall movement of the typhoon at different latitude and different levels.

The step 6 specifically comprises the following steps:

and determining the height in the convection layer influencing the movement of the typhoon, the latitude from the center of the typhoon and whether the type is the full wind speed or the low-pass component or the high-pass component according to the values of the first correlation coefficient, the second correlation coefficient and the third correlation coefficient.

An apparatus for predicting typhoon movement, comprising:

a first acquisition unit that acquires path data of a typhoon;

a first generation unit which generates typhoon data according to the path data of the typhoon;

the second acquisition unit is used for acquiring environmental site data consistent with the typhoon time sequence;

the second generation unit is used for generating environment wind data with different weft distances from the center of the typhoon and different levels of the whole troposphere according to the environment field lattice point data;

a third generation unit, configured to perform correlation calculation on the typhoon data and the environmental wind data, and generate a correlation coefficient between the typhoon data and the environmental wind data;

the selection unit is used for selecting the environmental wind influencing the movement of the typhoon according to the correlation coefficient;

and the prediction unit predicts the movement trend of the typhoon according to the selected environmental wind.

According to the technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the invention, the typhoon data is generated according to the path data of the typhoon; generating environmental wind data of different latitude distances from the center of the typhoon and different levels of the whole troposphere according to the environmental field lattice point data consistent with the time sequence of the typhoon; and selecting the environmental wind influencing the movement of the typhoon according to the correlation coefficient between the typhoon data and the environmental wind data, thereby predicting the movement trend of the typhoon and improving the accuracy of prediction.

Additional aspects and advantages of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention.

Drawings

In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings needed to be used in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings based on these drawings without inventive labor.

FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a method for predicting typhoon movement according to the present invention;

fig. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating data processing in the method for predicting typhoon movement according to the application scenario of the present invention;

FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram illustrating correlation processing and comparison in the method for predicting typhoon movement according to the application scenario of the present invention;

FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of "TaoZhi" in the method for predicting typhoon movement according to the application scenario of the present invention;

FIG. 5 shows a method for predicting typhoon movement Q according to an application scenario of the present invention_x(x_x,y_x) A schematic diagram of (a);

fig. 6 is a schematic diagram of a three-dimensional bilinear interpolation method in the prediction method of typhoon movement according to the application scenario of the present invention;

fig. 7 is a schematic diagram of a butterworth filtering method in the prediction method of typhoon movement according to the application scenario of the present invention.

Detailed Description

Reference will now be made in detail to embodiments of the present invention, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings, wherein like reference numerals refer to the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar function throughout. The embodiments described below with reference to the accompanying drawings are illustrative only for the purpose of explaining the present invention, and are not to be construed as limiting the present invention.

For the convenience of understanding the embodiments of the present invention, the following description will be further explained by taking several specific embodiments as examples in conjunction with the drawings, and the embodiments are not to be construed as limiting the embodiments of the present invention.

As shown in fig. 1, a method for predicting typhoon movement according to the present invention includes:

step 1, obtaining path data of typhoon;

step 2, generating typhoon data according to the path data of the typhoon;

the typhoon data includes: the speed of movement (dx, dy) and the direction of movement (dr) of the typhoon;

the ambient wind data includes: the wind direction control method comprises the following steps of (1) obtaining ambient wind full wind speed (U, V), ambient wind full wind direction (rad), ambient wind high-pass wind speed (Uh, Vh) of different time periods, ambient wind high-pass wind speed (radh) of different time periods, ambient wind low-pass wind speed (Ul, Vl) of different time periods and ambient wind low-pass wind speed (radl) of different time periods;

wherein, U is the component of the total wind speed of the environmental wind in the east-west direction, and V is the component of the total wind speed of the environmental wind in the north-south direction;

uh is the high-pass wind speed component of the environmental wind in the east-west direction, and Vh is the high-pass wind speed component of the environmental wind in the north-south direction;

ul is an environmental wind low-pass wind speed component in the east-west direction, and Vl is an environmental wind low-pass wind speed component in the north-south direction.

The step 2 comprises the following steps:

assuming that the position of the typhoon at the time T { ti, i ═ 1,2,3, ·, n } is L { (loni, lati), i ═ 1,2,3, ·, n }, the velocity vector of the typhoon at the time tx is Dx (Dx)_x,dy_x)；

Namely the moving speed of the typhoon is D { (dx)_i,dy_i),i＝1,2,3,···,n-1}；

The direction of the typhoon is described by a direction angle:

dx_i>when the content is equal to 0, the content,

dx_i<at the time of 0, the number of the first,

step 3, obtaining environmental field lattice point data consistent with the typhoon time sequence;

step 4, generating environmental wind data of different weft distances from the center of the typhoon and different levels of the whole troposphere according to the environmental field lattice point data;

the step 4 comprises the following steps:

step 41, taking points with equal radian on a circle which is 0-10 latitude away from the center of the typhoon;

step 42, assuming that the central coordinate of the typhoon is (X, Y) and the radius is r, the coordinates of the n points with equal radian on the circle are D { (xi, yi), i ═ 1,2,3, ·, n }, and the coordinate of the X-th point is Qx (X)_x,y_x) Wherein x is_x＝X+rsin(x*360/n)，y_x＝Y+rcos(x*360/n)；

Step 43, if the sampling point is overlapped with the environmental field lattice point data, taking the environmental field lattice point data as the environmental wind full-wind-speed data of the sampling point; if the point is not overlapped with the grid point data of the environment field, determining the full wind speed of the environment wind of the point by a three-dimensional bilinear interpolation method (U, V);

the step of determining the full wind speed of the environmental wind of the taken point by a three-dimensional bilinear interpolation method comprises the following steps:

determining the wind speed (u) of the point P by three-dimensional bilinear interpolation method_p、v_p): the wind speed at known grid points Q11(x1, y1), Q12(x1, y2), Q21(x2, y1), Q22(x2, y2) in the three-dimensional bilinear interpolation method is W11(u11, v11), W12(u12, v12), W21(u21, v21), W22(u22, v22), and the wind speed at P point is (u11, v11), so that the wind speed at P point is (u12, v22)_p,v_p) Wherein

Different time periods: the periods corresponding to different frequencies during filtering are referred to, and taking high-pass filtering as an example, the different time periods refer to a plurality of periods from … … below 10 days, from 9 days, from 8 days to 2 days.

Step 44, calculating the ambient wind full wind speed (rad) according to the ambient wind full wind speed (U, V);

step 45, filtering the environmental field grid point data to obtain environmental wind low-pass wind speeds (Ul, Vl), environmental wind high-pass wind speeds (Uh, Vh), environmental wind low-pass wind directions (radl) and environmental wind high-pass wind directions (radh) of the environmental wind field in different time periods; the different time periods are periods corresponding to different frequencies during filtering.

Step 44 comprises:

U>when the content is equal to 0, the content,

U<at the time of 0, the number of the first,

step 5, carrying out correlation calculation on the typhoon data and the environmental wind data to generate a correlation coefficient between the typhoon data and the environmental wind data;

the step 5 comprises the following steps:

step 51, respectively calculating correlation coefficients of the dx and the U, Uh and Ul with different weft distances and different levels in the same time sequence to generate a first correlation coefficient so as to represent the influence degree of the Ul and the Uh with different weft distances, U with different levels, different weft distances, different levels and different time periods on the movement of the typhoon in the east-west direction;

step 52, respectively calculating correlation coefficients of the dy and the V, the Vh and the Vl with different weft distances and different levels in the same time sequence to generate a second correlation number so as to generate the influence of the V and the Vh with different weft distances and different levels and different time periods on the movement of the typhoon in the north-south direction;

and step 53, respectively calculating correlation coefficients of the dr with the same time sequence, the rad, the radh and the radl with different latitude and different levels to generate a third phase relation number so as to represent the influence degree of the environmental wind full wind direction, the environmental wind high wind direction and the environmental wind low wind direction on the overall movement of the typhoon.

Step 6, selecting environmental wind influencing the movement of the typhoon according to the correlation coefficient; the step 6 specifically comprises the following steps: and determining the height in the convection layer influencing the movement of the typhoon, the latitude from the center of the typhoon and whether the type is the full wind speed or the low-pass component or the high-pass component according to the values of the first correlation coefficient, the second correlation coefficient and the third correlation coefficient. That is, the parameter corresponding to the maximum correlation coefficient is selected.

And 7, predicting the moving trend of the typhoon according to the selected environmental wind.

In the embodiment of the invention, typhoon data are generated according to the path data of typhoon; generating environmental wind data of different latitude distances from the center of the typhoon and different levels of the whole troposphere according to the environmental field lattice point data consistent with the time sequence of the typhoon; and selecting the environmental wind influencing the movement of the typhoon according to the correlation coefficient between the typhoon data and the environmental wind data, thereby predicting the movement trend of the typhoon and improving the accuracy of prediction.

The following describes an application scenario of the present invention. Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating data processing in the method for predicting typhoon movement according to the application scenario of the present invention; FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram illustrating correlation processing and comparison in the method for predicting typhoon movement according to the application scenario of the present invention; FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of "TaoZhi" in the method for predicting typhoon movement according to the application scenario of the present invention; FIG. 5 shows a method for predicting typhoon movement Q according to an application scenario of the present invention_x(x_x,y_x) A schematic diagram of (a); fig. 6 is a schematic diagram of a three-dimensional bilinear interpolation method in the prediction method of typhoon movement according to the application scenario of the present invention; fig. 7 is a schematic diagram of a butterworth filtering method in the prediction method of typhoon movement according to the application scenario of the present invention. The following description is made in conjunction with the drawings.

1 data processing

1.1 typhoon path data

(1) And (4) estimating the moving speed of the typhoon.

Estimation method of typhoon vector moving speed (hereinafter, referred to as typhoon speed for short): suppose a typhoon is at T { T_iAnd the position of the moment i { (lon) is 1,2,3, · ·, n { (lon)_i,lat_i) I is 1,2,3, n, then t_xThe velocity vector of the typhoon at the moment can be approximated as D_x(dx_x,dy_x) Considering that the longitude distance becomes smaller as the latitude increases, itInI.e. the typhoon velocity can be approximated as D { (dx)_i,dy_i) I ═ 1,2,3, ·, n-1 }. Take No. 8 Tai feng "taozhi" in 2001 as an example as shown in FIG. 4.

(2) Estimation of typhoon moving direction (dr):

suppose that the velocity of the typhoon estimated by the above method is D { (dx)_i,dy_i) I 1,2,3, n-1, the direction of typhoon movement can be described by the direction angle:

dx_i>when the content is equal to 0, the content,

dx_i<at the time of 0, the number of the first,

1.2 environmental site (U, V) data

1000hPa-100hPa environmental wind field data (U, V format) of 3 months before and after the typhoon appearing period are prepared.

(1) Taking points with equal radian on a circle with 0-10 latitude (interval 1 latitude) from the center of the typhoon (representing the environmental wind near the typhoon)

The point taking method of the environmental wind field comprises the following steps: as shown in FIG. 5, assuming that the typhoon center coordinates are (X, Y) and the radius is r, the coordinates of n points with equal radian on the circle are D { (X)_i,y_i) I-1, 2,3, n, the x-th point having the coordinate Q_x(x_x,y_x) Wherein x is_x＝X+rsin(x*360/n)，y_x＝Y+rcos(x*360/n)。

As shown in FIG. 6, the three-dimensional bilinear interpolation method determines the wind speed at the point (grid point wind speed u)_p、 v_p): known lattice point Q₁₁(x₁,y₁)、Q₁₂(x₁,y₂)、Q₂₁(x₂,y₁)、Q₂₂(x₂,y₂) At a wind speed of W₁₁(u₁₁,v₁₁)、W₁₂(u₁₂,v₁₂)、W₂₁(u₂₁,v₂₁)、W₂₂(u₂₂,v₂₂) Then the wind speed at P (x, y) point is W_p(u_p,v_p) Wherein

And (4) calculating the total wind direction data (rad) of the environmental wind by the same calculation method as the typhoon direction.

(2) Filtering the environmental wind field data

The butterworth filtering method is shown in fig. 7.

After the processing, the low-pass component data (Ul, Vl) and the high-pass component data (Uh, Vh) of the environmental wind, the low-pass component angle (radl) of the environmental wind and the high-pass component angle (radh) of the environmental wind in different time periods of the environmental wind field can be obtained.

The second step is that:

the method for calculating the correlation coefficient of the typhoon moving speed and the environmental wind field comprises the following steps:

correlation coefficient: x { X }_iI ═ 1,2,3, ·, n } and Y { Y ·_iCorrelation coefficient of 1,2,3, nWherein Cov (X, Y) is the covariance of X and Y, Var [ X ]]Variance of X, Var [ Y ]]Is the variance of Y.

3 Shift Rate correlation coefficient calculation

Calculating the correlation coefficient of dx and U (U, Uh and Ul at different weft pitches and different levels) of the same time sequence, judging whether the full wind speed or the low-pass or high-pass wind speed affects the movement of the typhoon in the east-west direction by picking the maximum value of the correlation coefficient, judging the correlation coefficient calculation of dy and V (V, Vh and Vl at different weft pitches and different levels) affecting the dx at different weft pitches and different levels, judging whether the full wind speed or the low-pass or high-pass wind speed affects the movement of the typhoon in the north-south direction by picking the maximum value of the correlation coefficient, and judging the influence of V wind at different weft pitches and different levels on dy.

4 moving correlation coefficient calculation

Calculating the correlation coefficient of dr and rad (different weft distances, rads at different levels, radh and radl) of the same time sequence.

Whether the movement of the typhoon in the whole direction is influenced by the full wind speed or the low-pass or high-pass wind speed is judged by picking the maximum value of the correlation coefficient, and the influence of the wind directions with different latitude distances and different levels on the movement of the typhoon is judged

5 conclusion

(1) Whether the environmental wind influencing the movement of the typhoon is full wind speed or low-pass wind speed or high-pass wind speed;

(2) the influence of the environmental wind on which weft distance from the center of the typhoon is larger;

(3) which level of the ambient wind within the convection layer has a greater impact.

6. According to the algorithm, the future movement and the speed of the typhoon can be determined to be mainly influenced by which wind field in the environmental field, and the movement of the typhoon can be predicted according to the result

The present invention also provides a typhoon movement prediction apparatus, comprising:

a first acquisition unit that acquires path data of a typhoon;

a first generation unit which generates typhoon data according to the path data of the typhoon;

the second acquisition unit is used for acquiring environmental site data consistent with the typhoon time sequence;

the second generation unit is used for generating environment wind data with different weft distances from the center of the typhoon and different levels of the whole troposphere according to the environment field lattice point data;

a third generation unit, configured to perform correlation calculation on the typhoon data and the environmental wind data, and generate a correlation coefficient between the typhoon data and the environmental wind data;

the selection unit is used for selecting the environmental wind influencing the movement of the typhoon according to the correlation coefficient;

and the prediction unit predicts the movement trend of the typhoon according to the selected environmental wind.

The above description is only for the preferred embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any changes or substitutions that can be easily conceived by those skilled in the art within the technical scope of the present invention are included in the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.