Dam dangerous case emergency early warning system
阅读说明：本技术 一种堤坝险情应急预警系统 (Dam dangerous case emergency early warning system ) 是由 苑希民 于 2020-06-29 设计创作，主要内容包括：本发明公开一种堤坝险情应急预警系统,包括前端传感器采集层；数据集成传输层；数据处理层,包括堤坝安全监测智能管理系统和数据库,用于对监测参数的实时数据分析处理以及智能诊断,判断各类监测参数是否达到预警阈值,并在达到预警阈值时联动预警和/或专家诊断形成应急预案；数据发布层,用于对达到预警阈值的各类监测结果以预警信息的方式发布到指定的接收终端上进行展示。本发明提供的堤防险工防洪应急预警系统,预警可靠性高,具备优良监测性能的同时,具有可靠度较高的分析和预警功能,并且耐久性好,可以持久发挥效益；非常适用堤防险工防洪安全监测和预警。(The invention discloses a dam dangerous case emergency early warning system which comprises a front-end sensor acquisition layer; a data integration transmission layer; the data processing layer comprises a dam safety monitoring intelligent management system and a database and is used for analyzing and processing real-time data of monitoring parameters and intelligently diagnosing the monitoring parameters, judging whether various monitoring parameters reach an early warning threshold value or not, and linking early warning and/or expert diagnosis to form an emergency plan when the monitoring parameters reach the early warning threshold value; and the data distribution layer is used for distributing various monitoring results reaching the early warning threshold value to a specified receiving terminal in an early warning information mode for displaying. The emergency early warning system for flood control of the dike emergency engineering, provided by the invention, has high early warning reliability, excellent monitoring performance, higher reliability of analysis and early warning functions, good durability and capability of giving lasting benefits; is very suitable for flood control safety monitoring and early warning of dikes.)
1. A dam emergency early warning system for dangerous situations is characterized by comprising:
the front-end sensor acquisition layer is used for acquiring real-time data of each monitoring parameter and comprises a soil body displacement meter for acquiring surface displacement information of a slope surface on the back water side of a standard dike, a single-point displacement meter for acquiring sedimentation displacement information of the surface of a river regulation project, an osmometer for acquiring saturation line information of a monitoring point, a radar water level meter for acquiring water level change information of the monitoring point, a GNSS receiver for acquiring horizontal displacement and sedimentation change information of a dam test section and a camera for acquiring a real-time video image of the monitoring point;
the data integration transmission layer is used for acquiring the real-time data and transmitting the real-time data to the data processing layer;
the data processing layer comprises a dam safety monitoring intelligent management system and a database and is used for analyzing, processing and intelligently diagnosing the real-time data of the monitoring parameters, judging whether various monitoring parameters reach an early warning threshold value or not, and linking early warning and/or expert diagnosis to form an emergency plan when the monitoring parameters reach the early warning threshold value;
the flood water level, the wetting line, the vertical displacement, the horizontal displacement, the displacement of the backwater slope and the fluctuation water rate are used as quantitative indexes for the safety monitoring and early warning of the embankment project; analyzing the functional relation among independent variable safety coefficient and dependent variable water level, water rising and water falling rate, average monitoring value of pore water pressure of a dike body, average monitoring value of pore water of a dike base, x and y displacement of the dike waterside side dike top and displacement of a backwater slope body by the quantitative index through a multivariate linear fitting method to obtain dike danger comprehensive evaluation formulas of different distribution sections, and calculating single index threshold values of corresponding sections according to the dike danger comprehensive evaluation formulas so as to judge whether the dike is in a safe state;
and the data distribution layer is used for distributing various monitoring results reaching the early warning threshold value to a specified receiving terminal in an early warning information mode for displaying.
2. The dam emergency pre-warning system for dangerous situations according to claim 1, wherein, when the threshold value of the safety pre-warning index of the flood level of the dike is 8.33m and the safety coefficient of the stable seepage of the dike is 1.15, the seepage line is a seepage safety pre-warning value; the vertical displacement safety early warning value is 12mm, and the vertical deformation rate warning value is 8 mm/d; the horizontal displacement safety early warning value is 50mm, and the horizontal deformation rate warning value is 10 mm/d; the displacement safety early warning value of the backwater slope is 21mm, and the horizontal deformation rate warning value is 10 mm/d.
3. The dam emergency alert system according to claim 1, wherein the real-time data analysis processing of the monitoring parameters comprises:
analyzing flood water level monitoring information, wherein the flood water level monitoring information comprises water level process analysis, water level statistical analysis and water level trend analysis, and real-time reporting and early warning of the water level and the water level trend of the dike emergency worker through analysis; the water level statistical analysis comprises the analysis of the maximum value and the minimum value of the water level over the years and the average values of different statistical time periods;
analyzing the monitoring information of the slope surface displacement, wherein the analysis comprises slope surface displacement process analysis, slope surface displacement statistical analysis and trend analysis, and real-time reporting and early warning are carried out on the slope surface displacement of the dike danger worker through analysis; the slope surface displacement statistical analysis comprises analysis of the maximum value and the minimum value of the slope surface displacement over the years and different statistical time period mean values;
horizontal displacement monitoring information analysis, which comprises horizontal displacement process analysis, horizontal displacement statistical analysis and trend analysis, and real-time reporting and early warning of horizontal displacement and displacement trend of the dike emergency worker through analysis;
analyzing settlement monitoring information, wherein the analysis comprises settlement process analysis, settlement statistical analysis and settlement trend analysis, and real-time reporting and early warning are carried out on settlement of the dike danger work and the settlement trend through analysis;
analyzing the monitoring information of the infiltration line, wherein the analysis comprises the process analysis of the infiltration line and the trend analysis of the infiltration line of the monitoring section, and the real-time report and early warning are carried out on the infiltration line of the dike danger work and the next development trend of the infiltration line through analysis;
after the analysis of the monitoring information is completed, the slope surface displacement, the horizontal displacement, the sedimentation and the infiltration line are further subjected to correlation analysis with the water level.
4. The dam emergency early warning system according to claim 1, wherein the single point displacement meter is buried by drilling and guiding holes, the diameter of the drilled hole is 110mm, the drilled hole is vertical, the depth of the drilled hole is the same as the total length of the single point displacement meter, the anchor head and the measuring rod are connected by using a constant diameter joint, the anchor head and the measuring rod are stopped from being put in when the top of the measuring rod is 200mm higher than the hole opening, lengthening the measuring rod by using an equal-diameter joint, then placing downwards until the anchor head is placed at the bottom of the hole, installing a flange settling plate 10-20cm below the foundation surface, installing a single-point displacement meter, the transmission cable is sheathed with phi 20PVC steel wire corrugated pipes for protection, the head ends of the steel wire corrugated pipes are inserted under the flange settlement plate, and digging a wiring groove with the depth of 1m and the width of 0.5m, introducing the wiring groove into the information acquisition box, filling the lower end of the wiring groove with coarse sand with the depth of 0.7m, filling the upper end of the wiring groove with concrete with the depth of 0.3 m, and setting a zero point after embedding for 2-3 days and completing hole shrinkage.
5. The dam emergency warning system according to claim 1, wherein the osmometer is installed as follows:
(1) determining the mounting hole position of the osmometer;
(2) leveling the field before construction so as to facilitate the installation and the displacement of a drilling machine, and taking hardening and reinforcing measures for a loose field which is not beneficial to the operation of a construction machine;
(3) the aperture diameter of the drilled hole is 110mm, the deviation of the hole position is not more than 10cm, and the depth of the hole is 15-30cm below the preset position of the osmometer;
(4) after drilling is finished, before the osmometer is buried, carrying out preliminary inspection and calibration on the osmometer, soaking the permeable stone, filling water into a cavity between the permeable stone and the diaphragm, then sinking the osmometer to the bottom of the drill hole by using a cable to measure the actual depth, carrying out thermal equilibrium on the osmometer for 15-20 minutes, recording the reading of the liquid level by using a reading instrument, then lifting the osmometer by a known height, recording the reading, calculating the coefficient, giving out the change of the pressure and the reading, and finally comparing the change with the median line of the calibration table; each osmometer obtains a zero reading, namely an initial reading, and the zero reading is used for post-processing data;
(5) after the osmometer is checked and determined to be normal, the osmometer starts to be installed; during installation, the bottom of the drilled hole is backfilled with fine sand to 15cm below the end of the osmometer, and the osmometer is placed; wherein, the osmometer is sealed in a sand bag; soaking sand in water, putting the sand in place, putting the sand around the osmometer, and putting the sand 15cm above the osmometer;
(6) drilling and sealing: when the sand reaches the catchment area, the hole is sealed, the alternate layers are backfilled with bentonite balls and a proper amount of sand for about 25cm, and then the alternate layers are backfilled with ordinary soil.
6. The dam emergency early warning system for dangerous situations according to claim 1, wherein when the radar level gauge is installed, a diameter vertical rod is established on the side of the monitored section adjacent to the river, a length steel pipe is welded to the top end of the vertical rod, and one end of the radar level gauge loaded extends to the river or a drainage ditch; the axis of the radar water level gauge is vertical to the water surface; the radar water level gauge is connected with a 4G transmission module in the data acquisition box through a data transmission cable for data acquisition and transmission.
7. The dam emergency pre-warning system for dangerous situations according to claim 1, wherein the installation upright of the camera is shared with the upright of the radar level gauge, and the data transmission module of the camera is shared with the 4G transmission module of the radar level gauge.
8. The dam emergency early warning system according to claim 1, wherein the soil displacement meter is installed as follows:
after 3 sets of measuring rods and PVC protection pipes are connected, connecting a tail end connecting pipe with a pipe joint for the PVC protection pipe to be connected, comparing the required length, and then cutting the required length; during installation, adding one more measuring rod to the last measuring rod in advance, and finally arranging 3 sets of soil displacement meters which are well installed and tested in a 5m standard dike backwater side groove, and backfilling and covering; and leveling the uneven part with sand again in the covering process, wherein the thickness of artificial backfill is not less than 30cm, and tamping is used after backfill.
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of monitoring and emergency early warning, in particular to a dam dangerous case emergency early warning system.
Background
At present, hidden troubles in dikes and single detection, detection and monitoring technologies are all outstanding, which threatens the safety of flood control and protection projects in the river basin, flood control project construction carried out worldwide at present forms massive bank protection projects including standardized dikes, dam stacks, wave walls and the like, but the traditional project management mode and monitoring technology can not completely meet the requirements of project safety management, and flood control safety networking monitoring and early warning equipment and technology of a large number of dikes in the world are almost blank.
Therefore, the advanced information acquisition, processing, analysis and release technologies of modern computers are combined, and the necessity and the urgency for developing the construction of a dam safety monitoring and early warning system are realized.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the problems, and provides a dam dangerous case emergency early warning system which can realize monitoring and early warning of various parameters of a dike dangerous worker, can realize threshold value configuration of various monitoring elements influencing the generation of a dangerous case through dangerous case early warning threshold value configuration, and finally realizes the reliability and safety of the dike dangerous worker early warning.
The technical scheme adopted for realizing the purpose of the invention is as follows:
a dam emergency early warning system for dangerous situations comprises:
the front-end sensor acquisition layer is used for acquiring real-time data of each monitoring parameter and comprises a soil body displacement meter for acquiring surface displacement information of a slope surface on the back water side of a standard dike, a single-point displacement meter for acquiring sedimentation displacement information of the surface of a river regulation project, an osmometer for acquiring saturation line information of a monitoring point, a radar water level meter for acquiring water level change information of the monitoring point, a GNSS receiver for acquiring horizontal displacement and sedimentation change information of a dam test section and a camera for acquiring a real-time video image of the monitoring point;
the data integration transmission layer is used for acquiring the real-time data and transmitting the real-time data to the data processing layer;
the data processing layer comprises a dam safety monitoring intelligent management system and a database and is used for analyzing, processing and intelligently diagnosing the real-time data of the monitoring parameters, judging whether various monitoring parameters reach an early warning threshold value or not, and linking early warning and/or expert diagnosis to form an emergency plan when the monitoring parameters reach the early warning threshold value;
the flood water level, the wetting line, the vertical displacement, the horizontal displacement, the displacement of the backwater slope and the fluctuation water rate are used as quantitative indexes for the safety monitoring and early warning of the embankment project; analyzing the functional relation among independent variable safety coefficient and dependent variable water level, water rising and water falling rate, average monitoring value of pore water pressure of a dike body, average monitoring value of pore water of a dike base, x and y displacement of the dike waterside side dike top and displacement of a backwater slope body by the quantitative index through a multivariate linear fitting method to obtain dike danger comprehensive evaluation formulas of different distribution sections, and calculating single index threshold values of corresponding sections according to the dike danger comprehensive evaluation formulas so as to judge whether the dike is in a safe state;
and the data distribution layer is used for distributing various monitoring results reaching the early warning threshold value to a specified receiving terminal in an early warning information mode for displaying.
Wherein, when the threshold value of the safety early warning index of the flood level of the dike is 8.33m and the stable safety coefficient of the seepage of the dike is 1.15, the infiltration line is a seepage safety early warning value; the vertical displacement safety early warning value is 12mm, and the vertical deformation rate warning value is 8 mm/d; the horizontal displacement safety early warning value is 50mm, and the horizontal deformation rate warning value is 10 mm/d; the displacement safety early warning value of the backwater slope is 21mm, and the horizontal deformation rate warning value is 10 mm/d.
Wherein, the real-time data analysis processing of the monitoring parameters comprises:
analyzing flood water level monitoring information, wherein the flood water level monitoring information comprises water level process analysis, water level statistical analysis and water level trend analysis, and real-time reporting and early warning of the water level and the water level trend of the dike emergency worker through analysis; the water level statistical analysis comprises the analysis of the maximum value and the minimum value of the water level over the years and the average values of different statistical time periods;
analyzing the monitoring information of the slope surface displacement, wherein the analysis comprises slope surface displacement process analysis, slope surface displacement statistical analysis and trend analysis, and real-time reporting and early warning are carried out on the slope surface displacement of the dike danger worker through analysis; the slope surface displacement statistical analysis comprises analysis of the maximum value and the minimum value of the slope surface displacement over the years and different statistical time period mean values;
horizontal displacement monitoring information analysis, which comprises horizontal displacement process analysis, horizontal displacement statistical analysis and trend analysis, and real-time reporting and early warning of horizontal displacement and displacement trend of the dike emergency worker through analysis;
analyzing settlement monitoring information, wherein the analysis comprises settlement process analysis, settlement statistical analysis and settlement trend analysis, and real-time reporting and early warning are carried out on settlement of the dike danger work and the settlement trend through analysis;
analyzing the monitoring information of the infiltration line, wherein the analysis comprises the process analysis of the infiltration line and the trend analysis of the infiltration line of the monitoring section, and the real-time report and early warning are carried out on the infiltration line of the dike danger work and the next development trend of the infiltration line through analysis;
after the analysis of the monitoring information is completed, the slope surface displacement, the horizontal displacement, the sedimentation and the infiltration line are further subjected to correlation analysis with the water level.
The single-point displacement meter is embedded by drilling and leading holes, the hole diameter of each drilling hole is 110mm, the drilling holes are vertical, the hole depth is consistent with the total length of the single-point displacement meter, an isometric joint is used for connecting an anchor head and a measuring rod, the top of a rod to be measured stops being put when the top is 200mm higher than the hole opening, the measuring rod is lengthened by the isometric joint, the anchor head is placed downwards until the anchor head is put to the bottom of the hole, a flange settlement plate is arranged 10-20cm below the foundation surface, after the single-point displacement meter is arranged, a transmission cable is sleeved with a phi 20PVC steel wire corrugated pipe for protection, the head end of the steel wire corrugated pipe is inserted below the flange settlement plate, a wiring groove with the depth of 1m and the width of 0.5m is dug and is introduced into an information acquisition box, the lower end of the wiring groove is filled with coarse sand with the depth of 0.7m, the zero point of 0.3.
The mounting method of the osmometer comprises the following steps:
(1) determining the mounting hole position of the osmometer;
(2) leveling the field before construction so as to facilitate the installation and the displacement of a drilling machine, and taking hardening and reinforcing measures for a loose field which is not beneficial to the operation of a construction machine;
(3) the aperture diameter of the drilled hole is 110mm, the deviation of the hole position is not more than 10cm, and the depth of the hole is 15-30cm below the preset position of the osmometer;
(4) after drilling is finished, before the osmometer is buried, carrying out preliminary inspection and calibration on the osmometer, soaking the permeable stone, filling water into a cavity between the permeable stone and the diaphragm, then sinking the osmometer to the bottom of the drill hole by using a cable to measure the actual depth, carrying out thermal equilibrium on the osmometer for 15-20 minutes, recording the reading of the liquid level by using a reading instrument, then lifting the osmometer by a known height, recording the reading, calculating the coefficient, giving out the change of the pressure and the reading, and finally comparing the change with the median line of the calibration table; each osmometer obtains a zero reading, namely an initial reading, and the zero reading is used for post-processing data;
(5) after the osmometer is checked and determined to be normal, the osmometer starts to be installed; during installation, the bottom of the drilled hole is backfilled with fine sand to 15cm below the end of the osmometer, and the osmometer is placed; wherein, the osmometer is sealed in a sand bag; soaking sand in water, putting the sand in place, putting the sand around the osmometer, and putting the sand 15cm above the osmometer;
(6) drilling and sealing: when the sand reaches the catchment area, the hole is sealed, the alternate layers are backfilled with bentonite balls and a proper amount of sand for about 25cm, and then the alternate layers are backfilled with ordinary soil.
When the radar water level gauge is installed, a diameter upright rod is established on the side of the monitored section close to the river, a length steel pipe is welded at the top end of the upright rod, and one end of the radar water level gauge loaded extends to the river or a drainage ditch; the axis of the radar water level gauge is vertical to the water surface; the radar water level gauge is connected with a 4G transmission module in the data acquisition box through a data transmission cable for data acquisition and transmission.
The installation pole setting of camera and the pole setting of radar water level gauge share, the data transmission module of camera and the 4G transmission module of radar water level gauge share.
The installation method of the soil displacement meter comprises the following steps:
after 3 sets of measuring rods and PVC protection pipes are connected, connecting a tail end connecting pipe with a pipe joint for the PVC protection pipe to be connected, comparing the required length, and then cutting the required length; during installation, adding one more measuring rod to the last measuring rod in advance, and finally arranging 3 sets of soil displacement meters which are well installed and tested in a 5m standard dike backwater side groove, and backfilling and covering; and leveling the uneven part with sand again in the covering process, wherein the thickness of artificial backfill is not less than 30cm, and tamping is used after backfill.
The emergency early warning system for flood control of the dike emergency engineering, provided by the invention, has high early warning reliability, excellent monitoring performance, higher reliability of analysis and early warning functions, good durability and capability of giving lasting benefits; is very suitable for flood control safety monitoring and early warning of dikes.
The invention not only provides a suitable installation construction method for an embankment dangerous worker flood control emergency early warning system and devices, but also provides a suitable embankment dangerous worker flood control safety networking monitoring index and threshold setting, provides a quantified index for embankment monitoring early warning, and compares real-time monitoring data; is very suitable for flood control safety monitoring and early warning of dikes.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic layout diagram of a DF-I section monitoring emergency early warning apparatus in embodiment 1 of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a layout diagram of a DF-ii section monitoring emergency early warning apparatus in the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is a layout diagram of a DF-III section monitoring emergency early warning apparatus in the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 4 is a layout diagram of the DF-iv section monitoring emergency early warning apparatus in the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 5 is a monitoring section layout diagram of the river regulation project in
FIG. 6 is a schematic view showing a cross-section of a river mainly entering yellow and a major drainage ditch according to example 6 of the present invention.
Fig. 7 is a schematic view of a single-point displacement meter according to
Fig. 8 is a construction drawing of the seepage pressure and seepage flow monitoring device of the
Fig. 9 shows a safety monitoring system structure according to
Fig. 10 is a construction drawing of the displacement monitoring device for the surface of the backwater slope according to
Fig. 11 is a construction drawing of the sedimentation monitoring apparatus according to
Fig. 12 is a construction diagram of a GPS deformation monitoring apparatus according to
In the figure: 1. DF-I dike dangerous work section; 2. a soil displacement meter; 3. an osmometer; 4. a radar level gauge; 5, lightning rod; 6. a solar panel; 7. an information acquisition box; 8. DF-II dike dangerous work section; 9. a CNSS receiver; 10. DF-III embankment dangerous work section; 11. DF-IV embankment dangerous work section; 12. monitoring the section of the river regulation project; 13. a single point displacement meter; 14. monitoring the cross section of a main river entering yellow and a key drainage ditch; 15. a camera; 16. sand soil; 17. concrete; 18. ordinary soil; 19. bentonite balls; 20. sand; 21. a data processing layer; 22. expert diagnostic/emergency protocols (modules); 23. a system early warning module; 24. a data distribution layer; 25. a soil displacement meter sensor; 26. a measuring rod and a protection tube; 27. an expansion joint; 28. a flange plate; 29. an anchor head; 30. a measuring rod; 31. a flange settling pan; 32. a transmission cable; 33. a steel wire corrugated pipe; 34. foundation pier; 35. monitoring a pier main trunk by a GPS; 36. a reinforcing mesh; 37. a reinforcement cage; 38. anchoring ribs; 39. a wire passing pipe; 40. an osmometer cable; 41. a reading instrument.
Detailed Description
The invention is described in further detail below with reference to the figures and specific examples. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not intended to limit the invention.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that, unless otherwise defined, all terms (including technical and scientific terms) used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention belongs. It will be further understood that terms, such as those defined in commonly used dictionaries, should be interpreted as having a meaning that is consistent with their meaning in the context of the prior art and will not be interpreted in an idealized or overly formal sense unless expressly so defined herein.
The meaning of "inside and outside" in the present invention means that the direction pointing to the inside of the device is inside and vice versa with respect to the device itself, and is not a specific limitation of the mechanism of the apparatus of the present invention.
The term "connected" as used herein may mean either a direct connection between the components or an indirect connection between the components via other components.
Referring to fig. 9, an emergency warning system for dangerous situations of a dam includes:
the front-end sensor acquisition layer is used for acquiring real-time data of each monitoring parameter and comprises a soil body displacement meter for acquiring surface displacement information of a slope surface on the back water side of a standard dike, a single-point displacement meter for acquiring sedimentation displacement information of the surface of a river regulation project, an osmometer for acquiring saturation line information of a monitoring point, a radar water level meter for acquiring water level change information of the monitoring point, a GNSS receiver for acquiring horizontal displacement and sedimentation change information of a dam test section and a camera for acquiring a real-time video image of the monitoring point;
the data integration transmission layer is used for acquiring the real-time data and transmitting the real-time data to the data processing layer;
the data processing layer comprises a dam safety monitoring intelligent management system and a database and is used for analyzing, processing and intelligently diagnosing the real-time data of the monitoring parameters, judging whether various monitoring parameters reach an early warning threshold value or not, and linking early warning and/or expert diagnosis to form an emergency plan when the monitoring parameters reach the early warning threshold value;
and the data distribution layer is used for distributing various monitoring results reaching the early warning threshold value to a specified receiving terminal in an early warning information mode for displaying.
In the invention, the front-end sensor acquisition layer is mainly used for acquiring data of monitoring data change conditions in a monitoring area by using a soil displacement meter, a single-point displacement meter, a GNSS receiver (a test section), an osmometer, a radar level gauge and the like;
the integrated transmission layer carries out system integration on the front-end sensor, and is combined with auxiliary guarantee systems such as field power supply, lightning protection and physical protection; the soil displacement meter, the single-point displacement meter, the digital osmometer and the digital radar water level meter are transmitted to a data center through acquisition and transmission equipment; the video is transmitted to a monitoring center through 4G, a scene photo is collected every half hour and sent to a video monitoring platform, and the monitoring center can switch real-time video/photo collection according to the actual scene situation;
the data processing layer comprises an intelligent dam safety monitoring management system and a database, realizes real-time receiving, storing, managing, maintaining, inquiring, statistical analysis and retrieval of monitoring data of various monitoring instruments in a monitoring area, has humanized system operation and good compatibility, can flexibly and conveniently increase, delete, change, check and configure the system, and is linked with system early warning and expert diagnosis/emergency plans;
the data distribution layer is used for realizing real-time data display, and can be used for sending early warning information to multiple points in groups such as a designated mobile communication terminal, a superior leader, a management unit, a monitoring large screen, a handheld terminal, a field LED large screen and the like for various monitoring results reaching an early warning threshold value, so as to provide dam safety information service for users such as an engineering management unit, a water administration department, social public and the like;
wherein, the monitoring content of the embankment dangerous work comprises the following steps: the monitoring of the displacement of the surface of the landslide, settlement monitoring, test section horizontal displacement and settlement monitoring, saturation line monitoring, water level monitoring and video monitoring are carried out through each monitoring project, and then a complete dyke dangerous worker flood control emergency monitoring and early warning instrument device and a corresponding monitoring technology are formed.
The following describes the different monitoring contents in detail:
wherein: the displacement monitoring of the surface of the backwater slope comprises a data acquisition end and a data transmission and data monitoring center;
the data acquisition end: the surface displacement information of the slope surface on the backwater side of the standard dike is obtained by utilizing a soil displacement meter according to the set return frequency, so that the purposes of long-term monitoring and automatic observation of the surface displacement of the slope surface are realized;
the soil body displacement meter adopts a vibrating wire type soil body displacement meter, the measuring range of 200mm, the precision is less than or equal to 0.1 percent FS, and the resolution is as follows: 0.025% FS, temperature range: -20-80 ℃, water pressure resistance: 2MPa, length: 1 m-2 m, wherein the arrangement mode of the displacement meters is a serial connection mode;
the data transmission comprises the following steps: the displacement monitoring data of the surface of the backwater slope, which are acquired by the soil displacement meter, are transmitted to a data acquisition device through a 485 bus or a standard signal cable, then transmitted to the Internet by using a 4G wireless transmission module, and finally enter a data monitoring center, so that the monitoring data can be automatically acquired and stored all weather;
the data monitoring center: the system has the functions of data receiving, sorting, calculating, analyzing, early warning, alarming and the like, presents the sorted and calculated data to a user in a real-time browsing or report form mode, and timely reacts abnormal information to the user when the data is abnormal, so that the function of immediate deformation early warning is achieved.
Wherein: the settlement monitoring is the same as the monitoring of the surface displacement of the backwater slope in component part;
the data acquisition end: the method comprises the following steps of obtaining settlement displacement information of the surface of a river regulation project by using a vibrating string type single-point displacement meter according to a set return frequency, and achieving the purposes of long-term settlement monitoring and automatic observation;
the data transmission is the same as that of the displacement monitoring of the surface of the backwater slope;
the data monitoring center: the system has the functions of data receiving, sorting, calculating, analyzing, early warning, alarming and the like, presents the sorted and calculated data to a user in a real-time browsing or report form mode, and timely reacts abnormal information to the user when the data is abnormal, so that the function of immediate settlement early warning is achieved.
Wherein: monitoring horizontal displacement and settlement of the test section, namely monitoring the horizontal displacement and settlement change of the dam test section in real time by adopting the conventional GPS measurement mode (GNSS);
wherein: the saturation line monitoring comprises a monitoring center and a monitoring terminal;
the monitoring center is characterized in that: the method comprises the following steps of receiving the information of the saturation lines from each monitoring station, and then screening, storing, counting, analyzing and monitoring the center to form a data acquisition unit, a data transmission unit and data analysis software;
the monitoring terminal: the system is distributed in each monitoring station, each monitoring station uses a vibrating wire osmometer to acquire data, and each terminal is provided with parameters such as time, hole number, initial water level, measurement time interval, short message center number, monitoring center mobile phone number and the like of a measuring instrument, so that the monitoring terminal can acquire, calculate and store water level data and can send saturation line information to a monitoring center through 4G;
the vibration wire type osmotic pressure measurement range is 0.17MPa, the precision is less than or equal to 0.5 percent FS, the sensitivity is 0.025 percent FS, and the overload capacity is 50 percent;
the vibrating wire osmometer is the prior art;
wherein: the water level monitoring adopts a radar water level gauge and equipment which is the same as the data acquisition, transmission and processing in the monitoring subsystem to monitor;
the radar level gauges are prior art;
wherein: the video monitoring comprises a front end, a transmission and data monitoring center and a data monitoring center;
the monitoring front end comprises a camera, a lens, a holder, a protective cover, a decoding driver and the like which are matched with the camera, and is provided with alarm equipment;
the data transmission comprises the following steps: through the way of handling the traffic monthly card and triggering the real-time video when the video station needs to regularly transmit the pictures at ordinary times, the expenses are saved and the data transmission quality is guaranteed;
the data monitoring center: the management, control, alarm processing, video recording, video playback and user management work of all front-end equipment are undertaken;
it should be noted that, in the present invention, the transmission and collection devices are both existing devices and technologies.
The invention realizes the principle of monitoring an emergency early warning system:
the invention determines the monitoring items of the dam safety monitoring on-line monitoring system according to the requirements of the dam monitoring specification and the grade, hydrology, geology, environment and hidden danger of the dam foundation of the dike of the typical dike section of the Ningxia section of the yellow river, and comprises the following items:
monitoring osmotic pressure and seepage flow: the method comprises the steps of monitoring the seepage line of the body of the dike and the seepage of the dike foundation, grasping the positions and amplitude of the seepage line and the seepage surface, and determining the seepage condition of the body of the dike and the seepage of the dike foundation;
and (3) deformation monitoring: the method mainly comprises the steps of monitoring the surface displacement of a backwater side slope surface of a standard dike, and simultaneously selecting two dike sections as test areas to simultaneously monitor dike top settlement and horizontal displacement; in addition, the settlement monitoring of the river regulation engineering is carried out. Determining the whole displacement deformation condition of the dam body of the dam by grasping the change of the surface position of the whole dam and the change rate of the change;
environmental monitoring: the method comprises the steps of monitoring the water level and videos to assist in judging the safety condition of the dam engineering and the pollution discharge condition of a key drainage ditch, and has a certain monitoring effect on dam engineering dangerous cases such as bank collapse and the like and river pollution.
Therefore, the method and the device can be used for carrying out surface displacement monitoring, settlement monitoring, horizontal displacement and settlement monitoring of test sections, wetting line monitoring, water level monitoring and video monitoring on the dike emergency worker to form a complete dike emergency flood control early warning instrument device and a monitoring technology which meet the standard requirements.
Meanwhile, the technology and equipment involved in the monitoring emergency early warning system are the prior art, the prior art and the equipment are innovatively combined, corresponding monitoring indexes and threshold values are confirmed through experiments and simulation, emergency early warning of flood control dangerous cases of the dike security risk workers is finally achieved, the equipment is used for collecting, processing and storing data, the corresponding safety indexes and threshold values are used for judging and analyzing the data, and real-time monitoring and timely early warning of flood control safety of the dike security risk workers are achieved.
Therefore, the invention meets the requirements on the specification and is technically convenient to realize.
In a specific embodiment of the emergency early warning system for monitoring, a soil displacement meter, a osmometer and a radar level gauge are adopted to monitor the surface displacement of the slope at the back water side of the dike, the dike body and dike foundation infiltration line and the water level of the yellow river; and monitoring the horizontal displacement and the settlement deformation of the test section by adopting a GPS deformation monitoring technology. According to the types of standard embankments in the monitoring range and the results of field investigation and survey on Ningxia segments of yellow river, the specific arrangement types of the selected monitoring sections are DF-I, DF-II, DF-III and DF-IV.
In a specific embodiment of the monitoring emergency early warning system, the monitoring of the surface displacement of the backwater slope uses a soil displacement meter sensor, a measuring rod protection pipe, an expansion joint (the number is the number of the sensors, and the length of a single expansion joint is 50cm), a flange plate, a nylon screw for locking an expansion sleeve, a support ring and a conical guide rod. Connecting a telescopic joint, screwing 4 nylon screws at two ends of the telescopic sleeve into the telescopic joint and screwing the nylon screws tightly by using an inner hexagonal wrench to prevent the protective tube from being pushed into the telescopic sleeve or pulled out in the connecting process, connecting 3 sets of measuring rods and PVC protective tubes, connecting the tail end connecting pipe (with the length of about 50cm, one end of the tail end connecting pipe can be sleeved in the flange plate at the tail end) with a pipe joint (temporarily not coated with PVC glue) for a PVC protective pipe to be connected, comparing the required length, the length is typically referenced to the length at the end of the last measuring rod, and the exact length is then taken, the length is related to the measurement requirement of the soil displacement meter, the measuring rod needs to be pre-pulled out for a certain length when being installed, when the last measuring rod is installed, an additional measuring rod is needed in advance so that the end protection pipe and the flange can be installed, and when the preset length is reached, the end flange can be installed, as shown in fig. 10.
And (3) reading by using a reading instrument before mounting the flange, fully considering whether the reading of the instrument meets a preset tension and compression range, connecting an instrument cable with the reading instrument after the steps are completed, and checking whether the reading is in a preset range. If the difference is larger, the preset range can be reached by adjusting the telescopic joint at the end of the instrument, 3 sets of soil displacement meters which are well installed and tested are distributed in the grooves at the back water side of the standard dike with the length of 5m (the average length of the slope surface) multiplied by 0.5m (the depth of the groove) multiplied by 0.5m (the width of the groove), then backfilling is carried out, the instrument is covered by sand by adopting a manual method, the uneven part is leveled by the sand again in the covering process, the thickness of the manual backfilling is not less than 30cm, and the filler is compacted by manual tamping after the backfilling.
According to a specific embodiment of the monitoring emergency early warning system, settlement monitoring is carried out by firstly selecting points according to a design scheme, determining a hole position where a single-point displacement meter is installed, checking whether the single-point displacement meter is intact, connecting the sensor with a reading instrument, holding two ends of the sensor with hands, pulling or pressing two ends of the sensor, checking whether the reading instrument is normal, embedding the reading instrument by drilling holes, enabling the hole diameter of each drilling hole to be 110mm, enabling the drilling holes to be vertical, enabling the hole depth to be consistent with the total length of the single-point displacement meter, enabling the hole openings to be flat, connecting a measuring rod of the anchor head and a measuring rod of the single-point displacement meter by using an equal-diameter joint, and slowly placing the measuring rod connected with the anchor head into the drilled drilling holes (the anchor head. And stopping when the top of the measuring rod is 200mm away from the orifice, lengthening the measuring rod by using the constant diameter joint, and then placing downwards until the anchor head is placed at the bottom of the hole. And determining the actual depth of the hole according to the length of the measuring rod placed in the hole. When hole probing is carried out, sediment, sludge and the like at the bottom of a hole are ensured to be avoided, the anchor head of the single-point displacement meter is ensured to be in direct contact with bedrock, and then the single-point displacement meter is installed.
In order to better protect the main body of the single-point displacement meter, the flange settlement plate is required to be arranged 10-20cm below the foundation surface of the foundation, so that after the hole is probed and the hole depth is determined, the total length of the required measuring rod is configured by adopting measuring rods with different lengths. After the required measuring rod is determined, the anchor head, the measuring rod and the sedimentation main body are connected well, installed in the hole and the anchor head is connected to the bedrock. The anchor head at the bottom end is fixed by expansion cement, and then the anchor head is poured to the extension rod by cement paste, and then the anchor head is backfilled by fine sand. After the single-point displacement meter is installed, a transmission cable is sleeved with a phi 20PVC steel wire corrugated pipe for protection, the head end of the steel wire corrugated pipe is inserted below a flange settlement plate, as shown in figure 11, a wiring groove with the depth of 1m and the width of 0.5m is dug and introduced into a collection box, the lower end of the wiring groove is filled with coarse sand for 0.7m, the upper end of the wiring groove is filled with concrete for 0.3 m, so as to prevent theft or damage, a zero point is set after the shrinkage cavity is completed after 2-3 days of burying, recording and archiving are carried out according to the instrument number and the design number, and the leading-out cable of the instrument is strictly protected.
In a specific embodiment of the monitoring emergency early warning system, the horizontal displacement and settlement monitoring of the test section adopts GPS deformation monitoring, and the GPS deformation monitoring device is constructed, and the specific steps are as follows, as shown in fig. 12:
(1) firstly, point selection is carried out, after the point selection, a monitoring pier foundation is excavated, and the pier foundation is placed in bedrock (a reference station) or an undisturbed soil layer (a monitoring station). The specific operation is as follows: and digging a foundation pit at the monitoring point, wherein the size of the foundation pit is 1.5m multiplied by 1.5 m. Then 8 phi 12 steel bars are evenly anchored into the rock mass or the soil foundation for 0.5m around the bottom of the foundation pit, the upper surface of each steel bar is exposed for 0.5m, and when concrete is poured into the foundation pit and is tightly poured, the pier foundation and the surrounding rock mass or soil layer are integrated, so that the GPS observation pier is not influenced by other external additional factors (such as the influence of vehicle passing vibration on a displacement monitoring point);
(2) the steel tube assembly machine is characterized in that a 320mm steel tube (a main trunk of a GPS monitoring pier), a steel reinforcement cage, U-shaped steel (an installation lightning rod), a PVC32 tube (a wire passing tube) and a PVC tube connecting elbow are assembled into a whole. During assembly, the steel reinforcement cage is placed in the middle of the steel pipe phi 320, the U-shaped steel is welded on the steel reinforcement cage, the PVC32 pipe is placed on the inner side of the steel pipe phi 320, and the through-line PVC32 pipe is connected to the PVC32 pipe outside the pipe through a connecting elbow;
(3) pouring concrete into the foundation pit, placing the customized reinforcing mesh on the foundation pit when the height of the top surface of the concrete from the bottom of the foundation pit is 30cm, and welding the reinforcing mesh and 8 reinforcing steel bars anchored into the rock body or the soil foundation. One steel bar in the steel bar mesh is not completely covered by concrete, a part of the exposed steel bar is used for connecting a ground mesh, each monitoring pier needs to be grounded, and the grounding resistance of each monitoring pier is less than 5 omega;
(4) and (3) erecting the assembled equipment in the step (2) at the center in the foundation pit, and welding the reinforcement cage and the reinforcement mesh together. After the steel pipe phi 320 is vertical, firmly fixing the assembled equipment by using a proper method, wherein the steel pipe phi 320 needs to be ensured to be vertical, then pouring concrete into the foundation pit, and pouring and tamping to be compact so that the concrete has no hollowness until the concrete is flush with the ground;
(5) pouring concrete into the steel pipe phi 320, tamping the concrete when pouring the concrete, and paying attention to the position of the through PVC32 pipe and the sealing of the upper pipe orifice to prevent the concrete from entering the PVC32 pipe;
(6) after the concrete is fully filled, the top end of the concrete is leveled, then a forced centering device (provided with a GPS antenna) is arranged on the concrete, the centering device is positioned in the center of the top of the observation pier so as to be attractive, and then a leveling ruler is used for leveling the centering device;
(7) and after the concrete is cured for a period of time to ensure that certain installation strength can be achieved, installing and debugging equipment such as a data acquisition box, a GPS receiver, a GPS antenna, a lightning rod, power-on communication and the like are carried out.
By the implementation method, lightning protection can be achieved, equipment safety is guaranteed, the GPS monitoring pier and surrounding rock masses or soil foundations can be integrated, and GPS monitoring data are not affected by other external additional factors.
In a specific embodiment of the monitoring emergency early warning system of the present invention, the saturation line monitoring, i.e. the osmotic pressure and seepage flow monitoring, and the construction of the osmotic pressure and seepage flow monitoring device, includes the following specific steps, as shown in fig. 8:
(1) selecting points according to a design scheme, and determining the hole site for installing the osmometer;
(2) before construction, the field needs to be leveled so that a drilling machine can be conveniently installed and moved, and measures such as hardening, reinforcing and the like are taken for a loose field which is not beneficial to the operation of a construction machine;
(3) the hole position, the hole depth and the hole inclination of the drilled hole meet the design requirements, the hole diameter of the drilled hole is phi 110mm, the hole position deviation cannot exceed 10cm, the hole depth reaches the design depth or the design layer position, and preferably 15-30cm below the preset position of the osmometer;
(4) after the drilling is finished, preliminary inspection and calibration of the osmometer are required before the osmometer is buried, the osmometer is soaked with the permeable stone, water is filled in a cavity between the permeable stone and the diaphragm, then the osmometer is sunk to the bottom of the measuring hole by a cable to measure the actual depth, the osmometer is subjected to thermal equilibrium for 15-20 minutes, the reading of the liquid level is recorded by the reading instrument, the osmometer is lifted by a known height, the reading is recorded, the coefficient is calculated, the change of the pressure and the reading is given, and finally the change is compared with the value in the calibration meter. Each osmometer needs to take an accurate zero reading (i.e. the initial reading) which will be used for later data processing, typically a zero reading taken before the instrument is installed (i.e. when no pressure is applied);
(5) and after the osmometer is checked and determined to be normal, starting to install. When the installation can not use the material (such as return material) which can sink rapidly with time, the bottom of the hole is backfilled with clean fine sand to 15cm below the end of the osmometer, and then the osmometer can be put in, preferably the osmometer is sealed in a sand bag to keep clean. The sand is soaked by water and then put in place (marking on a cable), when the instrument is at the position, clean sand is put around the osmometer, and the sand can be put 15cm above the osmometer;
(6) and (5) sealing the drilled hole. When the sand reaches the "catchment area", the hole is sealed, the alternate layers are backfilled with bentonite balls and a suitable amount of sand for about 25cm, and then the alternate layers are backfilled with ordinary soil, special care is taken in designing and using the plugging tool to avoid damaging the cable of the osmometer;
(7) and manufacturing a monitoring pier at a monitoring point for protection, setting a signboard for warning and arranging a professional to take charge of the supervision, so that the osmometer wire is prevented from being damaged due to construction or natural factors.
In one embodiment of the monitoring emergency early warning system, the water level monitoring equipment is constructed by the following specific steps:
(1) the position of the vertical rod for loading the radar water level gauge is selected from the side of a standard dike close to the river, a main river entering yellow and a key drainage ditch;
(2) establishing a steel pipe upright rod with the diameter phi of 15cm and the height of 6m on the river-facing side of the monitored section, welding a steel pipe (phi of 4cm) with the length of 4m at the top end of the upright rod, and extending one end of a water level meter loaded with a radar to a yellow river or a drainage ditch;
(3) fixing a radar water level gauge on a phi 4cm steel pipe, and ensuring that the axis of a sensor of the radar water level gauge is vertical to the water surface;
(4) the radar water level gauge is connected with the 4G module in the data acquisition box through a data transmission cable for data acquisition and transmission.
According to a specific embodiment of the monitoring emergency early warning system, the vertical rod of the video monitoring installation camera and the vertical rod of the radar water level gauge are shared, and the transmission module is also shared with the radar water level gauge.
The prior art and the equipment are adopted as auxiliary facilities of a safety monitoring system, and the auxiliary facilities comprise a lightning protection facility, a communication system, a power supply system and an anti-theft system.
The invention relates to a monitoring index of flood control safety networking for dikes: the method comprises the following steps of dividing into a safety monitoring and early warning index system and a dangerous case comprehensive evaluation formula;
the feasibility analysis of online monitoring is carried out on 33 safety influence factors of the comprehensive analysis system of the flood control safety influence factors, so that 13 monitorable indexes, 15 determinative indexes and 5 uncertain indexes are determined. Further analyzing the monitorable indexes to obtain 9 safety influence factors including flood water level, infiltration line, seepage quantity, horizontal displacement, vertical displacement, embankment slope displacement, rainfall, water rising and falling rate and flood duration, and using the safety influence factors as online safety monitoring and early warning indexes;
aiming at the flood control safety monitoring index system, the invention researches the mutual influence relation of all monitoring indexes by using a decision trial and evaluation laboratory method according to the correlation of the flood control safety monitoring indexes, optimizes the flood control safety monitoring index system, and determines 6 safety influence factors of flood water level, infiltration line, vertical displacement, horizontal displacement, back water slope displacement and rising and falling water velocity to be used as the flood control engineering safety monitoring early warning indexes.
According to the invention, by means of numerical simulation of the monitoring and early warning index system, and referring to relevant regulations of dikes, tailing ponds and earth-rock dam engineering, quantitative evaluation and calculation are carried out on dike flood safety monitoring and early warning indexes to respectively obtain corresponding monitoring and early warning index thresholds of flood water level, wetting line, vertical displacement, horizontal displacement, back water slope displacement and water rising and falling rate, and the indexes are used for analyzing the functional relations among independent variable safety coefficient K, independent variable water level H, water rising and falling rate V, average dike body pore water pressure monitoring value P1 (the average value of A1, A2 and A3), dike base pore level average monitoring value P2 (the average value of B1, B2 and B3), dike emergent water side dyke top xy displacement sxy and back water slope body displacement sL by means of a multivariate linear fitting method to obtain a dike danger comprehensive evaluation formula;
wherein, the threshold value of the safety early warning index of the flood level of the dike is 8.33 m;
wherein, when the dyke seepage stability safety coefficient is 1.15, the infiltration line is a seepage safety early warning value;
wherein the vertical displacement safety early warning value is 12mm, and the vertical deformation rate warning value is 8 mm/d;
wherein the horizontal displacement safety early warning value is 50mm, and the horizontal deformation rate warning value is 10 mm/d;
wherein the displacement safety early warning value of the backwater slope is 21mm, and the horizontal deformation rate warning value is 10 mm/d;
the comprehensive evaluation formula of the dike danger is divided into the following steps according to different layout sections:
(1) DF-I section dangerous case comprehensive evaluation formula:
K＝0.7H-0.065V-0.02P1-1.557sL-0.1P2
(2) DF-II section dangerous case comprehensive evaluation formula:
K＝1.248+0.22H-0.027V-0.005P1-0.667sL-0.048P2-7sxy
(3) DF-III type section dangerous case comprehensive evaluation formula:
K＝1.23H-2.15V-0.08P1-0.1P2-7.09sL+1
(4) DF-IV type section dangerous case comprehensive evaluation formula:
K＝0.03H-0.28V-0.09P1+0.13P2-90sL+0.26
the invention uses the above formula according to different cross sections, and the relative water level formula is suitable for judging whether the embankment is in a safe state according to a single index threshold value when the relative water level is higher than 4m and the relative water level is lower than 4 m.
According to the dike flood control safety monitoring and early warning index and the dike dangerous case comprehensive evaluation formula, the dike safety is monitored and evaluated in real time, and under the dangerous condition, the data analysis and display layer is used for simultaneously linking the system early warning and the expert diagnosis/emergency plan.
The real-time acquisition of the monitoring data is realized by the following monitoring means: water level monitoring, its information analysis mainly includes: analyzing the water level process, performing water level statistical analysis (maximum value and minimum value in the past year, mean value in different statistical time periods), performing water level trend analysis, and reporting and early warning the water level and the water level trend of the dike emergency worker in real time according to the analysis results of the parts;
the slope surface displacement monitoring method mainly comprises the following steps of: the method comprises the following steps of slope surface displacement process analysis, slope surface displacement statistical analysis (maximum value and minimum value in the past year, mean value in different statistical time periods) and trend analysis, and reporting and early warning the slope surface displacement of the dike danger worker in real time according to the analysis results of all the parts;
the horizontal displacement monitoring, its information analysis mainly includes: horizontal displacement process analysis, horizontal displacement statistical analysis (maximum value and minimum value in the past year, mean value in different statistical time periods) and trend analysis, and real-time reporting and early warning are carried out on horizontal displacement and displacement trend of the dike danger worker according to the analysis results of the parts;
settlement monitoring, the information analysis of which mainly includes: the settlement process analysis, the settlement statistical analysis and the settlement trend analysis are carried out, and the settlement trend of the dike danger work are reported and early warned in real time according to the analysis results of the parts;
the information analysis of the infiltration line monitoring mainly comprises the following steps: analyzing the wetting line process, monitoring the trend analysis of the wetting line of the section, and reporting and early warning the wetting line of the dike danger worker and the next development trend of the wetting line in real time according to the analysis results of the parts;
and (3) processing and summarizing the monitoring information of each part, and then performing correlation analysis: the method comprises slope surface displacement and water level correlation analysis, horizontal displacement and water level correlation analysis, sedimentation and water level correlation analysis and saturation line and water level correlation analysis.
Wherein, the water level monitoring and predicting analysis: the water level monitoring data of the system is important data for verifying whether the water level of the dike emergency worker is safe, analyzing the dike breaking accident and judging the danger level of the dike emergency worker. The water level monitoring value is the reflection of the action result of a single factor which is different from the dike danger worker per se on a certain space and a specific time. The water level monitoring has double effects of monitoring and forecasting. The effective way of making good predictions is to apply the gray system theory to process the observation data and establish a gray weighting model. In the grey model prediction, a grey weighting model is adopted to reduce the blindness and the randomness of quantization and improve the prediction precision.
The method comprises the following steps of slope surface displacement monitoring and prediction analysis, horizontal displacement monitoring and prediction analysis, settlement monitoring data prediction analysis and saturation line monitoring data prediction analysis: all are important data for verifying the safety of each component of the dike security personnel, analyzing the accidents of the dike security personnel and judging the construction quality. The observed values are all reflected by the comprehensive action results of a plurality of factors in a certain space and specific time, wherein the slope surface displacement monitoring and predicting analysis, the horizontal displacement monitoring and predicting analysis, the settlement monitoring data predicting analysis and the saturation line monitoring data predicting analysis have mutual influence. The observation should have both monitoring and forecasting capabilities. The gray system theory can be applied to process observation data, and the establishment of a gray weighting model is an effective way for making good forecast. In the grey model prediction, a grey weighting model is adopted to reduce the blindness and the randomness of quantization and improve the prediction precision.
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