阅读说明：本技术 一种基于运行状态异常信息的母线故障概率计算方法 (Bus fault probability calculation method based on running state abnormal information ) 是由 郁琛 朱建军 常康 徐泰山 黄伟兵 宁波 韩红卫 严兵 李桐 苏明昕 黄燕 于 2019-10-09 设计创作，主要内容包括：本发明公开了一种基于运行状态异常信息的母线故障概率计算方法,包括,读取母线运行状态与电压信息；然后对母线运行信息进行分析,筛选出各类运行状态异常信号；再根据基于运行状态异常信息的母线故障概率计算公式,计算母线故障概率；最后将各相关母线的故障概率由大到小排序,得到基于运行状态异常信息的母线故障集。本发明向电网在线安全稳定评估预警系统输出风险设备故障集,便于后续评估电网在母线运行状态异常环境下的安全稳定性并给出安全稳定控制措施,有助于提高电网安全稳定运行水平。(The invention discloses a bus fault probability calculation method based on running state abnormal information, which comprises the steps of reading bus running state and voltage information; then analyzing the bus operation information, and screening out various abnormal operation state signals; calculating the fault probability of the bus according to a bus fault probability calculation formula based on the abnormal information of the running state; and finally, sequencing the fault probability of each related bus from large to small to obtain a bus fault set based on the abnormal information of the running state. The invention outputs the risk equipment fault set to the online safety and stability assessment early warning system of the power grid, is convenient for subsequently assessing the safety and stability of the power grid in the abnormal environment of the bus running state and giving out safety and stability control measures, and is beneficial to improving the safety and stability running level of the power grid.)

1. A bus fault probability calculation method based on running state abnormal information is characterized by comprising the following steps:

reading the running state and voltage information of the bus;

Screening abnormal signals for the read bus running state;

Determining the failure rate of each component associated with the running state information according to the screened abnormal signals; determining a bus voltage correction coefficient according to the read voltage information;

Calculating the fault probability of the bus according to the fault rate of each component associated with the running state information and the bus voltage correction coefficient;

And generating a bus fault set according to the fault probability of each bus.

2. the bus fault probability calculation method based on the abnormal operation state information according to claim 1, wherein the reading of the bus operation state and the voltage information comprises: and uploading the running state and real-time voltage information of the bus in real time through a data acquisition and monitoring control system.

3. the method for calculating the fault probability of the bus based on the abnormal information of the operating state of the bus as claimed in claim 1, wherein the time frequency for reading the operating state and the voltage information of the bus is not lower than once every 15 min.

4. the bus fault probability calculation method based on the abnormal operation state information according to claim 1, wherein the abnormal signal screening of the read bus operation state comprises:

dividing the read bus running state information into 5 types: the bus circuit breaker state information, the current transformer state information, the voltage transformer state information, the bus protection device state information and the bus coupler protection device state information are obtained;

And respectively screening out fault, alarm and abnormal signals of each type of state information.

5. the method for calculating the fault probability of the bus based on the abnormal operating state information as claimed in claim 4, wherein the step of determining the fault rate of each component associated with the abnormal operating state information according to the screened abnormal signals comprises the following steps:

The bus breaker failure rate value is as follows:

if the abnormal signal is the fault of the bus circuit breaker, the fault rate of the bus circuit breaker is 1;

If the abnormal signal is a bus breaker alarm, the failure rate of the bus breaker is 0.7;

If the abnormal signal is that the bus circuit breaker is abnormal, the failure rate of the bus circuit breaker is 0.4;

The failure rate of the current transformer takes values as follows:

if the abnormal signal is the fault of the current transformer, the fault rate of the current transformer is 1;

If the abnormal signal is a current transformer alarm, the fault rate of the current transformer is 0.7;

If the abnormal signal is that the current transformer is abnormal, the fault rate of the current transformer is 0.4;

The failure rate of the voltage transformer takes values as follows:

If the abnormal signal is the voltage transformer fault, the fault rate of the voltage transformer is 1;

If the abnormal signal is a voltage transformer alarm, the fault rate of the voltage transformer is 0.7;

if the abnormal signal is that the voltage transformer is abnormal, the fault rate of the voltage transformer is 0.4;

The failure rate of the bus protection device takes values as follows:

If the abnormal signal is the fault of the bus protection device, the fault rate of the bus protection device is 1;

If the abnormal signal is a bus protection device alarm, the failure rate of the bus protection device is 0.7;

if the abnormal signal indicates that the bus protection device is abnormal, the fault rate of the bus protection device is 0.4;

The failure rate of the bus tie protection device takes values as follows:

if the abnormal signal is the fault of the bus-coupled protection device, the fault rate of the bus-coupled protection device is 1;

If the abnormal signal is an alarm of the bus tie protection device, the failure rate of the bus tie protection device is 0.7;

and if the abnormal signal indicates that the bus tie protection device is abnormal, the failure rate of the bus tie protection device is 0.4.

6. the method for calculating the fault probability of the bus based on the abnormal information of the operating state as claimed in claim 5, wherein if a plurality of abnormal signals exist in the same component of a bus within the statistical time, the maximum value of the fault rates corresponding to all the abnormal signals is taken as the fault rate of the component.

7. The method for calculating the bus fault probability based on the abnormal operating condition information, according to the claim 1, wherein the step of determining the bus voltage correction coefficient according to the read voltage information comprises the following steps:

If the voltage exceeds the absolute value of the upper limit/the lower limit of the voltage within the range of [0, 5%), the bus voltage correction coefficient takes the value of 1;

If the voltage exceeds the absolute value of the upper limit/the lower limit of the voltage within the range of [ 5-10%), the value of the bus voltage correction coefficient is 1.5;

If the voltage exceeds the upper/lower limit of the voltage by an absolute value within a range of [10, ∞) ], the bus voltage correction coefficient takes a value of 2.

8. the method for calculating the bus fault probability based on the abnormal operating state information according to claim 1, wherein calculating the bus fault probability according to the fault rate of each component associated with the abnormal operating state information and the bus voltage correction coefficient comprises:

wherein P is the bus fault probability, λ_{Circuit breaker}For bus breaker failure rate, λ_CTTo the failure rate of the current transformer, lambda_PTTo the failure rate of the voltage transformer, lambda_{Bus protection}For bus protection device failure rate, λ_{bus tie protection}for the failure rate of the buscouple protection device, lambda₀is a constant number, k_{voltage of}Is a bus voltage correction factor.

9. The method for calculating the fault probability of the bus based on the abnormal information of the running state as claimed in claim 8, wherein λ₀The value is 0.02 times per station per year.

10. The method for calculating the bus fault probability based on the abnormal operating state information according to claim 1, wherein generating a bus fault set according to the fault probability of each bus comprises:

and calculating all the buses which read the state change information to obtain fault probability, and arranging the buses from large to small to generate a bus fault set.

Technical Field

the invention relates to a bus fault probability calculation method based on abnormal information of an operation state, and belongs to the technical field of power grid safety and stability analysis and disaster prevention and reduction.

Background

The bus is an important device forming the power system, and the running state of the bus has important influence on the safe and stable running of the power grid. At present, a power grid dispatching control system generally judges the real-time running state of a bus qualitatively according to bus monitoring information, but cannot evaluate the running state of the bus quantitatively in a future period of time, so that the power grid dispatching control system cannot give a prevention control auxiliary decision according to a pre-judged fault condition of the bus which may occur, and risks are brought to safe and stable running of a power grid.

disclosure of Invention

The invention aims to provide a bus fault probability calculation method based on running state abnormal information, which is used for a power grid dispatching control system to pre-judge the influence of possible faults of a bus on the running of a power grid in advance, make a prevention control plan in advance and reduce the running risk of the power grid.

In order to achieve the purpose, the invention is realized by the following technical scheme:

the embodiment of the invention provides a bus fault probability calculation method based on running state abnormal information, which comprises the following steps:

Reading the running state and voltage information of the bus;

Screening abnormal signals for the read bus running state;

Determining the failure rate of each component associated with the running state information according to the screened abnormal signals; determining a bus voltage correction coefficient according to the read voltage information;

Calculating the fault probability of the bus according to the fault rate of each component associated with the running state information and the bus voltage correction coefficient;

and generating a bus fault set according to the fault probability of each bus.

further, reading the bus running state and the voltage information includes: and uploading the running state and real-time voltage information of the bus in real time through a data acquisition and monitoring control system.

Furthermore, the time frequency for reading the bus running state and the voltage information is not lower than once every 15 min.

Further, screening abnormal signals for the read bus running state includes:

Dividing the read bus running state information into 5 types: the bus circuit breaker state information, the current transformer state information, the voltage transformer state information, the bus protection device state information and the bus coupler protection device state information are obtained;

And respectively screening out fault, alarm and abnormal signals of each type of state information.

Further, determining the failure rate of each component associated with the operation state information according to the screened abnormal signals comprises:

The bus breaker failure rate value is as follows:

if the abnormal signal is the fault of the bus circuit breaker, the fault rate of the bus circuit breaker is 1;

if the abnormal signal is a bus breaker alarm, the failure rate of the bus breaker is 0.7;

if the abnormal signal is that the bus circuit breaker is abnormal, the failure rate of the bus circuit breaker is 0.4;

the failure rate of the current transformer takes values as follows:

If the abnormal signal is the fault of the current transformer, the fault rate of the current transformer is 1;

If the abnormal signal is a current transformer alarm, the fault rate of the current transformer is 0.7;

If the abnormal signal is that the current transformer is abnormal, the fault rate of the current transformer is 0.4;

The failure rate of the voltage transformer takes values as follows:

If the abnormal signal is the voltage transformer fault, the fault rate of the voltage transformer is 1;

If the abnormal signal is a voltage transformer alarm, the fault rate of the voltage transformer is 0.7;

if the abnormal signal is that the voltage transformer is abnormal, the fault rate of the voltage transformer is 0.4;

The failure rate of the bus protection device takes values as follows:

If the abnormal signal is the fault of the bus protection device, the fault rate of the bus protection device is 1;

if the abnormal signal is a bus protection device alarm, the failure rate of the bus protection device is 0.7;

If the abnormal signal indicates that the bus protection device is abnormal, the fault rate of the bus protection device is 0.4;

The failure rate of the bus tie protection device takes values as follows:

if the abnormal signal is the fault of the bus-coupled protection device, the fault rate of the bus-coupled protection device is 1;

If the abnormal signal is an alarm of the bus tie protection device, the failure rate of the bus tie protection device is 0.7;

and if the abnormal signal indicates that the bus tie protection device is abnormal, the failure rate of the bus tie protection device is 0.4.

Furthermore, if the same component of a certain bus has a plurality of abnormal signals within the statistical time, the maximum value of the fault rates corresponding to all the abnormal signals is taken as the fault rate of the component.

Further, determining a bus voltage correction factor according to the read voltage information includes:

if the voltage exceeds the absolute value of the upper limit/the lower limit of the voltage within the range of [0, 5%), the bus voltage correction coefficient takes the value of 1;

if the voltage exceeds the absolute value of the upper limit/the lower limit of the voltage within the range of [ 5-10%), the value of the bus voltage correction coefficient is 1.5;

If the voltage exceeds the upper/lower limit of the voltage by an absolute value within a range of [10, ∞) ], the bus voltage correction coefficient takes a value of 2.

further, calculating the bus fault probability according to the fault rate of each component associated with the operation state information and the bus voltage correction coefficient, and the method comprises the following steps:

wherein P is the bus fault probability, λ_{Circuit breaker}For bus breaker failure rate, λ_CTTo the failure rate of the current transformer, lambda_PTto the failure rate of the voltage transformer, lambda_{Bus protection}for bus protection device failure rate, λ_{Bus tie protection}For the failure rate of the buscouple protection device, lambda₀is a constant number, k_{Voltage of}is a bus voltage correction factor.

further, said λ₀The value is 0.02 times per station per year.

further, generating a bus fault set according to the fault probability of each bus comprises:

and calculating all the buses which read the state change information to obtain fault probability, and arranging the buses from large to small to generate a bus fault set.

the invention achieves the following beneficial effects: according to the bus fault probability calculation method based on the abnormal information of the running state, provided by the invention, on the basis of the traditional method for qualitatively judging the real-time running state of the bus according to the bus monitoring information, the bus fault probability in a period of time in the future is further quantitatively evaluated, and necessary information input support is provided for a power grid dispatching control system to formulate a prevention control plan in advance according to the influence of the fault possibly generated by the bus on the power grid running.

Drawings

FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention.

Detailed Description

the present invention will be further described with reference to the accompanying drawings.

The embodiment of the invention provides a bus fault probability calculation method based on running state abnormal information, which utilizes the state information of real-time running of a bus to pre-judge the possibility of fault in a period of time in the future. The future time period is generally before the time of the next real-time operation state information. If the time frequency of the operation state information proposed in the embodiment of the present invention is 15min, the future period of time is the possibility of the bus failing within 15min in the future.