阅读说明：本技术 估计技术系统的疲劳寿命的系统、装置和方法 (System, device and method for estimating the fatigue life of a technical system ) 是由 塞巴斯蒂安·施米茨 塞莎·贡达瓦拉普 苏哈斯·卡日卡达苏雷什 于 2019-08-23 设计创作，主要内容包括：公开了估计技术系统的疲劳寿命的方法、装置和系统。该方法包括基于与至少一个部件相关联的至少一个损伤场景和材料特性散布数据来计算技术系统的至少一个部件的寿命概率分布。此外,该方法包括通过结合针对至少一个部件的多个损伤场景和损伤累积规则来确定至少一个部件的时间损伤累积(D-t)。此外,该方法包括针对至少一个部件中的多个区域中的每个区域确定空间损伤累积(D-x)和累积D-t。该方法还包括基于对至少一个损伤场景的模拟和至少一个损伤场景下的条件概率来确定包括针对至少一个部件的累积D-t和D-x的积分的积分损伤。通过基于总概率定律结合技术系统中的多个部件的积分损伤和预测损伤场景确定技术系统的疲劳故障概率,来估计技术系统的疲劳寿命。(Methods, apparatus and systems for estimating fatigue life of a technical system are disclosed. The method includes calculating a lifetime probability distribution of at least one component of the technical system based on at least one damage scenario and material property spread data associated with the at least one component. Furthermore, the method comprises determining a temporal damage accumulation (D _ t) of the at least one component by combining the plurality of damage scenarios for the at least one component and the damage accumulation rule. Further, the method includes determining a spatial damage accumulation (D _ x) and an accumulation D _ t for each of a plurality of regions in the at least one component. The method also includes determining an integrated damage comprising an integration of the accumulated D _ t and D _ x for the at least one component based on the simulation of the at least one damage scenario and the conditional probability under the at least one damage scenario. The fatigue life of a technical system is estimated by determining the probability of a fatigue failure of the technical system based on the law of total probability in combination with the integrated damage and predicted damage scenario of a plurality of components in the technical system.)

1. A method for estimating fatigue life of a technical system, wherein the technical system comprises a plurality of components, the plurality of components comprising at least one component, the method comprising:

calculating a lifetime probability distribution for the at least one component based on at least one damage scenario and material property spread data associated with the at least one component;

determining a temporal damage accumulation (D _ t) of the at least one component by combining a plurality of damage scenarios of the at least one component and a damage accumulation rule;

determining a spatial damage accumulation (D _ x) and an accumulation D _ t for each of a plurality of regions in the at least one component;

determining an integrated damage comprising an integral of the accumulated D _ t and D _ x of the at least one component based on the simulation of the at least one damage scenario and the conditional probability for the at least one damage scenario; and

estimating the fatigue life of the technical system by determining a probability of fatigue failure of the technical system based on a total probability law in combination with the integrated damage and predicted damage scenarios of the plurality of components.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the temporal impairment accumulation is impairment accumulation with respect to a temporal dimension, and wherein the impairment accumulation rules comprise rules associated with physical properties and operational profiles of the technical system.

3. The method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the spatial impairment accumulation is based on a probability distribution over time with respect to spatial impairment events and an impairment accumulation over spatial dimensions of the at least one impairment scene, and

wherein the spatial damage event is an event associated with each of the plurality of regions in the at least one component that causes damage to the at least one component.

4. The method of any preceding claim, wherein the accumulated D _ t is an integral of the D _ t of each of the plurality of zones over a number of cycles (n) of cyclic load on the at least one component.

5. The method according to any of the preceding claims, wherein estimating the fatigue life of the technical system comprises:

estimating a component fatigue life of the at least one component by determining a component failure probability based on the law of total probability in combination with an integration of the accumulated D _ t and D _ x of the at least one component.

6. The method according to any of the preceding claims, wherein the probability of fatigue failure of the technical system is determined by:

applying the total probability law to the predicted damage scenario and to the component failure probability based on the following formula,

wherein, F^totalIs the fatigue failure probability of said technical system, q represents a numerical stochastic simulation of said at least one damage scenario, F (n) [ q ]]Is a component failure under numerical stochastic simulation of the at least one damage scenarioProbability, and P [ q ]]Is the probability of numerically random modeling q of the at least one damage scenario.

7. The method according to claim 6, wherein the component failure probability under numerical stochastic simulation (F (n) q) of the at least one damage scenario is determined as:

wherein n is the number of cycles of the cyclic load, and wherein

Where η (n) is a function of the cycles for D _ x and D _ t, D (n, x) is a function of D _ t, and m is a material parameter of the at least one component having surface A.

8. The method of claim 7, wherein D (n, x) is determined as:

wherein q is_j(n, x) is a contribution of the at least one damage scenario (j) for each of the plurality of regions (x) on the at least one component up to a cycle n of the cyclic load, where n is_jdet(x) The fatigue crack initiation time under the at least one damage scenario (j) is determined.

9. The method of any of the preceding claims, wherein the technical system is at least one blade of a turbomachine, wherein the at least one blade comprises a Thermal Barrier Coating (TBC) and a blade base material, wherein the method estimates a blade fatigue life of the at least one blade based on a TBC failure probability, and wherein the TBC failure probability is a failure probability of the TBC.

10. The method of claim 9, further comprising: calculating a blade life probability distribution of the blade base material based on material property spread data of the blade base material and at least one TBC damage scenario, wherein the at least one TBC damage scenario is one of a plurality of TBC conditions associated with one of a presence and an absence of a TBC over a plurality of blade areas of the blade base material;

determining a temporal damage accumulation (D _ t) of the blade base material by combining the plurality of TBC damage scenarios and damage accumulation rules of the at least one blade;

determining a spatial damage accumulation (D _ x) of the plurality of blade regions for the at least one TBC damage scenario by combining the integrated D _ t;

integrating Dx of the blade base material based on numerical random simulation and conditional probability of the at least one TBC damage scenario;

estimating the fatigue life of the at least one blade by determining a probability of fatigue failure of the at least one blade based on the law of probability of total.

11. The method of claim 10, wherein the conditional probability is determined by:

determining a TBC life of the TBC based on the TBC failure probability, wherein the TBC failure probability is determined based on TBC material property spread data, physical properties, and an operational profile of the at least one blade;

determining an instantaneous cycle number based on the TBC lifetime for the at least one TBC damage scenario; and

determining a conditional damage under the at least one TBC damage scenario.

12. The method of claim 9, further comprising: generating a blade model of the at least one blade based on the blade geometry, the physical properties and the operational profile of the at least one blade; and

simulating the at least one TBC damage scenario on the blade model.

13. The method of any preceding claim, wherein the technical system is a rotor of a turbomachine, wherein the rotor comprises a plurality of rotor regions, wherein the method estimates a rotor fatigue life of the rotor based on a probability of failure for a plurality of rotor damage scenarios, and wherein the rotor damage scenarios are due to physical properties and an operational profile of the rotor.

14. The method of claim 13, further comprising:

determining a temporal damage accumulation (D _ t) for each of the plurality of rotor regions by combining the plurality of rotor damage scenarios and a damage accumulation rule for the rotor;

determining a spatial damage accumulation (D _ x) for the plurality of rotor regions of the plurality of rotor damage scenarios by determining an accumulation D _ t for each of the plurality of rotor regions with respect to a number of cycles (n), where n is a number of times the cyclic load is exerted on the rotor;

integrating D _ x of the rotor based on a fatigue failure probability for each of the plurality of rotor damage scenarios; and

estimating the fatigue life of the rotor by determining a probability of failure of the rotor based on D _ x and D _ t.

15. An apparatus for estimating the fatigue life of a technical system subjected to at least one cyclic load, wherein the technical system comprises a plurality of components including at least one component, the apparatus comprising:

at least one processor; and

a storage device communicatively coupled to the at least one processor, the storage device comprising:

a material module that calculates a lifetime probability distribution for the at least one component based on at least one damage scenario and material property spread data associated with the at least one component;

a time module determining a temporal damage accumulation (D _ t) of the at least one component by combining a plurality of damage scenarios of the at least one component and a damage accumulation rule;

a spatial module that determines a spatial impairment accumulation (D _ x) and an accumulation D _ t for each of a plurality of regions in the at least one component;

an impairment module that determines an integrated impairment comprising an integral of accumulated D _ t and D _ x of the at least one component based on a simulation of the at least one impairment scene and a conditional probability of the at least one impairment scene; and

a life module that estimates a fatigue life of a technology system by determining a probability of fatigue failure of the technology system based on a total probability law in combination with the integrated damage of the plurality of components.

16. The apparatus of claim 15, communicatively coupled to the technical system, whereby the life of the technical system is estimated at any instant based on the fatigue life.

17. A system for a technical plant, the technical plant comprising a plurality of technical systems, each technical system being subjected to cyclic loading comprising at least one component, the system comprising:

a server operable on one of a cloud computing platform and an edge computing platform;

a network interface communicatively coupled to the server;

apparatus for each said technical system, said apparatus comprising:

a material module that calculates a lifetime probability distribution for the at least one component based on at least one damage scenario and material property spread data associated with the at least one component;

a time module for determining a temporal damage accumulation (D _ t) of the at least one component by combining a plurality of damage scenarios of the at least one component and a damage accumulation rule;

a spatial module that determines a spatial impairment accumulation (D _ x) and an accumulation D _ t for each of a plurality of regions in the at least one component;

an impairment module that determines an integrated impairment comprising an integral of accumulated D _ t and D _ x of the at least one component based on a simulation of the at least one impairment scene and a conditional probability of the at least one impairment scene; and

a lifetime module that estimates a fatigue life of the technical system by determining a probability of fatigue failure of the technical system based on a total probability law in combination with integrated damage of a plurality of components in each of the technical systems.

18. The system of claim 17, wherein the server comprises:

a processing unit communicatively coupled to the communication unit; and

a storage unit communicatively coupled to the processing unit and the communication unit, the storage unit including the material module, the time module, the space module, the damage module, and the lifetime module.

19. The system of claim 17 or 18, wherein the system comprises:

a communication unit capable of communicating with the server; and

a database communicatively coupled to the server, the database comprising:

a model generator module which generates a system model of the technical system on the basis of a system geometry of the technical system and boundary conditions, wherein the system geometry comprises a component geometry associated with a component of the technical system and a material geometry associated with the at least one component, wherein the boundary conditions comprise physical property-based boundary conditions of the technical system.

Background

During operation, technical systems such as gas turbine components, electric motors, large drives are subjected to high thermal and mechanical loads. Under cyclic loading, the materials of the technical system may suffer from fatigue (e.g., low cycle fatigue [ LCF ], high cycle fatigue [ HCF ], thermo-mechanical fatigue [ TMF ]).

Furthermore, the local spread of material properties until crack initiation under the same load and boundary conditions is not the same for a technical system. This may have a significant effect on the time before crack initiation. For example, spallation of a Thermal Barrier Coating (TBC) on a turbine blade may affect LCF failure of the blade. Thus, fatigue in the technical system may limit the service life of the technical system.

Disclosure of Invention

This summary is provided to introduce a selection of concepts in a simplified form that are further disclosed in the detailed description of the invention. This summary is not intended to identify key or essential inventive concepts of the claimed subject matter, nor is it intended to be used to determine the scope of the claimed subject matter.

According to an aspect of the invention, a computer-implemented method for estimating fatigue life of a technical system is provided. The technical system is subjected to cyclic loading. The technical system comprises a plurality of components. The method is described with respect to one of a plurality of components. The method includes calculating a lifetime probability distribution for the component based on a damage scenario and material property spread data associated with the component. The lifetime probability distribution refers to the probability of failure of the lifetime number, e.g., the number of cycles.

The method further comprises determining a temporal damage accumulation (D _ t) of the component by combining the plurality of damage scenarios for the component and a damage accumulation rule. Further, the method includes determining a spatial damage accumulation (D _ x) and an accumulation D _ t for each of a plurality of regions in the component. Further, the method includes determining an integrated damage including an integral of the accumulated D _ t and D _ x for the component based on the simulation of the damage scenario and the conditional probability under the damage scenario. The method comprises estimating the fatigue life of the technical system by determining the probability of a fatigue failure of the technical system based on the law of total probability in combination with the integrated damage and predicted damage scenario of the plurality of components.

According to another aspect of the invention, an apparatus for estimating the fatigue life of a technical system subjected to cyclic loading is provided. The technical system comprises a plurality of components. The apparatus includes at least one processor and a storage device communicatively coupled to the at least one processor. The storage device includes a material module that calculates a lifetime probability distribution for the component based on a damage scenario and material property spread data associated with the component. The storage device also includes a time module that determines a temporal damage accumulation (D _ t) for the component by combining a plurality of damage scenarios for the component and a damage accumulation rule. The storage device includes a space module that determines a spatial damage accumulation (D _ x) and an accumulation D _ t for each of a plurality of regions in the component. Further, the storage device includes an impairment module that determines an integrated impairment comprising an integral of the accumulated D _ t and D _ x for the at least one component based on the simulation of the impairment scene and the conditional probability of the impairment scene. Furthermore, the storage device comprises a lifetime module that estimates a fatigue lifetime of the technical system by determining a probability of a fatigue failure of the technical system based on the law of total probability in combination with an integrated damage of the plurality of components.

According to yet another aspect of the invention, a system for a technical plant is provided. The technical plant comprises a plurality of technical systems, each of which is subjected to cyclic loads. The technical systems each comprise components. The system includes a server operable on one of a cloud computing platform and an edge computing platform. The system also includes a network interface communicatively coupled to the server and means for each technical system. The device is able to estimate the fatigue life of each technical system.

The invention will be further described hereinafter with reference to the illustrated embodiments shown in the drawings, in which:

FIG. 1 illustrates a computer-implemented method for estimating fatigue life of a technical system according to the present invention;

FIG. 2 is a block diagram of an apparatus for estimating fatigue life of a technical system according to the present invention;

FIG. 3 is a block diagram of a system for a technical plant according to the present invention;

FIG. 4 illustrates a first case of damage accumulation of a material over time in a technical system according to the invention;

fig. 5 shows a second case of spatial damage accumulation for each region of material in the technical system as used in fig. 4;

FIG. 6 illustrates a third case of damage accumulation of material over time and space in the technical system used in FIG. 4;

7A-7D illustrate spatial damage accumulation on a turbine blade according to the present invention;

FIG. 8 illustrates a method for estimating blade fatigue life for the turbine blade in FIGS. 7A-7D; and

fig. 9A and 9B show the application of the method of fig. 1 to a welded structure according to the invention.